The NFL season is upon us, and it’s almost time to start wagering on those regular season games. We are going to dive into the best NFL teams to bet on. We’ll look at their record against the spread (ATS), not only last year but over the past few seasons. This will be useful information as we get into the season on which teams to look at betting more on and which teams to look at betting more against.
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Best NFL Teams to Bet on: Every Team’s Against the Spread Performance
What is the “Spread”
If you are new to betting on football, first of all welcome, and here’s a quick rundown of the basics of how it works. It wouldn’t be fair to the bookmakers or you to just match the Kansas City Chiefs, the winners of the last two Super Bowls, against the Carolina Panthers, the worst team in football last year, straight up. Because obviously it’s much more likely Kansas City will win.
So, instead, they use the “points spread” to decide how much better a team is. Say the spread is set at -6.5 for the Chiefs, and you bet on them. Then, you need them to win by seven or more points. If the Panthers are +6.5 and you bet on them, they just need to lose by six points or less or win the game. If they do so, they’ve now “covered the spread.”
2023 ATS Records
Detroit 14-6
Kansas City 13-7-1
LA Rams 11-6-1
Baltimore 12-7
Tampa Bay 12-7
Las Vegas 10-6-1
Cleveland 10-7-1
Green Bay 11-8
Dallas 10-8
Pittsburgh 10-8
Miami 10-8
Chicago 8-7-2
Seattle 8-7-2
Jacksonville 9-8
Indianapolis 9-8
Arizona 9-8
Houston 10-9
NY Giants 8-8-1
Minnesota 7-7-3
Cincinnati 7-8-2
San Francisco 9-11
Philadelphia 7-9-2
Tennessee 7-9-1
Buffalo 8-11
Washington 6-10-1
Denver 6-10-1
NY Jets 6-10-1
New Orleans 6-10-1
LA Chargers 6-11
New England 5-11-1
Atlanta 5-12
Carolina 4-11-2
The Detroit Lions were last year’s darling team for the sports bettor. Not only did they soar to a real record of 12-5, they covered the spread in 14 games. Heading into the 2024 season, according to look-ahead lines, the Lions are projected to be favored in all but four of their games.
The trend from last year was, for the most part, very chalky. Good teams cover the spread. The Lions, Chiefs, Rams, and Ravens are all well-coached teams that win a lot of games. The Buccaneers were a surprisingly good team, with Baker Mayfield taking them to the playoffs.
Clearly, the lines never caught up to how good they were. The Raiders got that ever-present fired coach bump. After Josh McDaniels was let go, the Raiders finished the season 7-1-1-1 ATS.
On the opposite side of the pill, bad teams were bad ATS. The Panthers had the worst record in the league and also the worst record ATS. Teams that struggled at quarterback, either with bad play or a rotating cast of characters, couldn’t be trusted ATS.
The Panthers, Falcons, Patriots, Jets, Broncos, and Commanders all fit this Bill at the bottom of the league. The Chargers and Saints were the outliers in that category.
ATS Record 2022
NY Giants 14-5-0
Detroit 12-5-0
Cincinnati 13-6-0
San Francisco 13-7-0
LA Chargers 11-6-1
Pittsburgh 10-6-1
Dallas 11-8-0
Tennessee 9-7-1
Miami 10-8-0
Atlanta 9-8-0
Carolina 9-8-0
Jacksonville 10-9-0
Philadelphia 10-10-0
Washington 8-8-1
Houston 8-8-1
Cleveland 8-9-0
Green Bay 8-9-0
Las Vegas 8-9-0
NY Jets 8-9-0
Buffalo 8-9-1
Arizona 8-9-0
Baltimore 8-9-1
New England 7-9-1
Kansas City 8-11-1
Minnesota 7-10-1
Denver 7-10
New Orleans 7-10
LA Rams 6-9-2
Seattle 7-11
Indianapolis 6-11
Chicago 5-11
Tampa Bay 4-13-1
ATS Record Over Last Three Seasons Combined (2021-2023)
Detroit 37-17
Dallas 34-21
Cincinnati 34-21-2
Green Bay 31-23
San Francisco 34-26
Miami 29-23-1
NY Giants 28-24-1
Pittsburgh 28-24-1
Baltimore 28-25-1
Kansas City 31-28-2
Tennessee 26-24-2
Arizona 27-25
Las Vegas 26-25-1
LA Rams 27-26-3
Houston 26-26-1
Buffalo 26-27-3
Indianapolis 25-26
LA Chargers 25-26-1
Cleveland 25-26-1
Seattle 24-26-2
Minnesota 23-25-4
Tampa Bay 26-29-1
Philadelphia 25-28-3
Jacksonville 24-29
New England 22-28-2
New Orleans 22-28-1
Washington 21-27-3
Denver 21-29-1
Atlanta 20-30-1
NY Jets 20-30-1
Chicago 19-29-3
Carolina 18-31-2
Looking at the last three years gives us a better idea of teams that have been good ATS over a more steady time period. The steady situation at the head coach jumps out on the top of the board. The Lions, Cowboys, Bengals, Packers, 49ers, Dolphins, Giants, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, and Titans all had that steady leader at head coach.
Many of those teams experienced quarterback changes or saw their regular starter miss significant time due to injury. But having a solid franchise and a great head coach makes a huge difference.
On the flip side of things, less steady franchises that have been through the quarterback ringer haven’t been good against the spread. The Panthers have struggled with multiple head coaches and quarterbacks.
The Bears have changed both head coach and quarterback in this period. The Jets quarterback situation has been a mess for Robert Saleh’s entire time in New York. Atlanta, Denver, Washington, New Orleans, and New England have all struggled to fix quarterback problems.
ATS Record Over Last Five Seasons Combined (2019-2023)
Green Bay 53-37
Miami 49-35-1
Detroit 50-36
Cincinnati 49-36-4
Baltimore 49-37-3
San Francisco 52-42-1
Dallas 48-39
Pittsburgh 46-38-2
LA Rams 47-39-4
Buffalo 47-40-5
Kansas City 51-44-4
Arizona 43-39-2
NY Giants 44-40-1
Las Vegas 42-41-1
Tennessee 43-42-3
New Orleans 43-42-1
Indianapolis 41-41-2
Tampa Bay 43-46-3
Seattle 40-44-3
Minnesota 39-43-4
Denver 39-43-1
Houston 40-45-2
LA Chargers 37-42-5
Cleveland 38-46-2
New England 37-45-3
Washington 36-44-4
Jacksonville 38-47
Philadelphia 38-48-3
Atlanta 35-47-1
Carolina 33-47-3
NY Jets 33-49-1
Chicago 31-50-3
Scoping out to the five-year range shows us the Green Bay Packers have been the most profitable team over that time frame. The Detroit Lions are the team that sticks out the most from all of these lists, though. They have been first and second in the last two seasons and third overall in the last five years.
The biggest takeaway for me is that it’s not the best of the best who are at the top. The Kansas City Chiefs do well but not great, at about 50/50 over the last five years. It’s the solid team with slightly lower expectations that has been crushing the betting ATS year after year in the NFL.