Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for January 27. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for January 27.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – January 27
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, ON
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Pelicans have entered into must fade territory here for first buckets. They rank 29th in the league in winning the tip, which they do just 28.3% of the time. On top of nearly never having the first possession, they also rank 27th in the league at scoring first. While that’s a bit better than their tip rate, it’s hardly worth writing home about. Meanwhile, the Raptors are a below average team on the tip, but still manage to have a 13.9% better rate than New Orleans. They have also made the best of that – ranking in the top five in the league in first score success rate.
If we’re leaning on a Raptors player, there are three that are defining the early game for them right now – Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick. Poeltl is listed as questionable for Monday’s contest, so I’ll stay away from the banged up big. To separate the final two, let’s look at the last time that the Raptors and Pelicans faced off this year. The first three shots the Raptors took in that game were three-pointers – the first of which was made by the shooter filling in for an injured Gradey Dick. Being that Dick likes to sling it early, I’ll take him to get one in early.
First Scorer Bet for January 27: Gradey Dick (+650)
Washington Wizards vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, TX
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Mavericks are another of the teams that are wildly overachieving when it comes to the first scorer rate. They have just a 56.5% win rate on their tips, but are still coming in at #2 in the rankings for first buckets. That combination of defense and making good on their early shots is a sign you love in these spots. Meanwhile, the Wizards are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to scoring first. They are doing so at a worse rate than their tip win percentage as well. All of those indications tell me to head to Dallas for a pick here.
PJ Washington and Kyrie Irving are the two names we’re going to look to in this one. With Luka Doncic on the shelf, these two have been the vast majority of the early action. If you take the first three Mavericks shots in the last three games, 66.7% of them come from one of these two. Washington has been getting them a touch earlier in the shot log than Iriving, which makes me favor him here. It also helps that he took the first shot in their first game against the Wizards – and that was even with Doncic in the lineup.
First Scorer Bet for January 27: PJ Washington (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for January 27, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
