The UFC is kicking off the new year in a big way, with a stacked UFC 311 pay-per-view this Saturday night from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The odds might be wide for the two title fights atop the card, but that doesn’t really speak to how competitive the matchups should be. Here are your UFC 311 predictions & best bets to make Saturday night profitable.
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UFC 311 Predictions & Best Bets
Islam Makhachev (-310) vs Arman Tsarukyan
The main event is a rematch, this time with the UFC Lightweight Championship on the line. Current champ Islam Makhachev and challenger Arman Tsarukyan were still relatively early in their MMA careers when they first met almost six years ago, a tight fight that Makhachev won via decision. Now they meet again with gold on the line.
I’m picking the champ to retain, but I don’t like the odds attached to his name. Tsarukyan poses a tough challenge for him – and is five years younger. But with Makhachev’s improved striking and always dangerous grappling, I think he escapes with his belt.
Umar Nurmagomedov (-270) vs Merab dvalishvili
However, I do expect a new champ to be crowned in the co-main event. You normally do not see the challenger enter a title fight as such a large favorite, but this challenger’s last name is Nurmagomedov. And ‘Cousin Umar’ is a stiff test for new champ Merab Dvalishvili in his first bantamweight title defense.
Dvalishvili has the greatest gas tank the sport has ever seen – that’s his biggest strength. But can he outwork and outgrapple a Nurmagomedov? He definitely can’t outstrike Umar, as the Dagestani fighter is much better on the feet. Plus, Nurmagomedov has never been taken down in a fight.
Jamahal Hill (-135) vs Jiri Prochazka
Am I really taking Jamahal Hill as a favorite in a fight?! It appears like I am. In this battle between two former light heavyweight champions, I think Hill is going to get the job done against Jiri Prochazka.
That’s not me saying that I think Hill is a good fighter – he’s seriously flawed. But this is light heavyweight, so that doesn’t matter. Prochazka gets hit too much, and Hill has some power – that’s all you need to win at 205 pounds.
Reinier de Ridder (-112) vs Kevin Holland
In the main card opener, I like newly-signed Reinier de Ridder to grapple his way to a victory over Kevin Holland in a middleweight bout. RDR won his UFC debut, and previous to that was a two-division champ in ONE Championship.
de Ridder is a very strong grappler, which is a weakness of Holland’s. Holland tends to get taken down and not try too hard to get himself back up, which spells trouble for him here.
Ailin Perez (+215) vs Karol Rosa
I’m not a big fan of Ailin Perez, but I’ve got to give it to her – she’s improved each time she has stepped into the UFC octagon. And now she’s poised to win the biggest fight of her career on Saturday.
The name of the game for Perez is her wrestling and grappling. She is relentless in looking for takedowns, and the last two times Karol Rosa has been taken down, she’s gone on to lose the fight.
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