Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for March 1. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for March 1.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – March 1
Washington Wizards vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tipoff – 6:00 pm EST
Spectrum Center – Charlotte, NC
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Hornets have been the better of these two teams in scoring the first bucket on the year. They are a league average team, coming in at an even 50.0%. That’ll give them a 5.2% advantage over the Wizards, who rank in the bottom third of the NBA. They’ll also have a massive advantage on the tipoff. The Hornets are getting the first possession 62.1% of the time. That number is actually dragged down by the games that Mark Williams was hurt for – as he has a 83.3% tip rate. Meanwhile, Alexandre Sarr has a 46.5% win rate. With the tip winner gettint 66.0% of the first buckets at this point, that signals that we have a nice value on the Hornets to score first at -145.
If we’re looking for a specific player for the first bucket, it’s hard to look anywhere outside of Mark Williams. While he may be the chalk play for the day, I think the value is still there. He has taken two of the first three shots for the Hornets in each of the last two games. Also, the Wizards are a touch banged up down low, which could give him more opportunity to get that early finish at the rim.
First Scorer Bet for March 1: Mark Williams (+425)
Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
Wells Fargo Center – Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast – ABC
Saturday night’s game is a rare chance to get behind the Warriors. With the injury to Joel Embiid, the 76ers will now rely on Guerschon Yabusele to take all of the tips. He’s been one of the very worst tip guys this year, with a win rate of 23.8%. The Warriors have been using Draymond Green on the tip as of late. While he’s far from being one of the best in the league, he’s grabbing the first possession at a clip that’s 9.5% better than Yabusele. The Warriors tend to make the most of their first possessions with a rate far better than their tip success. As a result, I like the Warriors here.
The guy getting the bulk of the early work for the Warriors as of late is Jimmy Butler. If you take the first three shots for the Warriors the last three games, Jimmy Butler has 33.3% of all of those shots. He has also taken two of the first shots for the Warriors in that span. Again, it’s one of the chalkier options on the day, but I still think he’s an easy play for Saturday.
First Scorer Bet for March 1: Jimmy Butler (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for March 1, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
