Thought it was all over? Guess again! The season continues with the start of the Fall Series as the PGA Tour heads to Silverado Resort for the 2024 Procore Championship in Napa, California. As always, here is a preview of the 2024 Procore Championship and a guide to betting the tournament.
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2024 Procore Championship Preview
The Golf Course
The golf course at the Silverado Resort was built in 1955. In 1966, Robert Trent Jones renovated the golf course. The North Course on the property hosted several PGA Tour events, including the Kaiser Open and the Anheuser Busch Classic. It was most recently dubbed as the Safeway Open. In 2021, the tournament has a new sponsor in Fortinet.
In 2010, Johnny Miller spearheaded the purchase of the Silverado Resort with the aid of several local businessmen. He then redesigned the golf course. Part of Miller’s motivation to purchase the resort was fond memories of the golf course. He won two tournaments there in 1974 and 1975.
Miller self-admits that he’s not the best architect on the block. But he felt confident that he could make significant improvements to the golf course because he “knew (he) could do a better job than anybody because (he) knew every square inch of (the property).” So humble, Johnny.
Among the renovations Johnny made to the golf course was lengthening it to just over 7,200 yards and widening the narrow corridors of the golf course (though the fairways have been narrowed back to 20 yards wide in the fairways). Johnny Miller loved being aggressive off the tee, and he wanted to build a golf course where the players could hit driver as much as possible.
While the fairways aren’t as wide as some other places on the PGA Tour, almost all the holes feature long, straight-away tee-to-green layouts where golfers can pick a line off the tee and bomb away. Miller also did significant work re-configuring both fairway and greenside bunkers.
As far as a golf course and tournament goes, it’s meh. But for a fan experience, it’s one of the more top-notch tournaments to attend. Napa Valley is a foodie and wine-o mecca, and this tournament pulls out all the stops. Fans are treated to numerous wine and liquor tents with the best Napa Valley offerings. In addition, celebrity Chefs like Thomas Keller and Iron Chef Morimoto do cooking demonstrations to delight the palate. I
It might take some convincing of the wife to go with you to a golf tournament. But if you dangle a trip to Napa where she can sip on Chardonnay and munch on Morimoto’s cuisine creations all day, that might be enough to do it.
In 2023, the golf course underwent a “reimagination”. Which was a fancy way of saying the golf course was rerouted. While whole numbers changed, the golf course overall remained untouched. As such, the only difference between this year’s Procore Championship and other editions is the order in which it will be played. For more information about the re-routing, click here.
Betting Strategies
Here is some general information about the North Course at Silverado Resort. This will assist in optimizing betting strategies for the 2024 Procore Championship.
Par: 72
Length: 7,123 Yards
There haven’t been any significant changes to yardage since the tournament moved to Silverado.
Architect: Ben Harmon (1955)
Notable Renovations/Restorations
- Robert Trent Jones – 1966
- Johnny Miller – 2011
Average Green Size: ~5,400 sq. feet
The greens are a little less than PGA Tour average in size.
Agronomy:
- Fairways: Bermuda/Poa/Rye
- Collars/Approaches: Poa/Bentgrass/Ryegrass
- Rough: Bluegrass/Ryegrass – 2.5″
- Compared to other golf courses with bluegrass or ryegrass rough, this is a fairly short cut by PGA Tour standards.
- Greens: Poa Annua/Bentgrass Mix
- While the exact composition is unknown, given its location in California it’s probably safe to say these greens are more poa than bentgrass.
Past Champions of Procore Championship
- 2023: Sahith Theegala (-21)
- 2022: Max Homa (-16)
- 2021: Max Homa (-19)
- 2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
- 2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
While the winning score at Silverado hasn’t gotten too out of control when compared to other PGA Tour locations, in two of the last four years it required a score of at least -20 to get the job done. In addition, all these players tend to be pretty good drivers with a little bit of pop in their arsenal. Even old man Cink, who added yards off the tee for a bit of a late career resurgence in 2020 and 2021.
Scoring at Silverado Resort
- 2023: -0.94
- 2022: -0.55
- 2021: -1.07
- 2020: -1.86
- 2019: –0.87
With the exception of 2022, Silverado is fairly receptive to scoring. Especially once the field is cut as this tournament tends to have one of the weakest crop of golfers playing in it. Scoring over the weekend tends to be at least -1 or better on average.
The 2022 Procore Championship experienced some weather issues. Particularly in the final round. The 2022 Procore Championship saw cold, rainy and windy conditions. As such, check the weather forecast to see if any inclement weather is in play this weekend.
Off-The-Tee
Since 2015, Silverado Resort ranks 36th out of 95 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty off-the-tee. In 2023, the tee shots ranked 17th out of 45 golf courses in terms of difficulty. It’s ranked slightly above average in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour for the last three seasons.
Since 2015, all measured drives at Silverado Resort average 286.8 yards in length. That ranks 43rd out of 95 golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015 in terms of length. In 2023, the average measured drive at Silverado was 291.5 yards, good for 23rd longest out of 45 golf courses on the PGA Tour. Over the last three years, the average drive has gotten much longer than the historical average at the golf course. Players seem to be taking a more aggressive approach off the tee.
Since 2015, the average driving accuracy at Silverado Resort is only 51.3%. That’s the 8th lowest driving accuracy rate of all golf courses played since 2015. In 2023, only 47.2% of the field hit the fairway on their drive. That was good for the 3rd lowest rate on the PGA Tour last season. In addition, Silverado Resort has ranked inside the Top 5 in most fairways missed on the PGA Tour since the 2017 season.
