Bagel Bites: NFL Week 16 Preview and Picks

Leave it to me to have one of my worst weeks of the season the same week I get published on a reputable website. Coming out of the gate hot! A robust 6-10 debut on the SGP website. I wish I could blame it on some bad luck, a few missed kicks, back doors, etc., but I can’t even back door my way to 6-10. I samsonite’d the shit out of that slate. We had a few solid picks in Dallas, Green Bay, etc, but not enough to tout 6-10! So we move on. We have injuries, benchings, playoff implications, weather, motivation, and all sorts of juicy narratives for this week. Let’s get to the NFL Week 16 picks.

Bagel Bites: NFL Week 16 Preview and Picks

Denver at Chargers (-3.5)

It is absolutely bananas to me that Denver is 9-5. You can’t convince me they are a good football team. A quick glance at their wins, and I believe Tampa in Week 3 is their only win over a team with a winning record. This is the same team that Miami scored 70 on last year. #neverforget. The Chargers, on the other hand, looked pretty bad in their loss to Tampa. That’s two straight for Harbaugh and company. Now they get a “hot” Denver team home on a Thursday night with their QB possibly banged up. So I ask you, Dear Reader, why is this line 3.5? Does that seem suspicious to you? Denver seems to be riding all the momentum, and the Chargers seem to be falling apart, yet they are 3.5-point favorites. Well, I’m not buying it. I’m making this a get-right spot for the Chargers and a reality check game for the Broncos. Short week, home team, give it to me.

Houston at KC (+2.5)

A little Saturday afternoon action between the Texans and the world’s most trending ankle. I just found out Carson Wentz was still in the league last week, and now here he is front and center. I love that for the ratings in this stand-alone game. Poor NFL can’t catch a break! So what to do here? You got two teams that don’t really need the game. You don’t know if Mahomes is going.

Do you trust Houston on the road? All of a sudden, this game kinda sucks! Does KC rally behind their fallen leader? What is the most realistic scenario? It’s a weird spot because I think if Mahomes plays, then Houston will get up for the game. If he doesn’t, I feel Kansas City will, and that sounds idiotic. “I like the Chiefs, but only if Mahomes doesn’t play,” said the dumbest gambler ever. I’m going to take the points in a game that absolutely does not matter and hope Mahomes sits.

Steelers at Ravens (-5.5)

It should be noted that these four teams playing on Saturday come back in 4 days and play again on Christmas. That’s three games in 10 days for those scoring at home in this “player safety” league. A few weeks back, I predicted that the Steelers would fall and the Ravens would rise in this division. Then the Steelers put up 44 on Cincinnati, and once again, I looked like a dope. Fast forward to a loss to the Eagles, this road battle with the Ravens and Chiefs on Christmas, and all of a sudden, the division is in play! What a Genius!

This line does seem high. These games are usually 3 points. TJ Watt also has a trending ankle to monitor. You also have the Pickens injury to consider. So a banged-up Steelers team with Russell Wilson goes on the road to face Stinky Lamar in a rivalry game. Lamar MVP talks about heating up again after he torched the Giant’s Pop Warner quality defense (congrats, Lamar). Steelers’ defense is an actual professional unit, and there’s plenty of sample size for his lack of success in these spots. I’m going to take the points here and hope for a traditional Pittsburgh/Baltimore field goal game.

Browns at Bengals (-7.5)

This is an easy one for me. Browns made the King Jameis move and took the decision out of my hands! It would’ve been nice to see Jameis chuck it up for grabs against this Swiss cheese defense. But no see Cleveland is a serious 3-11 organization and we can’t have that, Jameis is killing them. (Biggest eye roll ever.) Cincinnati has been putting up some numbys the last few weeks. I see no reason that doesn’t continue here, and Cleveland rolling out Thompson-Robinson at QB will not keep up. Why does this guy have two last names anyway? Can’t trust him. Laying the points.

Giants at Falcons (-9.5)

I can’t believe the Giants still play football. Can you imagine being on that team and going to work every day? At least they get to face a rookie quarterback. The disrespect of choosing the Giants to debut their rookie. It will not be on the road vs. the Raiders but at home against the Giants. I just looked, and the Giants have 19 players listed as questionable. 19! I guess it’s safe to say that they themselves couldn’t imagine going to work every day either. What a shit game this is, good Lord. I’m gonna take the Falcons and the upside of Penix.

Arizona at Carolina (+4.5)

Nailed both of these teams last week! On the ball. My first thought is, did these two quarterbacks face each other in college? Alabama vs Oklahoma. Had to, right? I’m not looking it up so let’s just assume there’s a heated rivalry here. Makes it more fun. Kyler Murray has hated Bryce Young since college! Revenge spot here (we think). My Cards are still alive with a big big matchup next week vs the Rams. Look ahead,d spot? Possibly, and honestly, I don’t like it. I can see a field goal game here. The public might be down on Carolina after last week’s predictable loss to Dallas. Good time to jump on them. Holding my nose and taking the points.

Lions at Bears (+6.5)

Lions are off a loss. The line is less than a touchdown. Every narrative has the sky is falling in Detroit. I hereby dare the Bears to keep this within 7. I dare you, Chicago. Come at me.

