The college basketball season continues to roll along. We’re less than a month away from the First Four tipping off on March 18th. Teams are trying to secure those key wins now, and looking forward to their conference tournaments as March Madness gets ready to ramp up. Let’s take a look at some Bracketology Bets for March Madness.
Selection Sunday will take place Sunday, March 16th just two days before the First Four tips off to start the madness. The books offer a few different future options when it comes to March Madness betting. Making the field of 68, to be the #1 overall seed, and how many teams from the biggest three conferences will make the dance. Let’s dive in and take a look at these Bracketology Bets!
Bracketology Bets: Odds and Best Bets for March Madness
To Make the Field of 68
Nebraska -390
Vanderbilt -200
Wake Forrest -115
Arkansas -105
Georgia +135
SMU +140
North Carolina +165
Oklahoma +210
Indiana +270
North Carolina (+165)
North Carolina is the first team I’m betting on to make the big dance. Look, the way these college selections happen, sometimes it’s a popularity contest. Most protections for the Tar Heels have them in the “First Four out” currently. If it comes down to a close contest between let North Carolina in, or someone else of a smaller brand. There’s a decent chance the Tar Heels name could sway votes.
On top of that, there are a few clear paths for North Carolina to earn that bid. The Tar Heels are just 1-10 in “Quad One” games, but they also don’t have any glaring ugly losses to much inferior teams. They’ve got a date with the Devil (Duke Blue Devils to be exact) on March 8th. A massive win over an arch-rival like that, that close to Selection Sunday could certainly sway some votes.
Even keeping that game close, and winning the five other games in their way could be huge. We’ve also seen two massive upsets in the ACC Tournament the last three seasons with #10 North Carolina State winning it last year, and #7 Virginia Tech just three years ago. Give me the Tar Heels to sneak in.
Indiana (+270)
Speaking of legendary programs, may I present to you the Indiana Hoosiers. Their case is a simple one, they are in one of the strongest conferences in the NCAA this season, and they’ve had their share of the big ones. They’ve also come with some heartbreaks, but the Hoosiers are a team that holds their fate in their own hands.
They have a massive game against in state rival and #13 ranked Purdue on Sunday, that game alone could decide the fate of the Hoosiers. Indiana lost by just five points on the road to the Boilermakers a few weeks ago. If they can win Sunday, and follow it up by sweeping the rest of the regular season including a Quad One win over Oregon in a few weeks and they just might be dancing.
To be the #1 Overall Seed in the Tournament
Duke -20000
Florida -220
Houston -210
Alabama +120
Tennessee +180
Iowa State +1500
Texas A&M +6000
Alabama (+120)
This is a tough market. Auburn isn’t even being offered at this point, and the next four on the list are at un-betable odds. Alabama is the only team I can make a case for, and even then it’s going to take some help. If the Crimson Tide can run the table and collect wins over #17 Kentucky, #21 Mississippi State, #6 Tennessee, #2 Florida, and then most importantly, over arch-rival #1 Auburn on the road. It’s a daunting schedule that lies ahead, but if the Tide want to prove they are worthy of that top seed. There’s a clear path to go and take it.
Bracketology Bets: Odds and Best Bets for March Madness
Number of SEC Teams to make the tournament Over 11.5 (-125)
It’s no surprise the SEC is the toughest conference in NCAA basketball this season. They’ll likely have multiple #1 seeds, and nine teams are already almost locks to make the show (Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Missouri, Mississippi State.)
They have five additional teams on the bubble. Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, and Vanderbilt. Just three of these teams need to make the dance to get paid on this one, and trust being in the SEC this year is a boost to their stock. Vanderbilt’s odds above reflect their great chance of making it. In Andy Katz’s most recent Bracket Prediction, he has 13 teams in. Give me at least 12 to make it and cash the over.
Number of Big Ten Teams to make the tournament Over 9.5 (-105)
The Big 10 isn’t very far behind the SEC for the best conference in NCAA basketball this season. The Big Ten has eight teams pretty safely in the field at this point (Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, UCLA, Illinois, and Oregon.)
Nebraska is still a bubble team, but like Vanderbilt Nebraska’s odds reflect them likely making it. That leaves it up to Ohio State to do the heavy lifting on this one. A true bubble team, the rest of their schedule isn’t brutal, so they’ll need to win some impressive games as they make that final push. I believe they’ll do just enough to secure a spot.
Number of Big 12 Teams to make the tournament Under 7.5 (-105)
If the big conferences are going to get everyone in, I think that leaves the Big 12 holding the bag on the outside looking in. The committee is going to want to have their strongest conferences represented. The Big 12 has six teams on the safe side of things Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas, and Baylor.
That leaves BYU, Cincinnati, and West Virginia as the Big 12’s three teams that would need to take at least two spots. BYU’s stock has been up big recently with wins over Kansas State and Kansas which has them in some projections. Cincinnati’s Quad One record and lack of Quad Two games may be what hurts them the most. West Virginia is heading in the wrong direction and all three of these teams could be left out. Give me the under on the Big 12.
