The Daytona 500 is just days away! After a long off-season, the teams are finally back in Daytona Beach, Florida to take on the high-banked 2.5-mile tri-oval of Daytona International Speedway for the Great American Race. It’s time to get those NASCAR Fantasy entries in over on Underdog Fantasy. Let’s dive in and take a look at some NASCAR fantasy picks for the Daytona 500.
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NASCAR Fantasy: Daytona 500 Underdog Fantasy Picks
Kyle Larson Worse Than 7.5 Finishing Position
Kyle Larson is considered by many, including myself as the greatest race car driver on the planet right now. However, Larson has one weakness, and superspeedways are that weakness. Larson has 47 career Cup Series starts on superspeedways, but only twice has he finished inside of the top five in his career. Both top fives came at Talladega.
His 11th-place finish in last year’s 500 is his only finish better than 18th in his last seven Daytona starts. In 21 career Cup Series races at Daytona, only three times has Larson finished better than this 7.5 projected finish number. The most recent of those was in 2019 with Chip Ganassi Racing and the older generation car the series no longer uses.
Justin Allgaier Worse Than 14.5 Finishing Position
At superspeedway races, more of my picks are going to lean to the worse than side of things then the better than. Because the entire field has a chance to finish better than most of these numbers, where on a regular week to week basis only 20-25 cars can finish better than 14.5, at Daytona all 40 or 41 cars can.
Justin Allgaier, an Xfinity Series regular, has made some starts in the Cup Series at Daytona before. In his four career starts, he’s never finished better than 18th place, three of them are worse than 25th. He’s also made six starts at Talladega, where he’s never finished better than 23rd. That makes 0 for 10 in his career finishing better than this projection, I like those numbers.
You could make an argument he’s never had this good of a car. He’s driving the Junior Motorsports entry for Dale Earnhardt Jr, which is essentially a Hendrick Motorsports car. While that is true, the car you are in matters less than anywhere else, and that’s why anyone can finish in the top 14 at this track no matter what they are driving.
AJ Allmendinger Better Than 16.5 Finishing Position
Alright, here’s one I can get behind going better than on. AJ Allmendinger is a stud on road courses, but did you know he’s also great on superspeedways? Daytona in particular, and the Daytona 500 even more particularly. He’s finished sixth place in the last two Daytona 500s. His previous two starts in the Great American Race came in 2017 and 2018 where he finished third and 10th respectively.
He’s not been too shabby in the summer/fall race either. In his last seven trips to Daytona International, AJ has finished inside of the top 10 in six of them. In nine of his 19 Cup Series starts at Daytona he’s finished better than 17th. For a track as unpredictable as Daytona, AJ’s been a solid driver, especially lately.
Josh Berry Worse Than 13.5 Finishing Position
I’m not sure where Underdog came up with this projection but we’ll take it. Josh Berry has three starts at Daytona in his short Cup Series career. He’s 0-3 at finishing any better than 22nd, 8.5 spots lower than this projection. It’s a small sample size, so what’s he done at Talladega and Atlanta you ask? Well, he’s not finished better than 18th in three Atlanta starts, and 16th is his best run in two Talladega races. That makes him 0-8 on superspeedways at this projection, again I’ve gotta side with the stats.
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