Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for March 9. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for March 9.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – March 9
Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Smoothie King Center – New Orleans, LA
Broadcast – NBA TV
On Sunday night, we’re going to ride with the Grizzlies to score first at -170. On the season, they’ve been the best team in the league when it comes to scoring first at 69. 3%. That figure is 9.0% better than every other team in the league. A lot of that can be attributed to their pair of bigs who have been exceptional on the tipoff (74.2%). All of that would be enough to play the Grizzlies on their own, but the Pelicans’ numbers don’t hurt the cause either. They’re 29th in the NBA in tip win percantage as one of only two teams that are below 30% in terms of their win rate. They are also hovering right around the bottom third of the league in first bucket success rate.
If we’re looking for a specific player to get behind here, it would have to be Desmond Bane. Bane has been all over the early shot log for the Grizzlies in recent games. If you look at their first three shots in the last three games, Bane accounts for 44.4% of all of those shots. On top of that, he’s taken the first shot in each of the last two games. That kind of volume just can’t be ignored – so we’ll ride with him here.
First Scorer Bet for March 9: Desmond Bane (+500)
Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tipoff – 9:00 pm EST
Moda Center – Portland, OR
Broadcast – NBA TV
If you look at these two teams’ tip rates, they are practically the same. The Blazers actually have a slight 1.6% lead over the Pistons. However, when you look at how well they convert those chances, they couldn’t be more different. The Blazers are scoring first 40.6% of the time, which puts them in 28th place in the league. The Pistons, on the other hand, are getting 56.3% of the first buckets. That’s good enough for 6th place and good enough for us to back them here.
As for picking a specific player on Detroit, there are really only two names I’m looking at. Cade Cunningham and Ausar Thompson are getting the vast majority of the early looks lately. If you take the first three shot attempts in each of the last three games, those two account for 88.9% of all of those attempts. That includes every single first shot and all but one second shot. While Cunningham is a bit more of a frequent flyer than Thompson, the number on Thompson is twice as high. There’s more value on his name there and he’s definitely worth a look.
First Scorer Bet for March 9: Ausar Thompson (+650)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for March 9, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
