Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for July 3. Go here for MLB World Series odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for July 3. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – July 3
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
First Pitch – 6:40 pm EST
Progressive Field – Cleveland, Ohio
Broadcast – MLB TV
I’m well aware of how good the Guardians offense has been. They rank 5th in the league in runs per game. Despite that, I like the NRFI here and there are two main reasons why. The first is Erick Fedde. The veteran righty is likely not getting the credit he deserves for such a good season due to playing with the worst team in the league. His 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP will make him a attractive trade chip come the deadline and makes his an attractive target for this NRFI. He held three of his last four opponents to two runs or fewer with the Dodgers being the lone outlier.
The second reason is the Guardians in the first inning. Although their offense has been strong all year, it isn’t in every inning. They’re 18th in the league in first inning runs – ranking just behind the Mets. They also are only scoring in 28.9% of first innings, which put them 13th in the league.
On the other side, we need far less mental gymnastics to come around to thinking the White Sox won’t score. They’re scoring in just 18.4% of first innings (28th in the majors) and are dead last in run scoring. To make matters even harder for them, they’ll face Gavin Williams, who has held his opponents to one or fewer runs in three of his last four outings – granted those were last season. But I still think we saw enough positive to ride with him against this squad.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 3: No (-105)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
First Pitch – 7:20 pm EST
Truist Park – Atlanta, Georgia
Broadcast – MLB TV
You don’t have to look far down the list to find Chris Sale’s Cy Young odds. Most sportsbooks have his listed second, just behind the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler, with odds right around +350. While an NRFI is a sprint and not a marathon, there’s no reason to think that anyone will get to Sale early on Wednesday. His 2.79 ERA combined with the Giants ranking 27th in first inning runs, he should waltz to the end of the first inning.
The Braves offense was one of the most feared in the league last season, but with the injuries, they lack that same pop. With no Ronald Acuna or Michael Harris, they have fallen all the way to 15th in run scoring in the league. That’ll be helpful for Giants starter Jordan Hicks to bring home this NRFI. Hicks doesn’t need all that much help anyways, as the flamethrower has been solid for the Giants this season. He carries a 3.36 ERA into Wednesday’s action and showed an uptick in his swing and miss stuff last time out.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 3: No (-135)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI picks for July 3, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
