Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for March 4. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for March 4.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS
NBA First Scorer Props – March 4
Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Kia Center – Orlando, FL
Broadcast – NBA TV
When you look at the surface stats for each of these two teams when it comes to the jump, they are pretty close. Toronto holds just a 1.7% advantage when it comes to winning jumpballs. However, the difference is that number for the Raptors has been pulled down by a lot of fill-ins. Starting center Jakob Poeltl holds a 11.6% advantage over the rest of the Magic team. When you combine that with their solid first scorer rate – 60.7%, which puts them at 3rd in the NBA – then you have to expect them to get on the board first here. And even better, we’re getting that play at +105.
Picking a player to get that first bucket for the Raptors is a little trickier. A lot of the players getting early action will be out hurt for this one or are at least listed as questionable. One that gets a fair amount of early looks and is feeling good for Tuesday is the aforementioned Poeltl. He took two of their first three shots two games ago. I like him to get something close to the hoop early on in this one.
First Scorer Bet for March 4: Jakob Poeltl (+600)
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tipoff – 10:30 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, CA
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Lakers are a team on the rise in the first bucket market. No, it’s not the addition of Luka Doncic, but rather the subtraction of Anthony Davis that is doing the heavy lifting. Jaxson Hayes is putting up gaudy numbers on the tip – well over 80.0%. With tip winners getting roughly 66.7% of all first buckets, that’s enough to tail the Lakers alone. Then we add in that the Pelicans are one of two teams below 30.0% on the tip (the Bulls being the other), and it makes it even easier to like the Lakers to score first here.
If we’re going to go with a player, the Lakers are hard to nail down as well. They have a lot of people listed as questionable for Tuesday’s action too, which leaves us looking for players with any recent action. However, if you dig into the type of player that the Pelicans are letting up first scores too, we get the trend we need. The last three they’ve allowed have been outside shots to guards. That sounds like an Austin Reaves spot to me – and he’s looking healthy enough to suit up tonight.
First Scorer Bet for March 4: Austin Reaves (+600)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for March 4, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
