2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Preview

2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Preview

After an emphatic United States victory at the 2024 Presidents Cup, the PGA Tour FedEx Cup Fall swing continues with a trip down to Mississippi. It’s the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson. As always, here is your early deep dive on the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship and a preview of how to bet.

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2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Preview

The Golf Course

In 1914, a group of wealthy local businessmen helped fund and build the Country Club of Jackson. The golf course was relocated in 1960.

The country club underwent a significant renovation in 2008 by John Fought. His vision was to reincorporate classic Donald Ross design features and restore the greens with new Bermuda turfgrass.  After the renovation, the club successfully lobbied the PGA Tour to move the Sanderson Farms Championship away from the Annandale Golf Club and hosted the tournament on its Dogwood and Azalea Championship Courses for the first time in 2015.

Some Donald Ross renovations are tremendously successful, such as the renovation of the Sedgefield Country Club for the Wyndham Championship. Some aren’t, like Rees Jones’ ruination of East Lake. Unfortunately for Fought, the land didn’t give him all that much to work with. While the Country Club of Jackson has some Ross elements in it, overall, it’s not a very exciting golf course:

 

Fought did a pretty good job with the hand he was dealt. One can definitely see classic Donald Ross principles in the golf course. The golf course has a classic out-to-in routing. It has a nice mix of left and right doglegs to force players to work the ball both ways. There’s some classic Ross undulation to the greens. The greenside bunkers also are pretty well done and are of the Donald Ross style. And there’s a good variety to the lengths of all the Par 3’s. Other than the agronomy, you could lift up this piece of property and put it in the Northeast and it wouldn’t look completely out of place.

But unless Fought wanted to move a ton of dirt, there isn’t a whole lot that could be done to the flat, swampy piece of property to make it more interesting. He did not try to force anything on the golf course and focused simply on creating a solid, no-nonsense track. The greens also don’t have as much dramatic undulation as a lot of Ross courses have. But overall, this is a perfectly fine golf course for a fall event on the PGA Tour.

Betting Strategies

Here is some general information about the Country Club of Jackson. This will assist in optimizing betting strategies for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship.

Par: 72

Length: 7,461 Yards

Architect: John Fought & Matt Gogel (2008)

Average Green Size: ~6,200 sq. feet

Agronomy: 

  • Fairways: Bermuda
  • Rough: Bermuda/Zoysia – 2″
  • Greens: Champion Bermuda
    • Here are other golf courses that feature Champion Bermuda greens:
      • Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship
      • The Dunes Golf and Beach Club – Myrtle Beach Classic
      • East Lake Golf Club – Tour Championship (2023 and prior)
      • Pinehurst No. 2 – 2024 U.S. Open
      • TPC Southwind – FedEx St. Jude Championship

Scoring at Country Club of Jackson

  • Average Scoring
    • 2023: -1.57
    • 2022: -1.02
    • 2021: -2.29
    • 2020: -1.03
  • Cut Line
    • 2023: -5
    • 2022: -2
    • 2021: -4
    • 2020: -3

When adjusted for strength of field, since 2015 the Country Club of Jackson ranks as the 79th out of 96 golf courses in terms of difficulty of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour. Given the slightly larger than average greens, the lack of significant adversity in terms of golf course design, and the typically favorable weather of early Fall Southeast weather, conditions are normally quite ripe for scoring at the Country Club of Jackson.

Off-The-Tee

Since 2015, the Country Club of Jackson ranks 49th out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty off-the-tee. In 2023, the tee shots ranked 31st out of 45 golf courses in terms of difficulty.

Since 2015, all measured drives at the Country Club of Jackson average 287.5 yards in length. That ranks 47th out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015 in terms of length. In 2023, the average measured drive at the Country Club of Jackson was 295.4 yards, good for 29th out of 45 golf courses on the PGA Tour. That continued a three year trend of significantly higher driving distances than the recent historical averages at the golf course.

Since 2015, the average driving accuracy at the Country Club of Jackson is only 54.6%. That’s the 18th lowest driving accuracy rate of all golf courses played since 2015. In 2023, only 53.7% of the field hit the fairway on their drive. That was good for the 13th lowest rate on the PGA Tour last season. In addition, the Country Club of Jackson has ranked inside the Top 10 in most fairways missed on the PGA Tour in five of the last 8 seasons.