Titans at Colts (-4.5)

The NFL should seriously consider flexing these games to March. Put that shit on Peacock and watch the money flow in! You’re welcome, NFL. I can’t believe I backed the Colts as a division contender to start the year. Was that worse than picking the Jets? Probably not, but it wasn’t sharp, that’s for sure! Richardson stinks, but this is a favorable matchup.

Of course these are always 3 point games but i don’t see it here. Rudolph gets the start a week before Christmas but will need more than a red nose to find the end zone. See what I did there?? There was a minute last week where I thought the Colts were gonna beat the Broncos, but alas, it’s a 60-minute game. They dropped the ball at the one. Had a pick-six off a backward pass. Very embarrassing stuff. I think you get a good effort from the Colts vs an equally hapless Titans team. I’m laying it.

Rams at Jets (+3.5)

Jags disappointed me last week. No other way to say it. I don’t think the Jets are back. The Rams have a big matchup with the Cards next week. Look ahead?? West going east, out of conference, cold weather, early kick. All those narratives. If you fade the Rams here, that leaves you with the Jets. How gross is that?? Great game for March on Peacock! The coaching edge goes to the Rams. QB edge goes to the Rams. Instinct says take the Jets. Instinct went 6-10 last week. Give me the Rams. F the Jets.

Eagles at Commanders (+3.5)

Someone is trying to sell you, and this is a big divisional matchup. It’s not. The Eagles have a 3-game lead with 3 to play. That shit is over. I don’t think 3.5 points is enough. I don’t think a team with a shaky defense is gonna hang with annoying Philly for 4 quarters. In the same realm, I don’t think they have enough offense to win a shootout. I’m doing a lot of not thinking about this game! Gonna lay the points, and if somehow Washington contends in this game, I’d love to see it.

Vikings at Seattle (+2.5)

I think we’ve swung too far. Getting Seattle as a home dog where they’ve been awful most of the season. They’re due! Along with the Jets and Colts, I was most wrong about the Vikings heading into the season. But am I wrong to the point that they should be road favorites here? I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Geno Smith injury is a factor here! Sounds like he’s gonna give it a go. Daniel LaRusso is gonna fight! If I’m wrong, at least I have a built-in excuse, lol. Give me the home dog. Still not convinced Minnesota is good. Still probably wrong. TBD

Patriots at Bills (-14.5)

If I were a Bills fan, I would hate this game. I’d probably bench Josh Allen. Patriots twice and the Jets to close out the season. It’s not exactly playoff prep. And any injuries here kill you. Tough spot. Let down after that great Lions win? Back door potential for the Pats? Foot off the gas just a little bit? I can see it. However, it was a rivalry game, late December in Buffalo, 20 years of beatdowns from Brady. Maybe it’s a celebration game. The old 41-7 reminder game. Does Buffalo have that hate in their hearts? Or the thinking bigger picture? I’m taking the points and hope I’m on the right side of a back door for once.

Jacksonville at Vegas (+1.5)

Oh my God. I wouldn’t even put this on Peacock. I hope they tie. Where to begin this handicap? Games like this make me regret starting a blog! Mac Jones vs Ridder. Did they play in college? I am laughing out loud. I am going deep into the bag on this one to try and find an angle. I’m going to go to Jax here, as I think they are a little less terrible than the Raiders.

Niners at Dolphins (-1.5)

Two 6-8 teams in the Battle of the Titans! Are the Niners upstart? They’ve lost 4/5, so I’m thinking no. But if they win this game, it’s, yeah, bro, the Niners are good. Kyle Shanahan etc, etc. If they lose, yeah, bro, Niners suck. Super Bowl hangover etc, etc. So what to do? Should we just look at Miami? What version of Tua are we getting? Hell, if I know, probably a shitty one. Niners off long rest, but this is a long trip. Both teams are coming off bad losses. I think this is ultimately a field goal game, and I’m gonna take the points.

Tampa at Dallas (+4.5)

As we get closer to the playoffs and I need to find a team to beat the Eagles, I am becoming more and more of a Bucs fan by the week. In Baker, we trust! There’s no way I’m not taking Tampa here. Nailed Dallas last week and will nail Tampa here. Dallas is playing well enough to get an opponent’s attention. Tampa needs the game to stay in the top division and make playoffs. Sunday night. Jerry World. Waiting all day to bet Baker here. If he loses to Cooper Rush, I’m gonna need a new team.

Saints at Packers (-13.5)

Ugh, what a gross game. Maybe we get snow? Dome team in Lambeau in December. I’m sure no one will mention that in their handicap. Are the Saints scrappy? Can the Packers let down here after that road win in Seattle? They are pretty much locked into a six-seed. Are they going all out here? Vikings on deck. So, a letdown and look ahead spot. Sandwich spot? No motivation. Off a win. The scrappy Saints are getting 13.5. No Kamara? Oh, I kinda like it. Start chucking it, Spencer. LFG!

These are pretty gross matchups for Week 16, but I appreciate you getting to the end of the blog! I feel a solid 11-5 week coming. Like I always say, there are some winners here, but you gotta pick your own losers! Best of luck this week!

Nagels out.