We’re just a few weeks away from the Hall of Fame game. That means the 2024 fantasy football draft season is just about here. Some drafts are underway, but there are a few situations that fantasy GMs have started to undervalue.
Almost every team has seen changes to their receiver corps, and this is an area that smart fantasy GMs can take advantage of. When Stephon Diggs was with the Buffalo Bills, he received 9.4 targets per game. Diggs is now in Houston, and Buffalo needs to replace those targets. Who is in line to benefit? Which other situations may offer similar opportunities in fantasy drafts?
Let’s dig into the Bills and other situations that should see an increase in target share in the upcoming season. These are names you’ll want to know for your upcoming 2024 fantasy football draft.
2024 Fantasy Football: Which pass catchers could see an increase in target share?
Who will get Stephon Diggs’ targets in Buffalo in 2024
The Buffalo Bills ended 2023 with the 10th most passing yards in the league. They also racked up the seventh most passing touchdowns in the league.
Stephon Diggs accounted for 27.4% of the team’s receiving yards and a 27.6% target share. Diggs has moved on to Houston, and the Bills have a lot of touches that they’ll need to dole out this year.
However, he’s not all the Bills lost this off-season. Gabe Davis moved on to Jacksonville, and he accounted for 17.3% of the receiving yards and 13.9% of total targets. That’s a lot of targets for the current group of pass catchers to soak up.
First, tight end Dalton Kincaid is likely due for a bump in production for the 2024 fantasy football season. Kincaid’s target share increased as the season went on last year and should continue to see an increase in 2024. There’s a chance that Kincaid will end the year as the top fantasy tight end if he can pick up a few additional targets.
Kincaid is currently going off the board in the late fifth round or early sixth round of most drafts. Once the draft season starts, he’s likely to pick up some helium and could start to get plucked a bit earlier. If you invest in Josh Allen in the second or third round, Kincaid makes sense as a comeback in the fourth or fifth round.
Keon Coleman is another name expected to make an impact for the Bills in 2024. Coleman has the size and strength to dominate in the slot, but it sounds like he’ll play 2024 as an X-receiver. Coleman struggled against man coverage in college, and he’ll likely face similar challenges in the NFL.
He’s getting drafted in the 10th round but is also a pre-season helium candidate.
The name to watch in Buffalo is Khalil Shakir. Shakir has a path to a job and appeared to earn Josh Allen’s trust as the year went on. He’s also heading into his third season in the league. Shakir is also going off the board about 10 picks after Coleman in most drafts. Coleman will get the headlines, but Shakir appears more likely to break out.
The Chargers are missing their top two receivers. Who will get targets in 2024?
The Los Angeles Chargers no longer have Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. Allen averaged 11.5 targets per game last year. Williams only played in three games but still managed 8.7 targets per game when he was healthy. That’s almost 20 total targets the Chargers will need to replace.
Josh Palmer slides up the depth chart and is in line to pick up a lot more targets in 2024. What’s odd is he was coming off a strong 2023 campaign, and both Allen and Williams missed time, but he didn’t see an increase in targets until the final few weeks.
The Chargers were without quarterback Justin Herbert for the last few weeks of the season, but Palmer and Herbert never really went off together.
Ladd McConkey was the Charger’s second-round pick in April, and he could fit the profile of a target sponge. McConkey graded well in one-on-one matchups and separation in college. He also has a clear path to a 20%+ target share in an offense that should throw the ball close to 500 times.
McConkey is currently getting drafted in the weird 8th-round to 10th-round range, but it’s really easy to build a late-round Chargers stack with Justin Herbert and a couple of pass catchers. If you’re looking for a flex with upside, McConkey could end up as a mid-round steal.
Another name to keep an eye on is D.J. Chark. Chark has struggled with injuries, but he’s a veteran with a 100+ and a 90+ target season under his belt. He’s buried on the depth chart, but all he has to do is leap over Palmer and Quentin Johnson. Palmer is about as mediocre as it gets, and Johnson may already be a bust.
Chark is a late round flyer that could end up stealing targets in an offense that has plenty of work to go around. He’s worth an end-of-a-draft pick for a team that needs a pass catcher who could work his way into targets.
Calvin Ridley is out in Jacksonville. Who takes over?
Calvin Ridley averaged 8.0 targets per game last year. He also went over 10 targets in three of his last five games last year. He’s now in Tennessee. The Jaguars also moved on from Zay Jones. Jones managed 64 targets last year.
Jacksonville brought in Gabe Davis through free agency and added Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of this year’s draft.
Evan Engram led the league in targets to a tight end last year, and he may get even more attention in 2024 without a clear top receiver on the roster. Running back Travis Etienne was the 7th most targeted running back in the league last year, and he could also see a bump in production.
Engram is getting slept on in most drafts and can be had around the sixth round. If he gets a few more red zone looks than last year, he could end the year as the best tight end in football. Etienne is typically gone before the 40th pick in a 12-team PPR league.
The value option here is Brian Thomas. Thomas is going off draft boards in the 9th or 10th round of most drafts, depending on how the board breaks. He has the size and athletic ability to get red zone targets.
He led the country in touchdown catches in college last year, and the Jaguars have a ton of production they need to replace. Unless Thomas ends up as the 2024 version of Quentin Johnson, he should work his way into at least 100 targets with touchdown upside.
It’s also really easy to build a late-round Jaguars stack with Thomas and quarterback Trevor Lawrence. If you need a capable second quarterback and a young receiver with a path to the job and upside, targeting both in the 9th and 10th rounds is realistic.
Are you looking for even more analysis and advice for the 2024 fantasy football season? Check out the Sports Gambling Podcast for weekly Best Ball drafts and fantasy football info. SGPN also has the Old Fashioned Football podcast and the NFL Gambling Podcast with weekly shows focused on 2024 fantasy football. Check out our shows and
