March Madness Sweet 16 (March 27th) Best Bets & Analysis
Some would say we had a lackluster opening four days of the tournament this year. My answer would be, what did you expect to happen? There were still a few upsets and good games but is it so bad that we have the elite of the elite in the Sweet 16? This year the best teams have been so much better than the rest, it is not surprising to see them in the second weekend.
Despite not having a so-called “Cinderella”, we have some amazing matchups and storylines beginning on Thursday. We will run through the entire betting card and see if we can pad our bankroll going into the weekend. As always, please shop around for the best number – the numbers being used are from DraftKings Sportsbook to stay consistent within the article.
BYU Cougars vs Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5)
If this total holds, we are looking at the highest total since 1995. The Crimson Tide may be favored here but BYU is coming in as the hotter team, which has shown to lead to success in March. Styles do make fights and these teams both play similarly, but which has the advantage? My answer would be it depends on who you like to win the game. We will get a little deeper on that in the next section but this is definitely on paper one of the more exciting games this week.
Who Wins? Why?
The Tide roll here. Too much depth and too many shooters. Both teams play a similar style and pace but Alabama is just better at it. When we look at both offenses and defenses, BYU has the biggest weakness, which is on the defensive side. This is not just any weakness but perhaps the only place you cannot be weak against the Tide. BYU is outside of the top 240 in three-point defense. Add that to the fact, Alabama has not shot the ball well all tournament. On the opposite side, BYU is heavily reliant on the three – 39% of their points come from there. Alabama is not known for their defense but they do a good job running teams off the line.
If BYU is not hitting those outside shots, how do they score? They don’t get to the rim or free throw line at all, so if they have an off night, this could be ugly. Bama shoots the three at a high clip as well but they have multiple players who can attack the rim and get to the line, led by Mark Sears. BYU allowed Wisconsin to score 1.25 points per possession and despite shooting nearly 46% from deep, they barely hung on. This Tide offense has not scratched the surface of their ceiling thus far and going against a vulnerable BYU defense, I believe that happens here.
Best Bet: Alabama -5.5
Maryland Terrapins vs Florida Gators (-6.5)
Both of these teams were in two of the better games of the first four days. Ironically, each had to claw back in the second half to advance. Similar paths for each as they were dominant in the opening game and were lucky to be here. From a matchup perspective, this is one of the trickier games to handicap, as compelling cases could be made for either side. There is a slight travel advantage for Maryland as they were a short flight away from San Francisco. Florida on the other hand is taking the cross-country flight to a place where Todd Golden used to call home and had a lot of success.
There are three key components that I highlighted that will decide this game. Defending without fouling, bench production, and three-point defense. In their first two games, Florida has attempted 67 free throws. Maryland can not afford to get their starters in any foul trouble due to their lack of bench production. Maryland is outside the top 300 in bench minutes while Florida can play up to ten players who can produce at a high level. Opponents are shooting around 23% in the tournament against both Maryland and Florida. Is that an outlier or can we expect some positive regression? A little of both would be my answer, but both teams were a bit lucky as they allowed good looks but opponents just could not connect.
Who Wins? Why?
I have said Florida was the best team in the country since they went into Auburn without their best player and dominated. Keep that same energy here by picking them to not only win but cover the spread. The three-point defense has to be better. Despite the Huskies shooting poorly from deep, it was not due to good defense. Gators have multiple bodies to throw at Queen and will not have to rely on double teams, which allows perimeter defenders to stay home and prevent three-pointers.
I don’t want to make it sound this simple but I don’t think the Terps have enough firepower. Florida played their C- game for most of that Uconn game and still prevailed. That scare I think woke them up and they will come into this as motivated as ever. Their depth, shot-making, and ability to score at all three levels will eventually overwhelm the Terps. The game plan should be to attack Queen in pick and rolls as much as possible and force him to defend in space. I just can’t see a path where at least one of Marylands’ bigs are not in foul trouble around the eight-minute media timeout. Chomp Chomp.
