Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for January 28. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for January 28.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS
NBA First Scorer Props – January 28
Utah Jazz vs. Golden State Warriors
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Chase Center – San Francisco, CA
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Jazz aren’t winning much recently, but the tip is one of those things. They’re winning 56.8% of the tips on the year and should have a great chance to add to that here. The Warriors are one of the very worst in that category with just a 28.9% average. With the tip winner getting 64.9% of all the first buckets – that should already be enough to play someone on the Jazz. However, if you need another reason, they’re at league average for scoring first with the Warriors a solid 5.6% below them.
If we’re looking to play someone on the Jazz, there are only two options that currently stick out – Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton. With both John Collins and Walker Kessler out for tonight’s game, there aren’t really any other players getting early shots. If you look at the last two game, each of the first three shots were taken by one of these two.
Now, if we have to make a choice between the two, I’m going to play with Sexton. The first reason is that Markkanen is coming off of scoring first in the last game and it’s not easy to repeat. The second is that Sexton’s odds are about twice as high with the same calculated probability on my side.
First Scorer Bet for January 28: Collin Sexton (+700)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Moda Center – Portland, OR
Broadcast – TNT
The Bucks are another away team likely to grab the first possession on Tuesday. Brook Lopez and his squad are getting the first possession 64.4% of the time – which puts them in the top five of the league. That gives them an early advantage over the Blazers, who are just a league average team in that metric. But while they’re a league average team on the tip, they are falling short in actually converting those tips into early buckets. They rank 29th in that stat with just 32.6% – only ahead of the Bulls and barely at that.
It might be a little chalky, but I’m going to go with Giannis Antetokounmpo here. If you take the last three games and take the Bucks first three shots from each of those, Antetokounmpo makes up 44.4% of the shots overall. Not only that, he’s taken the first shot in two of the last three games. With the Blazers defense not really holding it’s own early, I expect him to take one down the lane here and flush it early for the first score.
First Scorer Bet for January 28: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+400)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for January 28, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
