Welcome to the Capital One Orange Bowl from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, where the sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions will face the seventh-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Irish come into this one as 2.5-point favorites. Both teams picked up dominant victories in their previous matchups. Here is my Penn State vs. Notre Dame Preview and Predictions!
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College Football Playoff: Penn State vs. Notre Dame Preview and Predictions
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish are here because they are one of the nation’s most fundamentally sound football teams. Marcus Freeman is an elite head coach and leader of men. He’s rallied the troops after their disastrous loss to Northern Illinois early in the season. Many wrote them off after that, but the Irish definitely deserve credit for getting here.
On offense, Notre Dame keeps it simple and has a true identity. They rank 11th in the country in rush yards per game and 2nd in rushing yards per attempt. In fact, the ground game makes up 53.3% of Notre Dame’s offensive attack –good for the 16th-highest rate in the country.
It’s simple for ND. When Riley Leonard takes care of the ball, they win, and they win resoundingly. If Leonard’s first option isn’t open, he’ll often take off for a significant gain on the ground.
Concerningly, Jeremiyah Love, the Fighting Irish’s best offensive player, is dealing with a knee injury. He’ll be wearing a knee brace during the game, which is not a good sign, in my estimation.
Some good and some bad for Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love at practice today.
He didn’t sit out any reps, but he took them all with the 2nd team and wore a fairly significant brace on his knee. He fiddled with that quite a bit.
4 days til the Orange Bowl.https://t.co/d0vGCN0LFs pic.twitter.com/EMTKq1GLyf
— Tyler Horka (@tbhorka) January 5, 2025
ND must rely on Jadarian Price and Riley Leonard to carry their dominant run game.
On the other side of the ball, Jack Kiser and Junior Tuihalamaka have excelled, especially in the College Football Playoff. Against Georgia, the Irish defensive line was dominant, sacking Gunnar Stockton four times. They also controlled the UGA rushing attack, holding them to just 2.3 yards per carry.
Penn State Nittany Lions
A lot has been said about James Franklin’s tenure at Penn State. The guy many analysts say can not win a big game finds himself in the final four of the College Football Playoff. There’s no doubt this Penn State squad is flawed, but at their best, are they National Championship good?
Only time will tell. One thing that can’t be disputed is Penn State’s easy road to this round. Beating SMU and Boise State does not exactly scream “impressive” to me, but I digress.
Offensively, the Nittany Lions really frustrate me. In their biggest games of the season, they refused to target their best players (Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen, Tyler Warren) in the red zone.
Andy Kotelnicki was praised for improving this offense from last season, although I did not like his play calling against Boise State. Even though they won convincingly, Kotelnicki continuously put the ball in Drew Allar’s hands, asking him to scan the field and find an open receiver.
The problem with that is that Penn State doesn’t have a wide receiver, which scares you. Despite 41 rushes for 216 yards, with the game in the balance, Kotelnicki got way too cute.
At their best, Penn State can dominate on the ground just like Notre Dame, and Allar gives you much more in the passing game than Leonard can.
Abdul Carter is critical to Penn State’s defensive strategy. However, he has a shoulder or arm injury, and we don’t know how this will affect him in the biggest game of the season.
The Pick: Penn State +2.5
With both teams dealing with injuries to critical players, I can truly see this one going either way. Quite simply, I think Penn State has a higher ceiling and a lower floor. For Penn State to take this one, it will be key for them to get off to a lead to start the game. When he’s forced to throw the ball, Riley Leonard is not the same QB.
I’m rolling, once again, with the Nittany Lions.
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every playoff and bowl game, make sure you tune into The College Football Experience. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college football picks this Bowl Season!
