Divisional Round Picks and Best Bets

Divisional Round Picks and Best Bets

Super Wild Card Weekend was not only super but also wild, and now we’re down to eight teams. The higher seed won 5/6 games, and now the one-seeds will come off their bye. Welcome to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Here are my 2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks and Best Bets!

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Divisional Round Picks and Best Bets

Texans At Chiefs

Time: Saturday, 4:30 PM EST 
TV Provider: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Spread: Chiefs -8
Total: 41.5

I nailed the Texans pick last week. With four sacks and nine QB hits, Houston’s pass rush was simply too much for Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Many were underrating just how good this Texans’ defense is. This isn’t the offensive juggernaut from last season, although CJ Stroud, Joe Mixon, and Nico Collins balled out on Saturday.

The Chiefs are just inevitable. KC finished 15-2, scoring 30 points just two times and winning 11 one-score games. Their regular-season offense was middle of the pack for the second straight season. They failed to have a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver. Kansas City is a defense-first team led by Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie.

But who can discount Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, especially in the playoffs? And you know Andy Ried has a few tricks up his sleeve. The oddsmakers are giving Kansas City the ultimate respect here, making them eight-point favorites against a formidable Texans squad.

I won’t be taking a side here; instead, I’ll be looking at the total. Yes, it’s super low, but I’ll be taking the under. In my opinion, this is a matchup of two of the NFL’s top-five defenses.

Houston is one of the best in the league in preventing yards, whereas KC thrives on their red-zone defense.

The Pick: Under 41.5 Total Points

Commanders at Lions

Time: Saturday, 8:00 PM EST 
TV Provider: FOX
Spread: Lions -10
Total: 55.5

The oddsmakers are expecting a lot of points in this one. Just look at the preposterous odds of TD scorers. The one-seeded Detroit Lions will host the upcoming Washington Commanders led by their stud rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. The combination of Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury has been lethal for opposing teams.

Yes, Washington has a young quarterback, but this roster includes veterans with extensive playoff experience. Washington went from 24th in the league in yards per game in 2023 to sixth in 2024.

Dan Campbell and his Detroit Lions need no introduction. Detroit’s offense is as explosive as they come in football. Top five in yards per game, top five in yards per play, top five in points per game, top five in first downs per game, and top five in time of possession. Jahmyr Gibbs has been lighting it up in David Montgomery’s absence, but it looks like Monty will be back in some semblance on Saturday.

The Lions’ defense is definitely questionable due to injuries. Aaron Glenn, who is getting interviews this head coaching cycle, has kept the Lions’ defense formidable without many of their key players. They play a ton of man coverage and force the quarterback to make quick decisions with different blitz packages.

This may make it difficult for Jayden Daniels as an inexperienced QB, although a scrambling quarterback is the ultimate kryptonite to man coverage.

That said, I think Detroit takes care of business at home in what will be a raucous environment.

The Picks: Lions -10, Jayden Daniels over 54.5 rushing yards

Rams At Eagles

Time: Sunday, 3:00 PM EST 
TV Provider: NBC/Peacock
Spread: Eagles -5.5
Total: 43.5

These two teams faced off in Week 12 of the season in LA, and the Eagles dominated 37-20. Notably, Saquon Barkley ran wild, accounting for 302 yards and two touchdowns. Slowing him down will be the key to the Rams staying alive in this one.

Philadelphia did not put together their best offensive performance last week against Green Bay, but they still covered the spread quite easily. It was concerning that AJ Brown had just one catch, and Jalen Hurts definitely looked rusty coming off his concussion.

Against Minnesota, Los Angeles set an NFL playoff record, sacking Sam Darnold nine times. Their defense slowed down Justin Jefferson and prevented Aaron Jones from breaking any big runs. It was an absolute masterclass by Chris Shula. He’ll have to do it again if this Rams squad has any chance of taking down the Eagles on the road.

I think this game comes down to explosive plays and time of possession. Philly finished third in the league in explosive plays. Accounting for Brown, Barkley, Smith, and Goedert is no easy task. The Eagles also lead the league in time of possession. This doesn’t bode well for a Rams defense that has been “bend, don’t break” all season.

I think the Eagles will win this game and cover the number. I’m staying away from the total because I can see this game being either a shootout or a time-of-possession game.

The Pick: Eagles -5.5

Ravens at Bills

Time: Sunday, 6:30 PM EST 
TV Provider: CBS/Paramount+
Spread: Ravens -1
Total: 51.5

Finally, in what will be the most anticipated game of the year—the battle of the two MVP candidates—the Ravens and Bills will square off in a rematch of their Week 4 matchup. Baltimore took that one with ease, winning 35-10. Last week, the Ravens squashed a dead Steelers team, and the Bills throttled a young Broncos team that just wasn’t ready for the big stage.

The oddsmakers favor the Ravens in Buffalo, which is a bit surprising. Both teams have prolific offenses with dynamic quarterbacks. However, defensively, we see the most significant discrepancy between these squads.

Although they struggled earlier in the season, this Ravens defense is humming and has been elite in the back half of the season. Since Kyle Hamilton’s return from injury, this defense has been near the top of the league in most defensive categories.

On the other hand, Buffalo has struggled defensively, especially toward the end of the season. However, they play much better defense at home than on the road, which bodes well for them in this spot.

I’ll be riding with the Ravens. Even as the road team,  their defense will travel and force Josh Allen to put on his Superman cape. He is capable, but Lamar Jackson has more help around him.

The Picks: Ravens -1, Lamar Jackson ATTD, Josh Allen ATTD, James Cook Over 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

 

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