It’s down to the Final Four! The Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, is the host site for Saturday’s doubleheader to determine who will play in the National Championship game on Monday night for a chance to cut down the nets. This game will follow Florida vs Auburn, and tip-off is set for 8:49 p.m. ET on Saturday. Let’s dive in and take a look at this preview of the Houston vs. Duke NCAA Semifinal, as well as the predictions and best bets.
Houston vs Duke NCAA Semifinal Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets
Houston Cougars
The Houston Cougars are great at getting deep into March Madness, but they’ve struggled in the big moments. The same goes for head coach Kelvin Sampson, who makes his third Final Four appearance, but has yet to make it to the title game. Last year, meeting Duke in the Sweet 16 was their downfall; they have a chance to score revenge this year in the Final Four. This year, Sampson has a veteran squad with loads of experience, and arguably, this is his best team yet.
The Cougars have been great when it comes to three-pointers, making them at a nearly 40% rate. They also allow a lot of three-point attempts, which is an area in which Duke thrives. Houston hasn’t been great when it comes to free throws. They rank 322nd in free throw attempts per game on offense. It’s not much better on defense, where they are in the 200s in defensive free throws allowed. When it comes to March, free throws matter. Both Tennessee and Purdue had more free-throw attempts, and the Cougars almost paid for that. The Cougars do boast the best defense, according to KenPom, but Duke’s offense is the best ever recorded by KenPom.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke has a storied history of getting this far and getting the job done. Of course, that was with Coach K; now it’s time for coach Jonathan Scheyer to put his stamp on the job. He progressed a little farther in each of three NCAA Tournaments, making the Round of 32, then Elite Eight, and now the Final Four. His team is young, very young. But they’ve proven to be a talented bunch and have stood up to every test they’ve been given so far.
Duke has had high flying offense performances against both Baylor and Arizona, and then stifled the number one scoring offense in the country in the Alabama Crimson Tide, holding them to just 65 points in the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils boast the most efficient offense in KenPom Era history (1996 on). They have the number one player in the country in Cooper Flagg and have shown all season that they are the best team in the NCAA. Their biggest flaw is youth. If they can overcome the experience and play like they have been, they’ll be a tough team to beat.
Houston vs Duke NCAA Semifinal Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets
The Pick: Duke -4.5 (-120)
This one is simple for me. Duke is a great team with a ton of talent that seems destined to get to the finals. Cooper Flagg and company have been cooking. They’ve been 4.5 point or more favorites in 34 games this season, they are 22-12 ATS. Overall, Duke is 24-13 ATS, and as you can see, they are used to the high expectations, and they’ve delivered. Houston is just 20-17 this season ATS, 1-0 as underdogs, a situation they haven’t been in many times. It’s an all #1 seed Final Four for only the second time in history, and favorites have gone 40-27 ATS this tournament.
Houston needs a lot of things to go right in this game for them to win; for the Blue Devils, they just need to play their game. With the best offense in KenPom host Roy, combined with a top-five defense, they are just that good. That puts more pressure on Houston and Kelvin Sampson has proven over time he just can’t get over that hump. It’s been an impressive run for the Cougars, but I believe that’ll end Saturday night as the Blue Devils punch their ticket to the National Championship game.
Player Prop: Tyrese Proctor Over 14 Points (+110)
Houston is going to do everything they can to slow down Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, the Blue Devils dynamic duo. This is the perfect spot for Proctor to step up and be the guy who makes the difference Saturday night. With the focus on Flagg and Knuppel it’s going to give Proctor some open shots. Proctor has averaged 11.6 points per game and shoots 39.3% from downtown. He’s shown up big in big spots, dropping 17 on the Crimson Tide in the Elite Eight.
25 against Baylor and 19 against Mount Saint Mary’s put him well over this total in three of four games, averaging 17 points per game during March Madness. He’s gone over this total in four of the last five games and 10 of the last 16. Tyrese Proctor is the not so secret, secret weapon for the Blue Devils Saturday night.
