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Underdog Fantasy MLB Daily Pick’em Plays – August 28
Aaron Judge Higher Than 11.0 Fantasy Points
Aaron Judge somehow put together a better season in 2024 than in 2022. His numbers are Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth level insane. He now has a higher slugging percentage (.732) than the league-average OPS (.714), which might be the most ridiculous statistic I have ever encountered.
On Wednesday, Judge and the Bronx Bombers take on the Washington Nationals. On the hill for Washington is left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore. The young pitcher has had an up-and-down season. Much has been made of the Yankees struggles against left-handed starters this season. They just let Patrick Corbin throw six innings of shutout ball against them.
But one thing on our side in this one is Judge’s career numbers against Gore. Judge is 2-3 against Gore, with two homers and an average exit velocity of 104 MPH. Yes, this is a small sample size, but Judge against any pitcher in the game is a good matchup.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Higher Than 1.5 Total Bases
Vlad Jr. has also been red hot this month, and we have taken advantage of this several times in August. Guerrero is second in OPS since the All-Star break and is really the only relevant hitter left on the Blue Jays. On Wednesday, the Blue Jays are facing their division foes, the Red Sox, and Bryan Bello will get the start for Boston.
Vlad has faced Bello quite a few times in his career and has had success: 8/19, 2 home runs, xBA .362. I think Vlad will keep up his hot hitting and end the month with a bang!
Taijuan Walker Lower Than 3.0 Strikeouts
Taijuan Walker has struggled in his three starts since returning from the IL, allowing 12 earned runs. Today, he faces the Houston Astros with his strikeout number set to 3.0. I know this seems super low, but there are a few reasons why taking the ‘Lower Than’ makes a ton of sense.
First, the Astros strike out the third-least in baseball as a team, which has been a staple of their offensive success since 2016. Also, Houston hitters have just a 5.1% strikeout rate against Walker in their careers.
Second, Walker does not get many swings and misses or strikeouts. His chase rate is in the 8th percentile, his whiff rate is in the 2nd percentile, and his strikeout rate is in the 18th percentile. Not great. There is also a chance that Houston will knock him out of the game before this number becomes a sweat for us.
If you want to tail this Pick’em roster but aren’t using Underdog Fantasy for daily Pick’em already, sign up today and use promo code ‘SGPN,’ and they’ll match your very first deposit. You can also get even more help on your MLB plays for August 28 by listening to the MLB Gambling Podcast.
