Although the NFL regular season started slowly, it did not disappoint. The NFL Playoffs are finally here, and Super Wild Card Weekend is one of the best sports weekends of the year. Let’s get into one bet for each of the first-round matchups! Here are my picks and best bets for Super Wild Card Weekend!
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Super Wild Card Weekend Picks and Best Bets
Chargers at Texans
Time: Saturday, 4:30 PM EST
TV Provider: CBS/Paramount+
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: 42.5
What a year it’s been for the LA Chargers. What a difference Jim Harbaugh makes, especially coming from Brandon Staley last year. This team has relied on running the ball and playing solid defense to win 11 games. Although Justin Herbert’s numbers may seem pedestrian for his career standard, he has protected the ball quite nicely, turning the ball over just four times all season.
On the contrary, Houston has significantly regressed from its offensive prowess last season. CJ Stroud may be experiencing a sophomore slump, but this Houston defense is no joke. The Texans allowed the sixth-least yards per game and the fourth-least yards per play. The combo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. rushing the passer is as lethal as it gets in the NFL.
I have heard a lot of hype about the Chargers, and although I do understand it, they have beaten just one playoff team this season. They definitely took advantage of a weak schedule, but you can only play the teams on that schedule. I think this will be a very close game, which the Chargers could win. I’ll just be riding with the better defense, the home team, and the three points.
The Pick: Texans +3
Steelers at Ravens
Time: Saturday, 8:00 PM EST
TV Provider: Prime
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Total: 43.5
I did not believe in the Pittsburgh Steelers going into the season. They started 10-3 but have since crashed and burned to 10-7. Their defense does not scare me the way it did at the beginning of the season, and their offense has dried up with Russell Wilson at the helm.
Baltimore is trending upward. At the beginning of the season, my biggest worry was their defense, which seemed to shore up in the last few weeks. The Ravens present any defense with a number of challenges, especially between Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
It is crucial to note Zay Flowers is questionable heading into this one, following a knee injury he suffered in Week 18.
Say what you want about a division matchup between two rivals and Mike Tomlin as an underdog; I don’t care. In Super Wild Card Weekend, this Steelers team is dead. They lost the last four games of the regular season and will undoubtedly lose this one, too. It’s just a matter of how much. I think it’s in the 14-17 point range. Ravens roll here.
The Pick: Ravens -9.5
Broncos at Bills
Time: Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
TV Provider: CBS/Paramount+
Spread: Bills -8
Total: 47.5
What a surprisingly successful season it has been for Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos. Many doubted how this team would achieve success this season with one of the youngest rosters in football, a rookie quarterback, and the largest dead cap hit of all time. Bo Nix has shown the ability to be accurate and run Sean Payton’s offense much better than Russell Wilson could.
Many talk about the Broncos’ defense being one of the best in the NFL, but I would point to them allowing 30+ points to the Bengals, Browns, and Chargers down the stretch as a cause for concern.
Is this finally the year for the Bills? Josh Allen put together an MVP-caliber campaign with the departure of Stefon Diggs. He spreads the ball to all his targets, and James Cook showed dominance in the run game. It is not a surprise Bill’s OC, Joe Brady, is getting interview after interview this coaching cycle.
Defensively, this team definitely has question marks. 44 points to the Rams and 42 points to the Lions in back-to-back weeks at the end of the season would frighten me a little if I were a Bills fan. Nevertheless, when Von Miller and the pass rush can get to the opposing QB, the Bills defense has had some dominant performances.
That said, I think Buffalo takes this one, but Denver keeps it close. Getting the ball out quickly is a good way to combat a good pass rush, and that is precisely what Sean Payton loves to do.
The Pick: Broncos +8.5
Packers at Eagles
Time: Sunday, 4:30 PM EST
TV Provider: FOX
Spread: Eagles -4.5
Total: 45.5
Flashback to last season, the Packers (as a seven seed) took on an NFC East opponent as an underdog and absolutely smashed them. Here we are this year in an eerily similar situation.
For Philly, Jalen Hurts finally returned to practice but remains in concussion protocol. AJ Brown didn’t practice Thursday and is dealing with a knee injury. These are definitely things to keep an eye on as we head into the weekend. Green Bay is also dealing with injuries (who isn’t), as Jaire Alexander was up on IR earlier in the week, and Josh Jacobs is dealing with a wrist injury.
Believe it or not, the Eagles are the worst team in the NFL in the first quarter, which plays right into the hands of the Packers. Green Bay will win this one by getting off to a great start and then relying on its run game. This is precisely what they did last season against Dallas, going up 27-0 and not looking back.
The Eagles are a super dynamic team when healthy, but that remains to be seen.
The Pick: Packers +4.5
Commanders at Buccaneers
Time: Sunday, 8:00 PM EST
TV Provider: NBC/Peacock
Spread: Buccaneers -3
Total: 50.5
This Super Wild Card pick is a tough one. On one side, we have a team in Tampa Bay that won a playoff game last year and has been a dominant offense all season. On the other side, we have a team in Washington that has been historically bad, but their rookie quarterback has brought them back to relevance.
Washington was 3-2-1 against the spread as an underdog this season, but backing a rookie QB on the road in his first playoff game would scare me. At the same time, this Buccaneers defense has proven to be quite spotty this season. They lack a dominant pass rusher off the edge and have a young secondary.
I don’t feel confident about either side, so I’ll focus on the total. 50.5 is the highest total we have for Super Wild Card Weekend. The over hit 11 times this season for the Commanders and 12 times this season for the Bucs. Although both teams have defensive head coaches, their offenses have carried the load.
The Pick: Over 50.5 Total Points
Vikings at Rams
Time: Monday, 8:00 PM EST
TV Provider: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Spread: Vikings -2.5 (IN ARIZONA)
Total: 47.5
We have the smallest spread on the board in this Super Wild Car Weekend game. Kevin O’Connell faces his former team, where he served as offensive coordinator in LA under Sean McVay from 2020-2021, helping the Rams win a Super Bowl in 2021.
Minnesota impressed me significantly this season. Sam Darnold revitalized his career in this KOC offense, and Brian Flores led a super-opportunistic defensive group that led the league in takeaways. However, something about that performance against Detriot in Week 18 left a sour taste in my mouth about this team.
Sam Darnold appeared to fold under the playoff-like atmosphere in Detriot. Due to the California fires, this game will not be played in Los Angeles but at State Farm Stadium in Arizona.
This is a tough one, but ultimately, I trust Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Sean McVay to get the job done in this position.
The Pick: Rams +2.5
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