NASCAR heads to the Lone Star State this weekend. They’ll take on the 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway located in Fort Worth, Texas. It’s the second trip of the season to Texas, but under much different circumstances, as the first race was the COTA road course. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks for the Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.
It’s the fourth 1.5-mile track that’s come up in the first 11 races of the Cup Series season, but each one has been completely unique in its own way, and Texas Motor Speedway provides a different challenge for the race teams. The track that previously held two Cup Series dates a year, now holds just the one in the spring. That gives us only three previous NextGen races to look at from the track, so we’ll lean on that as well as current form to make our picks for Texas.
NASCAR Picks: Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Kyle Larson +400
William Byron +500
Tyler Reddick +700
Ryan Blaney +900
Denny Hamlin +900
Christopher Bell +1000
Bubba Wallace +1600
Chase Briscoe +1800
Chase Elliott +1800
Joey Logano +2000
Kyle Busch +2200
Alex Bowman +2500
Ross Chastain +2500
Josh Berry +2800
Ty Gibbs +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Daniel Suarez +5000
Austin Cindric +6000
Carson Hocevar +6000
Noah Gragson +8500
Erik Jones +12000
Ryan Preece +12000
Austin Dillon +14000
Michael McDowell +15000
AJ Allmendinger +15000
Justin Haley +22000
Ricky Stenhouse +22000
Jesse Love +24000
Zane Smith +24000
John Hunter Nemechek +24000
Todd Gilliland +24000
Chad Finchum +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
NASCAR Picks: Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Chase Briscoe Over Joey Logano (-105)
There’s no bigger wild card in the field than Logano. The three-time defending champion can be running for first or battling hard for 25th on any given week. Lately, it’s been more of the latter. Last week, he crossed the line fifth but was disqualified in post-race inspection. Outside of that, it’s been rough. Logano only has one top 10 in the first 10 races of the season.
Chase Briscoe, on the other hand, has four top 10s this season and, after a rocky start adjusting to his new team, things are starting to click with three of those top 10s in the last five events. Briscoe is also sneaky good at Texas Motor Speedway, posting a 7.0 average finishing position in the NextGen era’s three races, second only to William Byron and Brad Keselowski. Briscoe has also finished better than Logano in both of the last two years.
Chase Elliott Top 10 Finish (+100)
Elliott is the defending race winner here at Texas Motor Speedway, and outside of the Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium, this was Elliott’s last points-paying win. In 2023, he finished just one spot outside of the top 10. While lacking in the overall speed, his teammates Larson and Byron have enjoyed lately, Elliott has been the model of consistency. In 10 races this season, he has six top 10s; if you take out the Superspeedway races, he’s five for seven. And he’s coming off 19 top 10s in 2024.
Ty Dillon Top 10 (+1600)
Are you looking for a sneaky top 10 longshot or strong fantasy play this week? Look no further than Kaulig’s Ty Dillon. Dillion has had a strong history in Texas. In his three NextGen starts, Dillion has averaged a 17.0 finishing position, despite starting those races for three separate teams. You could argue Dillion is having one of his best career years in 2025 with four finishes in the top 20 and finishes of 16th and 21st at the intermediate tracks of Darlington and Las Vegas, respectively. He’s a long-shot for a reason, but a long-shot worth tossing a few shekels on.
Tyler Reddick to Win (+700)
Tyler Reddick won the first NextGen race at Texas back in 2022 after leading 70 laps while he was still driving the #8 car for Richard Childress Racing. The last two seasons, he’s led 37 and 36 laps, respectively, and scored a fourth-place finish last season. We saw the 23XI intermediate speed flash again at Vegas, where both Reddick and teammate Bubba Wallace looked fast. He had a strong day at Darlington, where he led 42 laps and finished fourth. I think this is the week for the driver of Michael Jordan’s #45 car.
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