NASCAR heads to the Irish Hills of Cambridge Township, Michigan, this week for a 400-mile race on the two-mile speedway. Only three races remain in NASCAR’s regular season, with a close battle on the playoff cut line. Let’s take a look at my bets in this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the FireKeepers 400 at Michigan Speedway.
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NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Speedway
First, though, there was huge news in the NASCAR world on Wednesday. NASCAR issued a penalty to the #3 of Austin Dillion, last week’s winner at Richmond. They allowed him to keep the Richmond win, but that win will not allow him a spot in the playoffs. Richard Childress Racing has already issued a statement and plans to appeal that ruling. Joey Logano was also fined $50,000. For his pit road antics post-race.
Richmond penalties:
-Austin Dillon keeps win but the automatic playoff berth is revoked for both driver and owner championships.
-Dillon and team docked 25 points
-Dillon spotter Brandon Benesch suspended three races
-Joey Logano fined $50,000— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) August 14, 2024
Odds to Win FireKeepers Casino 400
Denny Hamlin +650
Kyle Larson +700
Tyler Reddick +850
Ryan Blaney +850
Martin Truex Jr +1000
Christopher Bell +1000
Brad Keselowski +1100
Joey Logano +1200
William Byron +1400
Chase Elliott +1400
Chris Buescher +2000
Ty Gibbs +2200
Bubba Wallace +2500
Ross Chastain +3000
Alex Bowman +3500
Kyle Busch +4000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Josh Berry +10000
Carson Hocevar +12000
Austin Cindric +12000
Noah Gragson +12000
Erik Jones +12000
Chase Briscoe +25000
Todd Gilliland +25000
Austin Dillion +25000
Michael McDowell +25000
Ryan Preece +3000
AJ Allmendinger +30000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +30000
Justin Haley +30000
Zane Smith +50000
Corey Lajoie +50000
Daniel Hemric +50000
Harrison Burton +50000
Cody Ware +50000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks
Kyle Larson Top 5 Finish (-110)
Kyle Larson is arguably the greatest driver in the world right now and is fresh off two huge career wins. He won just two races ago at Indianapolis in NASCAR’s return to the Brickyard 400. Last week, he claimed another Knoxville nationals win in his dirt track sprint car.
Now, we head to a track where he won three races in a row when he was with Chip Ganassi in the #42 car. Now, let’s look at the most comparable races this season to Michigan.
You could certainly make some comparisons to Indianapolis as far as size goes—Larson won there. But the two truest comparison tracks are Kansas and Las Vegas. Luckily, we’ve been to both tracks this season. Kyle Larson won both of them.
Erik Jones Top 10 Finish (+400)
I talk on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast about Erik Jones a lot this week, as I’m very high on him. The Michigan native just signed a fresh multi-year contract extension with Legacy Motor Club to keep him in the famed #43 car for years to come. Jones has loved this track since early in his career. In his second start here, he drove the Furniture Row Racing car to a third-place finish.
Jones has been improving since breaking his back a few months ago and has looked stronger with a 14th-place finish at Pocono a few weeks ago. Last year here Erik finished in 10th place, two years ago he scored an eighth-place finish. His equipment can be questionable at times, but Jones seems to thrive on this style of track, and I expect him to battle for a top 10 at the end of the day.
Tyler Reddick Top Finishing Toyota (+330)
While the Toyota group is a strong one, it’s a smaller group, which makes it easier to hit the top Chevy or top Ford. Toyota has had some engine issues lately, obviously, that could hit Tyler, but it could also take down some of his competitors in this.
Denny Hamlin is the biggest threat gee, he’s good almost every week and great at this track style, but things still happen. Martin Truex Jr and Christopher Bell both have speed weekly but are less consistent, while the other Toyota’s are more hit-and-miss.
Reddick was arguably the fastest car in last year’s race here, battling back and forth with Chris Buescher for the lead. A late pit mistake cost him big time, and he took them out of the running.
Reddick won at Kansas last fall and is currently on a streak of six straight top-six finishes, and in eight of the last nine races, he’s been in the top eight. He’s constantly battling upfront and will be in a position to cash this bet at a great number.
Kyle Larson to Win (+700)
This number is simply way too big compared to what it should be. Larson is the most recent larger intermediate track (Indianapolis) winner. He’s already won at the two most similar tracks to Michigan in Kansas and Las Vegas this year. It’s surprising that FanDuel still has this number listed, and it likely won’t last much longer.
