The NFL regular season is coming to an end this weekend. There are a handful of teams that are still playing for their playoff lives and seeding, but for the most part, things are settled. That means now is when coaches and teammates start looking at their players’ contract incentives. This gives us a unique opportunity to look at what teams and coaches may be focusing on and bet on those props. So let’s dive in and take a look at some player props to bet based on contract incentives for Week 18.
The way it works in the NFL is teams build incentives into a player’s contract. X amount of rush yards = X amount of money. Or X amount of catches = X amount of money. Sometimes it’s layered, 40 catches is money, 50 catches is more money, and so on.
Coaches and quarterbacks have and will continue to go out of their way to draw up plays or target players to help them reach these goals. These are their Gridiron brothers, and like any job, we’re all here to get paid. They won’t make an entire gameplan around someone, but when the game is over at the end, whether that’s a win or loss it’s the perfect time to grab those extra stats.
Player Props to Bet Based on Contract Incentives Week 18
Tony Pollard 2+ Touchdowns (+360)
Tony Pollard is just two touchdowns away from a 200k bonus that hits when he gets to seven touchdowns on the season. He is also just 83 yards away from 1,100 on the season. If he gets to 1,100 he gets a 250k bonus. Keep an eye out for his rushing total when it drops as well.
The thought here is, the Titans aren’t playing for anything this weekend. They are going to feed Pollard the ball to help him get to 83 yards. That gives him chances to break off a big touchdown run, and anytime they are near the goal they are going to get the ball to him to help him get paid. At almost 4/1 odds, this offers great value for a guy who should be hyper-focused on.
Courtland Sutton Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The Denver Broncos need a win at home this weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs to ensure their trip to the postseason. That works out well for bettors because they’ll be playing all their starters and actively attacking in this game. The Chiefs, on the other hand, will be sitting a lot of their starters giving them a two-week bye before the second round of the playoffs.
Courtland Sutton is just 82 yards away from 1,000 on the season and a 500k bonus that awaits him. The Broncos’ number one priority is going to be to win, which is good for Sutton. After that, if he’s not already there, it’s going to be to get him to that number. Sutton has already hit this number in five of his last nine games.
Player Props to Bet Based on Contract Incentives Week 18
Geno Smith Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-110)
This one is a little different but pretty fun. Geno Smith has an incentive built into his contract worth an astonishing 2 million dollars. If he finishes the season with a 69.75% completion percentage, he cashes in that cool 2-million-dollar bonus. Currently, he’s still above that total at 70.2%, but there’s a catch.
He has another bonus, also worth 2 million dollars. This one is for when he breaks his 2022 mark of 4,282 passing yards. He’s only 186 yards away from that. At the risk of sounding like a TV commercial salesman, but wait there’s more! Smith also has a 2-million-dollar bonus if the Seahawks win 10 games. You guessed it, they sit at nine wins right now.
So, pass for 186 yards, be efficient at it to keep the completion percentage up (low-risk short passes), and win the game. Doing all three makes Geno 6-million dollars richer. That’s no drop in the bucket and should motivate him to complete plenty of passes in Sunday’s action.
Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)
This one isn’t contract-based, it’s record-based but the same rules apply. Brian Dabol fighting and clawing to save his job, and his shiny rookie toy has had one heck of a year. Nabers sits six targets behind Terry Glen’s rookie target record. He also has one more target on the season than Ja’Mar Chase for the lead in the NFL, no rookie has led that category since it became a stat in 1992.
Brock Bowers, the Raiders’ rookie tight end just broke the single-season rookie receptions record, but he’s only four catches ahead of Nabers. Getting the ball to Nabers has been, and will continue to be, the gameplan for the Giants. When they target him, he catches the ball. Nabers has gone over this mark in three straight games, and nine times in 2024. He’s also likely to be playing against backups for the Eagles, which should make this even more achievable.