A primary reason for the low driving accuracy rates is that the fairways are statistically the 5th narrowest on the PGA Tour of all golf courses played since 2015. And it has ranked as one of the Top 5 narrowest fairways on the PGA Tour every year since 2020. With fairways only 20-25 yards wide and players opting to pull driver more often, the driving accuracy percentage has been below 50% the last three seasons.
However, it is not penal at all to miss a fairway at Silverado. Since 2015, it ranks 71st out of 95 golf courses in terms of the scoring difference between balls that find the fairway and those that miss a fairway. Of that, it ranks 57th out of 95 golf courses in terms of the scoring difference between fairway approach shots and shots from the rough. Lastly, only 1.8% of all tee shots incur a penalty stroke, which is 70th out of 95 golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015.
The combination of low rough, manageable fairway bunkers and slow, flat, and typically softer greens doesn’t highly penalize players for errant drives at Silverado Resort.
Approach
Since 2015, Silverado Resort ranks 40th out of 95 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty with the approach shots. In 2023, the approach shots ranked 24th out of 45 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in the 2023 season in terms of difficulty.
Despite low driving accuracy rates and smaller greens, players generally hit the greens in regulation at Silverado at a fairly high rate. Since 2015, the average green in regulation rate at Silverado Resort is 68.5%. That’s the 29th highest rate of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015. Last year, the green in regulation rate was 70.6%, which ranked 16th out of 45 golf courses in terms of GIR % during the 2023 season.
In addition, Silverado Resort features the 50th (out of 95) most difficult approach shots from under 150 yards. While short approach shots were fairly difficult at the 2022 Procore Championship, in ideal conditions for 2023 it ranked as the 16th easiest from under 150 yards on the PGA Tour. That’s more in line historically at Silverado.
It also ranks as the 33rd (out of 95) most difficult golf course on the PGA Tour in approach shots over 150 yards since 2015. This includes ranking 20th out of 45 golf courses in 2022 in terms of difficulty. Longer approach shots into smaller greens naturally increases the difficulty of the shot.
Finally, here is the approach shot distribution chart from the 2023 Procore Championship (per DataGolf):
Per review of prior years of distribution charts, this allocation is very representative of the historical percentages at the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort. There’s a heavier concentration of shots from under 150 yards than most PGA Tour venues. And a much higher one from over 250 yards. But between 150-250 yards, it’s a relatively dead zone compared to other PGA Tour venues.
Around The Green
Since 2015, Silverado Resort ranks as the 36th out of 95 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty around the green. However, the around-the-green conditions at Silverado have ranked inside the Top 12 in terms of difficulty in six of the last 11 years, including 7th toughest during the 2022-2023 season.
The most difficult areas around the green seem to be from the fairway. Silverado Resort has been one of the 10 most difficult golf courses to get up and down from the fairway in seven of the last 10 years. In addition, it’s ranked 10th toughest to get up and down from the rough in three of the last five years.
However, in 2023 it didn’t play nearly as tough as it had around the green. Maybe the ideal weather conditions had something to do with that. Or it could have been an anomaly.
Putting
Since 2015, Silverado Resort ranks as the 32nd out of 95 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. But it’s been quite variable of how difficult it posed each season. In four of the last 11 seasons, it ranked as one of the Top 10 most difficult venues to putt at. But also in four of the last 11 seasons, it was below average in terms of difficulty. Without any major changes to the greens, it’s difficult to speculate exactly what it was.
But overall, the greens are in excellent shape and don’t have a ton of undulation to it. However, it’s possible that that poa annua could pose a problem for those not used to putting on that grass. Or that maybe there’s a variability year to year of how much or little poa composes the mix in each green.
Predictive Skillsets
Here’s the predictive skillset chart of what types of players are expected to do well at Silverado (per DataGolf). This will preview what types of players are expected to do well at the 2023 Procore Championship.
Only a couple things stand out on this chart. First is the fairly significant low correlation between driving accuracy and success at Silverado. On the surface, the recent winners at this tournament certainly back this claim. No one would call Sahtih Theegala or Cam Champ accurate drivers.
But another significant reason is the narrowness of the fairways combined with the overall lack of penalty for missing the fairway. Even the most accurate players will struggle to find fairways when they’re only 20-25 yards wide. As such, there simply isn’t a big edge trying to handicap this tournament based on how often one finds fairways (as it is in most tournaments anyways).
However, in recent tournaments there has been a higher correlation towards ones in-tournament Strokes Gained – Off-the-Tee through driving accuracy than the typical PGA Tour event. Translation – while there’s no correlation before the tournament to picking players based on driving accuracy, once the tournament begins those who are finding fairways more find more success.
In addition, there appears to be a higher correlation towards better putters finding success at Silverado than other venues. Could this possibly be the effect of the poa annua? Similarly at other poa annua golf courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, there’s a higher correlation of better putters finding success there too. It takes confidence to putt on poa annua. Therefore, better putters generally fare better. This could be the case at Silverado too.
In addition, here are other golf courses with a similar course fit model (per DataGolf):
- La Quinta CC
- TPC Craig Ranch
- Memorial Park Golf Course
- The Renaissance Club
- TPC Summerlin
- Hamilton Golf and Country Club
- Olympia Fields CC
- PGA National
- Nine Bridges
- Detroit Golf Club
- Pebble Beach
- Grand Reserve CC
- Accordia Golf Narashino
Follow the tips in this preview, and one should put together a solid betting card or DFS lineup for the 2024 Procore Championship.
