Tom Brady and the New England Patriots long dominated the AFC East. They won the division crown in 17 of 19 seasons from 2001 through 2019. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills took over in 2020, winning their first division title since 1995. They have now won the AFC East for four years straight. This is one of the tougher divisions in all of football in 2024, with three of the four teams making a solid case to take home top dog. Now, let’s look at the 2024 AFC East Division Preview.
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2024 AFC East Division Preview
Buffalo Bills (O/U 10.5 Wins)
The Buffalo Bills had some massive turnover this off-season. They have some big names to replace on both sides of the ball, most notably at wide receiver, with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis both finding new homes in the off-season. The question is, will it be rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, or another receiver who steps up?
When Josh Allen took over in 2018, the Bills went just 6-10. In every year since, they’ve had at least 10 wins. They’ve gone over the 10.5-win mark in the last four consecutive years. So, the question now is, can they keep that streak alive? The division continues to get tough, with the Dolphins being a strong competitor each season and the Jets once again trying to start the Aaron Rodgers era.
The Bills struggled through the first half of last season before switching offensive coordinators from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. Brady has been a part of some strong offenses before but has had difficulty finding where to land. The Bills will be a good team, and they should flirt with 10 wins. I just don’t see 11 happening this year.
Win Total Bet: Under 10.5 (-125)
New York Jets (O/U 10 Wins)
It’s take two for the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers era in New York. The team brought back Morgan Moses and made their number one pick an offensive tackle to help immediately shore up the line in front of Rodgers, hoping he can play more than four snaps in 2024.
Their first five picks were all on the offensive side. After the big offensive tackle in Fashanu, the Jets grabbed Malachi Corley to catch passes from Rodgers and Braelon Allen to help spell Breece Hall in the backfield. The Jets are all in on this Aaron Rodgers offense.
After going 7-10 in 2023 with a variety of backup quarterbacks at the helm, the New York Jets have a win total for the 2024 season set at 10.5 and are tied with the Buffalo Bills as the favorites to win the AFC East (+180) in 2024. Aaron Rodgers’ window could be closing fast, and if head coach Robert Saleh can’t get it done, his seat could be a pretty hot one.
It’s now or never for the Jets under Rodgers, and it was impressive how they could win seven games with the likes of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle under center. Is Aaron Rodgers worth 3-4 more wins? You have to think so.
Win Total Bet: Over 10 (+100)
Miami Dolphins (O/U 9.5 Wins)
The Miami Dolphins were up against the salary cap, needing to re-sign their wide receivers. They did just that, restructuring Tyreek Hill’s contract, guaranteeing him $65 million over the next three seasons of the $90 million deal. Tyreek’s running mate Jaylen Waddle also cashed in big in the off-season. He signed a three-year extension worth $84.75 million, bringing the total of his contract through 2028 to $104.6 million.
With his weapons locked up, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was up next. The Dolphins signed their franchise quarterback to a $212.4 million contract extension, including $167.1 million in guaranteed money. The loss of Xavien Howard is a big one on the defensive side, but the signings of veterans Kendall Fuller and Jordan Poyer should help the Dolphins’ defense backfield out. There was a lot of turnover on this Dolphins roster as they navigated the salary cap, but they did a solid job of replacing players they lost.
The Dolphins have averaged 9.5 wins over the last four years, going 11-6 last year after back-to-back nine-win seasons. The Dolphins’ offense seems unstoppable at most times, and it’s surprising they have the third-biggest win total in the division. 10 wins seem like the floor for this explosive team.
Win Total Bet: Over 9.5 (-130)
New England Patriots (O/U 4.5 Wins)
It’s a new era in New England. Bill Belichick is out, and Jerod Mayo takes over the job. The Patriots had the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft and selected Drake Maye, the quarterback from North Carolina. Maye has a high upside but may take some time to develop.
Jacoby Brissett could be (and is currently the favorite to be) the Patriots Week 1 starter. With big changes to their core, the 2024 New England Patriots are difficult to preview in advance of the NFL Season.
The Patriots focused on the offensive side of the ball in the draft to support the young quarterback. Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker should battle for playing time immediately. The Patriots also threw a late pick on tight end Jaheim Bell to join Hunter Henry in the tight end room after Pharaoh Brown and Mike Gesicki both left town.
The Patriots spent their third-round pick on offensive tackle Caedan Wallace out of Penn State. Their three biggest needs going into the draft were quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive line, and they addressed them in that order in the draft. Wallace mostly played right tackle in college, but the Patriots believe he’s their left tackle of the future.
Last year was rock bottom for the Patriots, and they still managed a four-win season, their worst since 1992. Mayo has a lot to prove as a coach, but this team should have some grit. Especially if Brissett starts the season, the over is the way to go. It won’t be pretty five wins, but I expect a gritty five wins from this team.
Win Total Bet: Over 4.5 (-130)
AFC East Betting Preview Division Winner
Buffalo Bills +180
New York Jets +180
Miami Dolphins +200
New England Patriots +2500
The 2024 AFC East could be one of the toughest in the league. The Bills have, of course, dominated it of late, but the Jets are loaded up in win-now mode with Aaron Rodgers, and the Dolphins have been right on their heels the past few years. All three teams are led by stellar quarterbacks, and all have playoff expectations in 2024.
Anyone could argue to bet on any of these three teams to win the AFC East in 2024, and nobody could blame you. Sorry, Patriots fans, if you want to bet the 25/1 on them, maybe Drake Maye is this year’s CJ Stroud, but it’s unlikely.
The Bills have the sixth hardest schedule on the season regarding the strength of opponents, while the Jets check in at 12th and the Dolphins are 24th on the list or flipped around. The Dolphins have the seventh-easiest schedule of all 32 NFL teams.
There are a lot of questions surrounding both the Bills and Jets coming into the year. The Bills have a lot of changes in offensive personnel and questions about how their offense will run. The Jets have a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear last season who hasn’t spent any time actually playing on this team.
Combine all these question marks with the strength of the schedule for these three teams, and the Dolphins keep jumping out to me. Their core remains the same, and their offense is one of the deadliest in the NFL’s history. Mike McDaniel is a competent head coach, and this team seems poised to take the next step.
Division Winner: Miami (+200)
AFC East Player Prop Best Bet
Josh Allen has gone over this mark in five of his six NFL seasons. Although he tapered off a little last year, rushing for just 524 yards after 762 and 763 in the two previous seasons, respectively, he still went over the mark. Ken Dorsey was calling plays for the first 10 games of the season, where Allen averaged just 4.8 rushing attempts per game.
Once Joe Brady took over as the playcaller, the Bills set their focus on the running game more. Over the last eight games of the regular season Allen averaged 9 carries per game, a staggering difference in the two offenses.
Add together hitting it every season, the extra game he has now that he hasn’t always had, less big weapons like Stefon Diggs, and a coordinator who will likely stick to the run more.
Plus, as mentioned above, maybe they aren’t winning the expected number of games and need to push harder. Who better than to put the ball in your best player’s hands and let him go get it? Expect a huge rushing year from Allen, and he will easily cruise past 480.5 rushing yards in 2024.
AFC East Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 480.5 Rushing Yards
