Dudes Who Dong: Home Run Props for Friday, August 23, 2024
Everyone loves a DONG, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props (aka “Dudes Who Dong”) to play on August 23, 2024, across all MLB action.
“I’m Crash Davis; I’m your new catcher, and you just got lesson number one. Don’t think. You can only hurt the ball club.” – “Bull Durham”
I skipped last week because I was at Phish for four days and if that concerns you then you can just bounce around the room and get out of here. Two weeks ago we went 1-2 as Vlad the Impaler cashed his bases prop. Jonathan India and Masataka Yoshida sold though. As Twitter touts say when they lose and want you to ignore it, WE MOVE….
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Jorge Soler (Atlanta Braves)
Remember him? He’s been out for a week because he hurt his hammy running too hard against his former team – the San Francisco Giants. Jorge Soler may pretend he wants to steal bases but this dude really wants to mash. This is evident by his hard-hit metrics in August: A max EV of 107, 6 barrels, 17 hard hits, and a HH rate of 56.7% in just 12 games!!! Now that I’ve sold you on the nerd metrics, here are some more – he has an OPS of 1.139 over the last 28 days, 1.472 over the last two weeks. He also carries a wRC+ of 167 against LHP this season. Guess who is left-handed? Nationals start MacKenzie Gore. Gore himself has a HR/FB rate of over 14% to RHHs over the last 4 weeks. This is truly – as WWE Hall of Fame Announcer and Wrestler proclaimed – the immovable object vs the irresistible force and can be seen in this Outlier.Bet shot below.
Now I know what you’re thinking, “Berg, isn’t MacKenzie Gore super jacked up the last few weeks since the Trump assassination attempt?” – you’re right, but it’s not going to matter here because righties are slugging over .400 off him on the road.
I’ve long had a theory that dudes making their “return” to a lineup after an absence should be auto-bets and it doesn’t stop with Jorge. Taking his bases at MGM and his dong at FD.
Jorge Soler o1.5 Total Bases MGM (risk 1U)
HR +370 FD (risk .25u)
Joc Pederson (Arizona Diamondbacks)
We’re of course going to go to our fellow tribe member Joc Pederson on Shabbat. He absolutely mashes in general and does it more so Friday nights. He’s hit dongs on 6 out of the last 7 Friday night Shabbat service nights. The dude just knows how to celebrate. Btw – he’s Jewish. That’s why this bit works. I digress…
Joc is batting .375 this week with a team -leading max EV of 109! He’s a lefty so going against the Red Sox’ Brayan Bello in a stadium that benefits lefties is an ideal situation. Almost as ideal as the fact that Bello carries a HR/FB rate of 19.7% vs LHHs. He stinks.
Joc crushing righties (he has hits in 9 straight against them) and a wOBA of .445 against sinker balls (Bello’s favorite pitch) have us ready to say “L’Chaim” for this young man as he crushes a baseball (and his haftarah Bar Mitzvah portion) over the Fenway center field wall. Grab his bases and his dong (it’s snipped, obviously).
Joc Pederson o1.5 Total Bases +120 Bet365 (risk 1U)
HR +500 FD (risk .25u)
Vinnie Pasquantino (Kansas City Royals)
I get it – every tout on Twitter told you to bet Bobby Witt. Go nuts with that -150 base price. Seriously, have at it. I’m backing the Italian Stallion tonight against Taijuan Walker and my Philadelphia Phillies.
First of all, let’s be clear – Walker is not good. At all. His HR/9 is over 3. That’s so incredibly bad. You could do better. Even the dude sitting next to you.
Vinnie P is quietly just always mashing. Batting behind Bobby Witt, he gets great pitches and doesn’t worry about Lefty on Lefty matchups. He just gets up and clubs. Over the past week, he’s second on the team in hard hits (to Witt, of course) with 12. His hard hit rate is 57% and he has a slugging percentage of .609. I get that Kauffman isn’t an ideal hitter’s park but Vinnie doesn’t care – he hits .290 there overall and near .300 vs RHP (Walker is right-handed if you care). Btw, LHHs are hitting over .500 vs Phillies pitchers in August – that’s awful.
Pasquatch cashed his bases for us the other week so we’re going back to that well – over 1.5 bases and his big ol’ dong at +625.
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases +100 MGM (risk 1U)
HR +625 MGM (risk .25u)
Your handy-dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
Hopefully you got through this article and learned about what happens at a bar mitzvah and clicked the link on “big ol’ dong” in the Vinnie P write-up for a surprise. Good luck with your bets, and LET IT RIDE.