The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is already just around the corner. The Clash at Bowman Grey Stadium takes place on Sunday, February 2nd, less than two months away. The Daytona 500 on Sunday, February 16th is also less than two months away. It’s never too early to check out the 2025 NASCAR season win totals and best bets on them.
2024 saw 18 different NASCAR Cup Series winners on the season. Tied for third-most all-time in the modern era (1972) and 2024 was the fourth straight year of at least 15 different winners. Kyle Larson led the field with six wins, champion Joey Logano had four. Five drivers had three wins, the other 11 each had a single win apiece.
The win totals below can be found on Mybookie.ag (new customers use promo code SGON) and Caesars Sportsbook currently. They are for the 36-point races and do not include the Clash at Bowman Grey, the Daytona Duels, or the All-Star race at North Wilkesboro.
2025 NASCAR Season Win Totals and Best Bets
-Bubba Wallace .5 Wins (Over -130), (Under +100)
-Denny Hamlin 3.5 Wins (Over +105), (Under -124)
-Ross Chastain 1.5 Wins (Over +120), (Under -150)
-Chase Elliott 1.5 Wins (Over -117), (Under +120)
-Ty Gibbs .5 Wins (Over -132), (Under +130)
-Austin Dillon .5 Wins (Over +130), (Under -160)
-Ryan Blaney 2.5 Wins (Over -180), (Under +150)
-Shane Van Gisbergen 1.5 Wins (Over -150), (Under +120)
-Daniel Suarez .5 Wins (Over +130), (Under -160)
-Michael McDowell .5 Wins (Over +130), (Under -160)
-Austin Cindric .5 Wins (Over +110), (Under -140)
-Christopher Bell 3.5 Wins (Over -135), (Under +105)
-William Byron 3.5 Wins (Over -110), (Under -120)
-Tyler Reddick 3.5 Wins (Over +135), (Under -165)
-Alex Bowman .5 Wins (Over -200), (Under +165)
-Carson Hocevar .5 Wins (Over +180), (Under -220)
-Chris Buescher 1.5 Wins (Over +140), (Under -170)
-Joey Logano 3.5 Wins (Over +104), (Under -144)
-Kyle Larson 5.5 Wins (Over -115), (Under -115)
-Kyle Busch 1.5 Wins (Over +120), (Under -150)
-Chase Briscoe 1.5 Wins (Over +120), (Under -150)
-Aj Allmendinger .5 Wins (Over +120), (Under -150)
-Brad Keselowski 1.5 Wins (Over +110), (Under -140)
2025 NASCAR Season Win Totals and Best Bets
Chase Elliott Over 1.5 Wins (-117)
This is my favorite of all the win totals on the board so far. Chase Elliott is coming off a one-win season in 2024, and no wins in 2023. Elliott suffered a broken leg in a skiing accident early in the 2023 season that has seemingly affected him over the last two seasons. We often see with athletes that it takes time to recover and in 2025 Elliott will be another year removed from the injury.
Going back to pre-injury, Elliott had some great seasons. The first year of the NetGen car Elliott drove his Hendrick Chevrolet to victory lane five times in 2022. Twice he made it to victory lane in 2021, and his championship year in 2020 was another five-win season. He had three wins in 2019, as well as 2018. In every year since Elliott won his first Cup Series race he’s won at least two races and in most cases more, until the last two years.
He was NASCAR’s most consistent driver in 2024, with only four finishes outside of the top 20 all year. He’s in some of the best equipment in the garage with Team Hendrick and simply finding victory lane in 2025 twice, shouldn’t be a tall task for the Dawsonville, Georgia native.
Denny Hamlin Under 3.5 Wins (-124)
Let me start by saying personally I believe Hamlin is the greatest driver in NASCAR history to have not won a championship (sorry Mark Martin), yet. That being said, this number is just too high for Denny. At 44 years old Hamlin is starting to reach that age where he could fall off the age cliff at any point and Father Time is unbeaten, ask Tom Brady.
Hamlin has also been part of a stellar driver/crew chief combination with Chris Gabehart, one of the best crew chiefs in the garage. Gabehart has been promoted within the Joe Gibbs Racing organization and will no longer be atop Denny’s pit box. Hamlin was “shocked” by this news when he was told of the change. Hamlin had previously stated he planned on having Gabehart as his crew chief until he retired. Now Chris Gayle takes over, who made a lot of questionable calls as the crew chief for Ty Gibbs last year. Gayle only has two wins to his name as a Cup Series Crew Chief.
On top of age and changes, Hamlin didn’t win a race after April last year, which is already a little concerning. Even though he had three wins by April, Hamlin hasn’t had a four-win season (what’s needed to hit the over here) since 2020 when he won seven races. Can Hamlin win four races? Absolutely, he’s a talented driver in a good car. But it’s going to be very hard for him to get there, and he hasn’t done it for the last four years in a row, so I have to go under.
Ty Gibbs Over .5 Wins (-132)
Let’s shift over to Hamlin’s teammate, young Ty Gibbs. Gibbs is entering his third full-time season behind the wheel of the #54 Joe Gibbs Racing car. He’s yet to win in his Cup Series career, but he’s been close on a few occasions. The Daytona 500 will be Ty’s 80th career start in the Cup Series and it’s not uncommon even for stars to not get their first career win until they approach 100 races started.
Drivers who won their first race after their 80 start include: Alan Kulwicki, Jeff Burton, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Mark Martin, Bill Elliott, Ross Chastain, Ricky Rudd, and Dale Jarrett, just to name a few. As we know with these drivers, once they got there and got it done the win gates flooded open and they racked them up. I believe the same thing will happen for Ty, and it’ll start this season. I don’t think he’ll stop at one, it may be two or three wins for the young driver but all you need is one to cash this bet. Give me the over on Ty Gibbs.
For opinions and more conversation on every one of these win totals check out the NASCAR Gambling Podcast episodes Part 1 and Part 2! We break down each win total and give picks on each one.
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