NASCAR leaves the drafting tracks of Daytona and Atlanta to make some left and right turns this weekend in Austin, Texas. They’ll take on a smaller circuit than has been raced the past four seasons. Superspeedways are chaotic for betting, so this is the first real week of NASCAR betting and I’m excited! So, let’s dive in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at COTA.
From 2021-2024 NASCAR ran the 20-turn, 3.426-mile Grand Prix Circuit. This year, they’ve shortened the course to the “NASCAR Circuit” which will be 18 turns and 2.356 miles in length. NASCAR has had four different winners in four events. Neither of the top two favorites this week are past winners here. Connor Zilisch will be making his Cup Series debut in the #87 Red Bull-sponsored car for Trackhouse Racing, and surprisingly he’s a co-favorite to win.
When betting on this race, the main thing to look at is past COTA races. Specifically the last three, the 2021 race was a rainy mess and in the old car. Looking at how drivers fare on the other road courses is a great comparison tool. I exclude the Chicago Street race from that, although a few things can be taken from that event as well.
NASCAR Picks: EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at COTA Odds and Best Bets
Shane Van Gisbergen +500 ($10 wins $50)
Connor Zilisch +500 ($10 wins $50)
Tyler Reddick +750 ($10 wins $75)
William Byron +900 ($10 wins $90)
Christopher Bell +900 ($10 wins $90)
Kyle Larson +1000 ($10 wins $100)
Chase Elliott +1200 ($10 wins $120)
Ty Gibbs +1400 ($10 wins $140)
Ross Chastain +1400 ($10 wins $140)
AJ Allmendinger +1400 ($10 wins $140)
Alex Bowman +2000 ($10 wins $200)
Chris Buescher +2500 ($10 wins $250)
Kyle Busch +3000 ($10 wins $300)
Daniel Suarez +3000 ($10 wins $300)
Chase Briscoe +3000 ($10 wins $300)
Austin Cindric +3500 ($10 wins $350)
Michael McDowell +4000 ($10 wins $400)
Ryan Blaney +5000 ($10 wins $500)
Denny Hamlin +6000 ($10 wins $600)
Joey Logano +6000 ($10 wins $600)
Carson Hocevar +10000 ($10 wins $1000)
Bubba Wallace +15000 ($10 wins $1500)
Brad Keselowski +20000 ($10 wins $2000)
Todd Gilliland +20000 ($10 wins $2000)
Zane Smith +20000 ($10 wins $2000)
Noah Gragson +20000 ($10 wins $2000)
Ryan Preece +25000 ($10 wins $2500)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +25000 ($10 wins $2500)
Erik Jones +25000 ($10 wins $2500)
Justin Haley +30000 ($10 wins $3000)
Josh Berry +30000 ($10 wins $3000)
John Hunter Nemechek +30000 ($10 wins $3000)
Cole Custer +35000 ($10 wins $3500)
Riley Herbst +35000 ($10 wins $3500)
Austin Dillion +35000 ($10 wins $3500)
Ty Dillion +200000 ($10 wins $20000)
Cody Ware ($10 wins $20000)
NASCAR Picks: EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at COTA Odds and Best Bets
Shane Van Gisbergen Over Connor Zilisch (-145)
It’s absurd to have Zilisch as the co-favorite for this race and match him up against SVG. I love Zilisch, I’ve bet on him to win the Xfinity Series championship, and I think he’s the next great one. However, his first start in the Cup Series at 18 years old. Let’s pump the brakes.
Zilisch opened Sunday night at 100/1 odds and was quickly bet down. Apparently the books mistook people grabbing a mistake line for thinking he should be a favorite. SVG needs no introduction, he’s the man. He whooped up on the field in the Xfinity Series last year. He held his own in Cup, in Kaulig equipment. Now he’s Bach in a Trackhouse car and should compete for the win. Zilisch is going to have one hell of a career, but going against him the first time up. I’m also betting Van Gisbergen to win this race at 5/1 odds.
Chris Buescher Top 10 Finish (+100)
One of my favorite bets this weekend is for Chris Buescher to finish inside of the top 10. In the NextGen era of the Cup Series car, nobody has a better average finish on road courses than Chris Buescher who checks in at an 8.82 average finish.
He’s finished eighth place at COTA the last two seasons, and before a 17th place finish at The Roval last fall, Buescher had secured 13 finishes of 11th place or better on road courses. Buescher is underrated, and my favorite bet this week. I also love betting him 25/1 to win the race.
Alex Bowman Top 10 Finish (+100)
While we are talking about reliable drivers who love to finish in the top 10 consistently. Look no further than Alex Bowman. Bowman has an average finish over the last three COTA races of 3.0. That’s right, he’s finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the last three Cup Series races here.
In 10 of the last 15 road course races, Bowman has finished inside of the top 15, consistently close to the top 10. Six of those have been top 10 finishes. On top of that, Bowman also won the Chicago Street race last season which isn’t included in those stats. Bowman loves COTA, and he’s one of the best drivers week to week to target for a top-10 finish.
Kyle Larson to Win (+1000)
Kyle Larson is being disrespected this week. I fully expected Larson to be co-favorites with SVG going into COTA. Larson is one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series. He grabbed two wins on road courses last year including the most recent at The Roval and has six in his career. A win at COTA has evaded him so far, although he may have won the inaugural race in 2021 if it hadn’t been rain-shortened. Larson was running top five last season before a late spin ruined his day.
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