One day of Madness down – many more to go. We’ve got another full slate of games on tap tomorrow, as the NCAA Tournament field of 64 is winnowed down to 32 for the weekend. Who will the final 16 teams making it to the second round be? Read on. Here are your winning March Madness First Round picks for Friday, March 21st. Let’s go!
(I use advanced stats (strength of schedule, point differential, etc.) to come up with my lines for these games, and then I make my picks accordingly based on what spreads are being offered at the books).
March Madness First Round Picks: Friday, March 21st
(9) Baylor vs (8) Mississippi State 12:15 p.m.
We kick things off with a fun one in the East Region between a couple of middle-of-the-pack teams from their conferences. I’m going with the slight underdog – the Big 12’s Baylor Bears and their top draft prospect V.J. Edgecombe to get past the SEC’s Mississippi State. My line is Baylor -2, so I’ll gladly grab them plus the points.
Pick: Baylor +1 (-104)
(15) Robert Morris vs (2) Alabama 12:40 p.m.
You would think that a 22-point spread would be unplayable, but I say otherwise. Robert Morris vs Alabama should be a squash match – my line is Alabama -26. And I have the Crimson Tide picked to make it to the finals, so they better steamroll the Colonials.
Pick: Alabama -22 (-110)
(14) Lipscomb vs (3) Iowa State 1:30 p.m.
More chalk for me here in the 3 vs 14 game in the South Region. Iowa State is a top 10 team in KenPom’s rankings, while Lipscomb is 82nd, which is respectable for a team from a tiny conference. My math has this one Iowa State -18.
Pick: Iowa State -14.5 (-110)
(12) Colorado State vs (5) Memphis 2:00 p.m.
I’m disappointed that the books have caught on to my upset pick – #12 Colorado State over #5 Memphis – and have instilled them as the favorite on the spread. Very surprising. This game should be very, very close – I have it Colorado State -1. I found Memphis +2 at a book, so that will have to be my play, although I think the Rams will win. So I’m cheering for a one-point Colorado State win, I guess.
Pick: Memphis +2 (-110)
(16) Mount St. Mary’s vs (1) Duke 2:50 p.m.
Mount St. Mary’s reward for getting through the First Four is a date with Duke tomorrow. Lucky them. And Cooper Flagg is reportedly pain-free now. My line is Duke -38!!
Pick: Duke -32.5 (-105)
(10) Vanderbilt vs (7) Saint Mary’s 3:15 p.m.
The 10 vs 7 game in the East Region is another one where I think one team will win but they won’t cover the spread. The team advancing will be the Saint Mary’s Gaels, but I only have them as a 2.5-point favorite. So the Vanderbilt Commodores are getting my money.
Pick: Vanderbilt +4.5 (-115)
(11) North Carolina vs (6) Ole Miss 4:05 p.m.
The North Carolina Tar Heels were one of my Cinderella teams I picked before the First Four to make a little bit of a run in the main tournament, and they looked the part, dismantling San Diego State to earn the #11 seed. HOWEVER, in terms of the spread, I have the Tar Heels and the Ole Miss Rebels game as basically a pick em, so the Rebels plus the points is the play.
Pick: Ole Miss +1.5 (+100)
(13) Grand Canyon vs (4) Maryland 4:35 p.m.
The Grand Canyon vs Maryland game in the West Region will probably be a runaway Terrapins win, however the spread on the books is too wide for my liking. I have this one Maryland -17.5, so there is plenty of value on the WAC’s Lopes.
Pick: Grand Canyon +10.5 (-110)
(16) Norfolk State vs (1) Florida 6:50 p.m.
Speaking of blowouts – we have our second 1 vs 16 matchup of the day, this time in the West Region. The advanced stats have Norfolk State as a negative team, which you don’t see often in NCAA Tournament teams. The Gators by 28.5 isn’t wide enough – I have it Florida -32.
Pick: Florida -28.5 (-105)
(14) Troy vs (3) Kentucky 7:10 p.m.
In their first season post-John Calipari, Kentucky is still Kentucky. And it’s doubtful that they’ll get bounced in the first round this year, as they have done in two of the past three season. However (there’s that word again), my calculations have the second place team in the Sun Belt keeping this one closer than the books have it. Kentucky -10.5.
Pick: Troy +11.5 (-112)
(10) New Mexico vs (7) Marquette 7:35 p.m.
We’ve got no blowout here in the 7 vs 10 battle in the South Region. We also, unfortunately, don’t have playable spread. Your best bet for this game is to just take Marquette on the moneyline, because I have this game lined up as Marquette -4. But since I’m picking every game on the spread, the Golden Eagles are the play – barely.
Pick: Marquette -3.5 (-115)
(13) Akron vs (4) Arizona 9:25 p.m.
The Akron Zips have made the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years for the first time in the school’s history on the back of 28-6 season and a regular season and tournament championship in the MAC. But they’ve yet to win a March Madness game in their history. This isn’t the year that ends. Arizona -19.5.
Pick: Arizona -14.5 (-110)
(9) Oklahoma vs (8) UConn 9:25 p.m.
Speaking of back-to-back – the champion of the past two seasons, the Connecticut Huskies return to the tournament despite taking a step back this season. While I have them escaping the first round and this 8 vs 9 matchup, I only have them favored by 2.5 points, so the 13th(!!) place team in the SEC, the Oklahoma Sooners, are the play.
Pick: Oklahoma +5.5 (-107)
(11) Xavier vs (6) Illinois 9:45 p.m.
The Xavier Musketeers mushed one of my First Four best bets as well as a parlay, so they are in my bad books. But hopefully this isn’t a “fool me once…” situation, because I have this game Illinois -6.
Pick Illinois -3.5 (-102)
(15) Bryant vs (2) Michigan State 10:00 p.m.
The American East double-champ Bryant Bulldogs are another one of those rare negative team based on advanced stats. And I expect them to get crushed by even more points than the bookies do. Michigan State -24.
Pick: Michigan State -17.5 (-105)
(12) Liberty vs (5) Oregon 10:10 p.m.
The bookies and bettors are on to the #12 seed often being a Cinderella, because they’ve got the 12 vs 5 matchup in East Region lined up as a close one as well. However, it’s not close enough, as I predict the Oregon Ducks will beat the Liberty Flames by nine points.
Pick: Oregon -6.5 (-120)
