Everyone loves a DONG, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props (aka “Dudes Who Dong”) to play on July 12, 2024, across all MLB action. Also, if you’re reading this, I’ll drop Home Run Derby picks on Sunday on the MLB Gambling Pod.
“Hey, Yankees! You can take your apology and your trophy and shove it straight up your ass!” – Tanner Boyle, Bad News Bears
0-3 on props last week, so as usual, I will blame my kids. The Doctor of Dong is here, so let’s dive right into the last edition before the All-Star Break.
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Three Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – July 12, 2024
Alec Burleson (St. Louis Cardinals)
I openly discuss how a lot of this Cardinals lineup looks like cast-offs from a January 6 planning meeting. Three dudes in particular—Lance Lynn, Brendan Donovan, and Alec Burleson—I’m even convinced are the same dude just switching jerseys. But none of that matters today because Burley Burleson himself is going to send one over the wall and into the Capitol.
First, let me set the stage —Kyle Hendricks is going today for the Cubs. The Professor has gotten older, and he is showing it—he’s given up 11 hits in his last five innings pitched.
The days of dazzling hitters with his off-speed stuff are over, and instead, we find ourselves taking a guy who has a wOBA over .500 against Hendricks’ main pitch – a change-up.
If he throws him a sinker, that’s not going to go well either – Burleson hits .365 off those with four home runs. It’s just a brutally bad matchup for one of the 2016 Cubs darlings, and it’s topped off by Hendricks giving up 10 HRs on the road this season, and seven of them are to lefties. The graphic from our friends at Outlier.Bet says it all – Burleson vs RHPs = Good, Hendricks vs LHH = bad.
Burleson is also on a tear right now, with hits in nine of his last ten games. We’re taking his over total bases at +115 and his dong at +575 since he’s going to take Kyle Hendricks out back to the woodshed and then send a ball into a Saint Louis Bread Company window.
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases +115 MGM (risk 1u)
HR +575 MGM (risk .25u)
Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds)
Elly De La Cruz is Scott Reichel’s least favorite player. Now that I’ve slandered another member of the SGPN community let me tell you why he’s hitting one into a Graeter’s Ice Cream window.
Marlins starter Yonny Chirinos hemorrhages contact. The dude has given up at least 6 hits in nine of his last ten starts. He’s kept the ball in the park mostly in four starts this year, but I know who he really is – he’s the dude who gave up 15 dongs last year to opposing batters.
EDLC is hilarious when he bats against a lefty – luckily, that’s not happening today. He gets the right-handed Chirinos, and he has a .251 ISO against RHPs this year. He pulls the ball well, and Great American Ballpark is the best park in MLB for LHHs (which Elly will do against Yonny).
Elly just had a great series against mediocre Rockies pitchers, and I’d put Chirinos and his .317 BAA in that category. Need more? Chirinos loves to put the ball where Elly smashes it as our tall, fast friend has a wOBA over .370 against 3 of Yonny’s pitches (a .275 vs. the slider, which I can live with).
If you take a look at the heat map vs the Splitter (a pitch I’ve decided no one in MLB can hit well), you see that 1) Elly hits it well, and 2) he hits it EXACTLY where Yonny throws it. BAD NEWS FOR CHIRINOS.
We’re taking his total bases as a slight juice of -110 and his dong at +390 as Elly probably hits one inside the park and shows off by stealing home.
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases -110 MGM (to win 1u)
HR +390 Fan Duel (risk .25u)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr (Toronto Blue Jays)
This Blue Jays team is fun again—they’ve won four of their last five games and scored five runs in all those games. We love runs! It is washing away the pain of watching Joe Carter destroy my childhood. But I digress.
Look, Ryne Nelson stinks. He doesn’t fool me. I don’t care what his ‘under the hood’ stuff says. This dude has given up 10 bombs this year, and they’re listing him with a hit allowed prop of 5.5 heavily juiced to the over. That means they expect him to get shelled. Who better to handle that than the big guy himself – Vlad!
Vlad is hitting again – and thanks to Toradol, he has hits in 15 of his last 20 games and eight of his last ten vs. RHPs. He’s also -340 just to get a hit in this game, so he’s clearly going to do something (or disappoint EVERYONE, including his father, probably).
I had no desire to lay -130 for his total base prop, and given that the entire team is hitting and the total is high, I’ll take the over 2.5 hits, runs, and RBIs here at +100. He’s actually hit this in two of his last three games against the D-Backs.
With a number of dudes in this lineup hitting Nelson and his pitch types well, I am confident in an RBI or scoring situation for the big guy. It’s really not going to matter because he’s sending one into the desert night like the hero he is.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr o2.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs +100 DraftKings (risk 1U)
HR +470 FanDuel (risk .25u)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
I also like guys in the Orioles, Phillies, and Mets games, but right now, there’s bad weather, so I don’t want to make commitments until closer to first pitch. Until you read me again, good luck with your bets, and LET IT RIDE.