A primary reason for the low driving accuracy rates is the typical firm turf conditions seen in the fall in Mississippi. That makes it difficult to hold fairways. In addition, the golf course has the 14th most narrow fairways of all golf courses played since 2015.

But like it was at Silverado, it’s not very penalizing to miss a fairway. There is only a 0.28 stroke difference between players who find the fairway off the tee and those who don’t on any given hole. That’s the 11th smallest difference of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour. The bermuda rough is only 2″ deep, which doesn’t promote as many inconsistent lies as other places. And without a lot of adversities in the landing zone off the tee, players can bomb away without fear at the Country Club of Jackson.

Approach

Since 2015, the Country Club of Jackson ranks 62nd out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty with the approach shots. In 2023, the approach shots ranked 33rd out of 45 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. In 2022, however, it ranked as the 19th most difficult. The primary difference was because of green firmness. Conditions were very firm in 2022. They were a little softer in 2023.

And that’s largely reflected in the change in green in regulation percentage year to year. In 2023, it was a whopping 72.4%, good for the 9th most last season. In 2022, however, it was only 64.9%, which was roughly PGA Tour average. Overall, however, the historically green in regulation percentage is about 70%, which is much higher than PGA Tour average. Despite the low driving accuracy rates, players don’t seem to have any issues finding the green with their second shot.

Finally, here is the approach shot distribution chart from the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship (per DataGolf):

Per a review of prior years of distribution charts, this allocation is very representative of the historical percentages at the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson. Year after year there is a higher than PGA Tour average volume of shots from between 100-150 yards, and from over 250 yards (primarily from the four reachable Par 5’s and one drivable Par 4. And there is significantly less between 150 and 250 yards.

Around The Green

Since 2015, the Country Club of Jackson ranks as the 72nd out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty around the green. It is annually one of the easier golf courses around the green on the PGA Tour. And no area seems to pose a lot of adversity towards getting up and down from off the green at the Country Club of Jackson. If anything, getting up and down fairway is moderately difficult due to the bermuda. But it’s not a brute like other places. And it’s one of the easiest on the entire PGA Tour from the greenside bunkers and rough to get up and down.

Putting

Since 2015, the Country Club of Jackson ranks as the 45th out of 96 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. However, in two of the last three seasons it was one of the easiest greens to putt on the PGA Tour. It ranked 31st out of 45 golf courses in difficulty in 2023 and 34th out of 38 golf courses in 2021. For those who putt well on bermuda, the greens at the Country Club of Jackson are very comfy confines. And though they are of a Donald Ross style, they’re merely a replica of the real thing.

Predictive Skillsets

Here’s the predictive skillset chart of what types of players are expected to do well at the Country Club of Jackson (per DataGolf). This will preview what types of players are expected to do well at the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship:

By far, the most correlated predictive skill set is driving distance. The correlation between driving distance and success at the Country Club of Jackson is one of the strongest predictors on the PGA Tour. There’s also almost no correlation between how good or poor one is in finding fairways, largely due to the lack of a penalty for missing a fairway as well as the organically low driving accuracy rates in the tournament.

Recent winners at the Country Club of Jackson include Luke List, Mackenzie Hughes, Sergio Garcia, Cameron Champ, and Sebastian Munoz. With the exception of Mackenzie Hughes, all of them drive it a long way. However, even Hughes has done extensive speed training in the last few years in order to get more pop off the tee. It is fitting that he returned to the winners circle on a golf course where power off the tee has been so predictive towards success.

In addition, there’s a higher-than-average correlation between good putters who do well at the Country Club of Jackson. The relatively easy conditions tee-to-green, as well as the higher-than-average frequency of short approach shots can sometimes make this tournament a putting contest.

This was on full display at the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship (per DataGolf):

There was a significantly higher correlation for ones in-tournament overall strokes gained that was attributed to putting than the typical PGA Tour event. And this has been the case in every Sanderson Farms Championship since at least 2015.

Lastly, here are other golf courses with a similar course fit model (per DataGolf):

  • Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open)
  • Torrey Pines South (Farmers Insurance Open)
  • Caves Valley Golf Club (2021 BMW Championship)
  • Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Championship)
  • Nicklaus Tournament Course – PGA West (The American Express)
  • Quail Hollow Club
  • TPC Boston
  • Valhalla GC
  • Trinity Forest Golf Club

Follow the tips in this preview, and one should put together a solid betting card or DFS lineup for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship.

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