It’s the final race of the Round of 12 for the NASCAR playoffs. After the Roval, it’ll be down to just eight drivers and they’ll have their first shot to clinch into the championship race next week at Las Vegas. Sunday’s race at the 17-turn 2.28-mile Charlotte Roval circuit will take place at 2:00 p.m. ET on NBC. Let’s take a look at the NASCAR picks, odds, and playoff standings for the Roval.
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Charlotte Motor Speedway made a few changes to the course this season removing the blind left side turn, and adding a hairpin that will be turn 7. In addition they pushed out the apex of the front stretch chicane to make turn 16 a sharper right hand turn.
William Byron is the only playoff driver with nothing to sweat at the Charlotte Roval. He locked himself into the Round of 8 with the points he acquired at Talladega last week. Christoper Bell (+57) and Kyle Larson (+52) head into the weekend feeling pretty good about their position. Bell needs to score just 11 points on the day no matter what anyone else does, and Larson needs just 16.
Denny Hamlin (+30) needs 38 points on the day, and Alex Bowman (+26) needs 42. Ryan Blaney enters the day (+25) to the good and can advance by earning 43 points no matter what anyone else does. Tyler Reddick (+14) and Chase Elliott (+13) are the last two drivers above the bubble. The other four drivers will need good days, and help from a few others to find their way to the next round. Joey Logano (-13), Daniel Suarez (-20), Austin Cindric (-29), and Chase Briscoe (-32) round out the four below the cut line.
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: Bank of America Roval 400
Shane Van Gisbergen +700
AJ Allmendinger +800
Kyle Larson +1000
William Byron +1100
Tyler Reddick +1200
Christopher Bell +1300
Chris Buescher +1400
Ty Gibbs +1400
Chase Elliott +1500
Ross Chastain +1800
Michael McDowell +2200
Kyle Busch +2200
Martin Truex Jr +2400
Alex Bowman +2400
Daniel Suarez +2600
Austin Cindric +3700
Joey Logano +4400
Ryan Blaney +5000
Chase Briscoe +5000
Denny Hamlin +5000
Todd Gilliland +7000
Bubba Wallace +10000
Justin Haley +10000
Josh Berry +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000
Carson Hocevar +10000
Noah Gragson +10000
Austin Dillion +13000
Erik Jones +13000
Zane Smith +13000
Corey Lajoie +13000
Kaz Grala +28000
John Hunter Nemechek +28000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +28000
Ryan Preece +28000
Harrison Burton +39000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Daniel Hemric +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: Bank of America Roval 400
AJ Allmendinger Top 5 (+150)
AJ Allmendinger’s middle name should be Roval. The road course specialist absolutely loves this racetrack. He is the defending Cup Series race winner from last season and finished fourth here in 2022. What’s even more impressive, Allmendinger has four career starts at the Roval in the Xfinity Series, he is four-for-four winning all of them.
You may be thinking, well the AJ we’ve seen lately in the Cup Series lately hasn’t been that impressive on road courses. He only made it six laps into the race at Watkins Glen but in five of the last seven Cup Series road course races he’s finished inside of the top six. Also, he’s notably in the #16 car instead of the #13 this week that SVG will be driving, the #16 being the better of the two cars. Now, all he has to do is finish inside of the top five, on a day where he’s one of the drivers not worried about points racing. This is my favorite bet on the weekend.
At the Charlotte Roval minus 2021 where his engine blew up, AJ Allmendinger has a 4.0 average finish.
In the Next Gen, Allmendinger has had the best Total Speed Ranking in both races and his average finish is 2.5.
Won’t have the “Points Racing” liability others will have.
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) October 7, 2024
Winning Manufacturer Chevrolet (-140)
This one is juiced up a bit, but like I always say on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, “You only pay the juice if you lose” and this bet gives you a lot of ways to win. When you look at the outright market, the top four favorites are Chevrolet drivers, Van Gisbergen, Allmendinger, Larson, and Byron. Tyler Reddick is the first non-Chevy, who I’ve already bet at 12/1 so I’m covered there as well. Chase Elliott has won here twice, Ross Chastain is a road course winner, Kyle Busch has been strong here and Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez have won at road or street courses.
As far as competition, Toyota is the next strongest manufacturer but their numbers aren’t as big, or as favorite as Chevrolets. We’re covered on Reddick so that just levels us susceptible to former winner here Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs who’s yet to win a cup race, and Martin Truex Jr whose one foot into retirement as the true drivers who have a real shot at winning. The Ford camp is the weakest on road courses with Chris Buescher and Michael McDowell being their biggest threats. Ryan Blaney has won here before, but outside of that, it would be a longshot for a Logano, Cindric, or Briscoe to beat us on this bet. Chevy has the best road course racers and a lot of great options that make this a good bet. It also gives you skin in the game until the end with any variety of the favorites.
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: Bank of America Roval 400
Kyle Busch Under (Better) Than 8.5 Finishing Position (+100)
Kyle Busch is a strong road course racer, and he loves the Roval. Over the last three seasons, Busch has finishes of fourth (2021), third (2022), and third (2023) the last three seasons in this race. Earlier this season at Sonoma Busch finished 12th, while at COTA he scored a ninth-place finish. While I don’t count the Chicago Street Course as a road course, Busch did finish ninth there as well, showing his prowess on tracks that take lefts and rights.
AJ Allmendinger to Win (+800)
Scroll up to see why. But seriously, as the case was made for him to finish in the top five, I also love his outright this weekend. Allmendinger has been great at this track, a five-time winner between the Xfinity and Cup Series. He’s back in the 16 car, which will be his home in 2025 full-time again. He’s going to have the reps from Saturday’s race to help him navigate Sunday’s Cup race. I’ll be betting AJ 8/1 for this race, and I’ll also be parlaying him to sweep the weekend at 29/1. Allmendinger is about to remind everyone why we’ve been so enamored with his road course racing skills.
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