Best Bet: Florida -5.5
Duke Blue Devils (-9.5) vs Arizona Wildcats
Here we go again. Caleb Love against the Duke Blue Devils. A rivalry that has nothing short of amazing moments, well not so much if you are Coach K. The Wildcats survived a late scare from Oregon but they should have put that away far earlier. They fought back from being down big early on and were led by the shot-making of none other than Caleb Love who had five made threes. The Duke domination continued as they were close to flawless against Baylor. I would love to give everyone some special analysis on the Blue Devils but their dominance has been on full display all year. There are not many advance metrics that they do not lead the pack in and where it matters most (to us), they cover numbers regardless of size.
The two teams matched up to begin the year and you can take away what you will from that but both teams are extremely different. Duke won and convincingly covered that game, behind a 24-point, 7 rebound game from Cooper Flagg. Blue Devils held the Wildcats to 55 points and did not allow them to run nor make any shots from three. That will have to change for Arizona if they want to stay within this number and pull off the upset. As for Duke, same recipe – run them off the three-point line and force them to finish at the rim where you are elite.
Who Wins? Why?
Do I want to bet against Duke? The team is looking as dominant as the back-to-back UConn national championship teams. The team that has covered nine straight (with a healthy Flagg) and has put games away by the eight-minute media timeout in the second half. Yes, I am. Do I hate myself? Maybe, but I like the Wildcats (to cover) in this one. They have to turn this into a track meet and force Duke to defend in space and not go against that set half-court defense. Only six transition points were scored by the Wildcats in the first meeting which has to be doubled if not trippled if they want to keep this competitive.
Three-point shooting is critical for the Wildcats also. They shot poorly from three in the first meeting but have been lights out in the tournament. Four players hit two or more threes against Akron, which needs to be the formula in this meeting. They have the size to hold up on the perimeter, which not many teams have but how they defend is the most critical point.
With no Brown, Duke is likely to run a lot of drop coverage which is going to allow open looks for the Wildcats. We will need a vintage Caleb Love game here and he is more than capable of doing so. He is shooting over 45% from deep in his last seven games while the team has been on fire from deep as well. Carter Bryant and Tre Townsend are going to be x-factors on both ends and if they can match the production of the ancillary pieces of Duke, I believe the Wildcats can keep this between a possession or two.
Best Bet: Arizona +9.5
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (-5.5)
The only double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16 just so happens to have the most former 5-star recruits. Of each team that made the second weekend, I think the Hogs have been the most impressive. Not to mention they will likely be getting their best player back from injury in this one. Adou Thiero has missed the last month with a knee injury but according to Coach Cal, he will be back in a limited role. Thiero adds another two-way player who can attack the rim with the best of them. He also is a menace on the defensive end – tallying 2 or more steals in six of his last eleven.
Red Raiders are also hoping to get sharp shooting guard Chance McMillan back who has not played since March 13th. Getting him back is a big boost due to the Red Raiders’ poor shooting in the first two rounds. Despite shooting around 22% from deep, the Red Raiders still looked dominant for the majority of their two games, specifically in the second half against Drake.
Who Wins? Why?
Cal is at his best in these spots. He thrives as a motivator in underdog spots and i believe he does it one more time. Getting out and running is the key for the Hogs. The Red Raider halfcourt defense is excellent and the shooting woes of Arkansas don’t help their case. They have a much bigger team and can throw multiple defenders at JT Toppin. The biggest advantage is that they don’t have to double-team him due to the defensive prowess of Aidoo, who I expect to spend a lot of time on.
The depth of Arkansas and their multiple-shot makers are another reason I love this matchup. They have 3-4 guys who can score 20 or more at any given time and I’m not including Thiero. Possibly some positive shooting regression coming from three for the Hogs and their ability to defend the three. The looks will be there, they just have to jack them. The Red Raiders allowed around 35% from three through the first two rounds.
Then pick and roll defense is critical for the Hogs but I believe their size and length will cause problems for the Red Raiders. If they can get live ball turnovers and turn them into transition baskets, they will be in great shape. Look for Boogie Fland to have a big game in this spot. He has been back for a few games and now has had some time to practice and get better acclimated. Hogs cover and win behind a big performance from Fland.
