UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs Dolidze comes to us this week from the Apex. These two middleweights get their second look at each other after Vettori picked up a decision win two years ago. Have things changed or will we see some similar action this time? We’ll hit that fight and dig through the rest of the card to give you our UFC Vegas 103 best bets. Come check out these UFC Vegas 104 picks for Saturday.
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UFC vegas 104: vettori vs Dolidze – Predictions & Best Bets
Marvin Vettori ML (-155) vs. Roman Dolidze
In the main event, I think Vettori gets his second win over Dolidze. In their first fight, he was simply more crisp on the feet and seems to land some of the bigger blows as well. He never once had to use his wrestling and top control in that fight. Knowing that he has that in his back pocket gives me more faith. Plus, I think that a five-round fight favors his high energy and cardio.
Ryan Spann ML (+142) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
This is a line that simply keeps confusing me. Ryan Spann may have fallen on hard times, but he should be the much faster fighter coming up from light heavyweight. Cortes-Acosta has used that as his primary weapon at heavyweight, and it should now be a disadvantage. Add in that Spann has an underrate submission game and likely more power in his hands – you have to like him as a dog here.
Andre Lima – Wins via (T)KO (+275)
One thing that Andre Lima does exceptionally well is kick the lead leg. One thing that Daniel Barez does is stand heavy on that front leg consistently. That should allow Lima to destabilize Barez early in the fight. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a leg kick TKO in this one. Even if he doesn’t, Barez should be a sitting duck by the middle of the fight.
Sam Hughes ML (+195) vs Stephanie Luciano
Another underdog I’m high on is Sam Hughes. We’ve seen Luciano have trouble dealing with the grappling and physicality of Talita Alencar in the past. While Hughes is not as decorated of a jiu jitsu practicioner, she is far more physical than Alencar. As a result, I see her being able to pin Luciano up against the cage for large portions of time – ultimately wearing her down en route to a decision.
Cody Gibson +3.5 (+120) vs Da’Mon Blackshear
I considered playing Cody Gibson’s moneyline here, but I settled for the spread. I expect this to be a close fight in a lot of ways. Neither are big knockout threats on the feet, and both of them have a solid grappling game. Both have used their wrestling lately, but it may just cancel itself out here. If it does, you can expect Cody Gibson to steal one round on the feet with his striking and get this to cash for us.
Carlos Vera – Wins via Submission (+1200)
If you listen to the MMA Gambling Podcast, you’re probably saying, “but Gumby, I thought you said Josias Musasa was going to win?”. I did pick Musasa to win, but these lines have gone crazy in his favor. We’ve also never seen any real submission defense out of Musasa and Vera is pretty crafty on the mat. It may only take one exchange for these longshot odds to come through.
If you’d like even more UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs Dolidze bets, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
