The NASCAR season is in full swing as the drivers and teams head to Hampton, Georgia this weekend for the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The 1.540-mile quad-oval was reconstructed after the 2021 season. The track now races like a mini-Daytona, with the same elements of drafting we saw in last week’s Daytona 500. So let’s jump in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks and odds for the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
William Byron won last week’s Daytona 500 for a second straight season after a wreck on the final lap vaulted him from seventh place to the lead as the smoke cleared. Tyler Reddick, 7-time Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson, Chase Briscoe and John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the top five. On Wednesday, Briscoe was assessed a major fine, losing 100 points, and 10 playoff points and his Crew Chief James Small suspended four races for making a modification to their spoiler that was found after the race.
While Atlanta seems less chaotic than Daytona, it’s still a drafting-style track. Superspeedway racing is one of my favorite styles to bet on, but it is also one of the riskiest. You should never bet more than you are willing to lose, and at Atlanta, that’s even more true. Approach this race as if you’ll lose it all and be happy if you win anything. This race will be chaotic and full of wrecks. Next week, we get to a lot more predictable tracks!
NASCAR Picks: Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Ryan Blaney +1000 ($10 wins $100)
Joey Logano +1000 ($10 wins $100)
Kyle Busch +1200 ($10 wins $120)
Austin Cindric +1200 ($10 wins $120)
Brad Keselowski +1600 ($10 wins $160)
Denny Hamlin +1600 ($10 wins $160)
William Byron +1700 ($10 wins $170)
Chase Elliott +1700 ($10 wins $170)
Christopher Bell +1700 ($10 wins $170)
Kyle Larson +1800 ($10 wins $180)
Bubba Wallace +1800 ($10 wins $180)
Chris Buescher +2000 ($10 wins $200)
Daniel Suarez +2200 ($10 wins $220)
Tyler Reddick +2500 ($10 wins $250)
Alex Bowman +2500 ($10 wins $250)
Ross Chastain +2500 ($10 wins $250)
Chase Briscoe +3000 ($10 wins $300)
Michael McDowell +3500 ($10 wins $350)
Ty Gibbs +3500 ($10 wins $350)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +3500 ($10 wins $350)
Ryan Preece +4000 ($10 wins $400)
Erik Jones +4000 ($10 wins $400)
Todd Gilliland +4000 ($10 wins $400)
Austin Dillion +5000 ($10 wins $500)
Noah Gragson +5000 ($10 wins $500)
Corey Lajoie +5000 ($10 wins $500)
Justin Haley +5000 ($10 wins $500)
Josh Berry +5000 ($10 wins $500)
AJ Allmendinger +5000 ($10 wins $500)
Riley Herbst +6000 ($10 wins $600)
Cole Custer +6000 ($10 wins $600)
Carson Hocevar +6000 ($10 wins $600)
John Hunter Nemechek +6000 ($10 wins $600)
Zane Smith +6000 ($10 wins $600)
Ty Dillion +8000 ($10 wins $800)
Shane Van Gisbergen +8000 ($10 wins $800)
Cody Ware +20000 ($10 wins $2000)
Jj Yeley +25000 ($10 wins $2500)
BJ McLeod +25000 ($10 wins $2500)
NASCAR Picks: Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Daniel Suarez to Beat Kyle Larson (-115)
It’s shocking to me this matchup is even offered, and not for the reason you may be thinking. At almost any track, it would be laughable to match Daniel Suarez up with Kyle Larson, but not at Atlanta. It’s well-documented at this point how bad Larson is at drafting tracks.</p>
His son is making fun of him, and his boss the legendary Jeff Gordon is making comments about how he’s in his head about
it. In 48 career Cup Starts at superspeedways, Larson only has two top-five finishes. Both at Talladega, the least comparable drafting track to this one. In his six starts at Atlanta on this track surface, Larson has one finish better than 30th.
Daniel Suarez has been the complete opposite on this track. The Trackhouse Racing driver has finished first or second in three straight races at Atlanta including winning the thrilling three-wide at the line race last spring. Suarez is six for six in beating Larson at Atlanta, and he does it by an average of 26 spots each time.
Daniel Suarez Top 10 Finish (+100)
While we’re on the Daniel Suarez train, let’s take his top 10 as well. At even money, this is a steal even at a drafting track. Suarez is five for six at finishing in the top 10 on this new surface. Suarez won last spring and finished second in the fall race. He finished second in the fall of 2023 as well, making it three in a row where he’s been in the top three at this track. He’s clearly got this surface figured out and has done a great job staying out of trouble in all but one race. If he can avoid the wrecks, I expect to see Suarez in the top 10 at the end of the day. While we’re at it, bet him 22/1 to win the race as well.
NASCAR Picks: Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
Corey Lajoie Top 10 (+250) and Top Finishing Ford (+1800)
No driver has made me more money on drafting tracks than Corey Lajoie. I had given him out on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast (and bet him) and 250/1 for that July 2022 race here. Lajoie was leading with two laps to go before getting into the wall and wrecking to finish 23rd. That was still the greatest sweat I’ve ever had on a NASCAR bet.
Lajoie pours everything he has into drafting tracks, especially this season. He joked last week about using his kids’ college funds to fund his Daytona 500 ride (don’t worry he didn’t do that). Then he was leading with just eight laps to go. He was unfortunately caught up in that last lap melee. But, once again he proved he could hang with the big dogs. So we’re back to betting on him again this week.
Atlanta has been his best of the drafting tracks too. Outside of leading with two to go Lajoie has two top-five finishes and two more top-15 finishes. This may be the last time we see him on track for a while, as he’s just running a part-time deal this season and his next race has yet to be announced. Look for that 01 to be upfront with a chance at the end of the day. I’ll also be betting him to win at 50/1.
Chase Elliott to Win (+1700)
Elliott is too good to pass up on at this price at his home track. The native of Dawsonville, Georgia has enjoyed the transformation of this track into a drafting track. Elliott has five starts on the new track (missed one with a broken leg in 2023).</p>
He’s finished in the top 15 in all five starts, including a win in the fall of 2022 when he led 96 laps on the
day. Elliott is well-rounded on superspeedways, finishing in the top 10 in five of his last 10 at Daytona. At Talladega, he’s finished in the top 10 in three of the last six. Elliott keeps himself in the mix, with a chance to win.
More Racing Content
<strong>Be sure to tune into the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST for more bets for the NASCAR Cup, Xfinity, and Truck Series, along with F1 and IndyCar bets, Underdog picks, DFS, and more! Join the Discord here.
