Welcome to the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, where the sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions will face the third-seeded Boise State Broncos. Despite the seeding, Penn State is an 11-point favorite, coming off their dominating performance against SMU. Here is my Penn State vs. Boise State Preview and Predictions!
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College Football Playoff: Penn State vs. Boise State Preview and Predictions
Will Boise State become the second G5 team to reach the final four of the College Football Playoff, or will this tournament continue to produce chalk with a Penn State win? Let’s first break down each team below!
Boise State Broncos
Don’t get it twisted. This Boise State team is here on the back of one man and one man only: Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman runner-up had the fourth most rushing yards in a single season in College Football history, trailing only Barry Sanders, Melvin Gordon, and Kevin Smith.
Most slotted former number-one recruit in the nation, Malachi Nelson, as the Broncos QB in 2024, but Maddux Madsen won the job and has done quite nicely. Madsen doesn’t take too many risks, and most importantly, he takes care of the ball, as he’s only thrown three interceptions this season.
Boise State ranks 84th in strength of schedule, by far the worst of the remaining teams in the College Football Playoffs. This makes sense for a G5 team. The 12-1 Broncos dominated most of their Mountain West Opponents in 2024.
However, I would point to their close loss to Oregon on September 7th as the best game on their resume. That said, we should put that game in the proper perspective. Yes, Boise State gave the number-one team in the nation one of their toughest tasks of the year, but they were not the same Oregon team we see today. The Ducks have since found their stride by shoring up the offensive line, which was a major problem back in September.
Penn State Nittany Lions
On the other hand, Penn State had a typical James Franklin-Penn State season. They dominated the opponents they were superior to and fell to Ohio State and Oregon, the teams that out-talent them. The Nittany Lions’ defense will get most of the attention here, although I think they are overrated.
Penn State ranks fourth in opponent yards per game and fifth in opponent yards per play. I’d point to the weaker Big Ten offenses Penn State faced this season. Oregon exposed this defense pretty badly, scoring at will.
On the other hand, Abdul Carter is a game-breaking player that Boise will have to account for on every play. He’s a sure-fire first-round pick who might be the nation’s best pass-rusher.
Offensively, Penn State isn’t extraordinary, but it gets the job done. Drew Allar is a solid college quarterback who occasionally makes great plays. This offense leans on its rushing attack. The duo of Nick Singelton and Kaytron Allen is one of the best in the country. Overall, I’m not high on this Penn State squad, but the bracket definitely broke their way.
The Pick: Penn State -11
Yes, this Penn State defense is overrated. Yes, I do not believe in Penn State, as far as the National Championship conversation goes.
That said, I think Penn State dominates this Boise State squad. They will need to stack the box to stop Jeanty, and once they do, not much more scares you on this Boise offense.
Many will point to James Franklin being unable to win the “big game”. I don’t think this even qualifies as a “big game”. I understand this is a College Football Playoff game and an elimination game at a neutral site, but Penn State easily has the talent advantage and should take care of business quite easily.
