Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props (aka “Dudes Who Dong”) to play on July 2, 2024, across all MLB action.
“Pitchers got a big butt!” – Rookie of the Year
2-1 on props last week, including 1 dong (thank you, Mr Devers). We are continuing to roll, and the Doctor of Dong is here to make a house call…
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Three Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – July 2, 2024
Ryan McMahon (Colorado Rockies)
Ryan McMahon is probably the least-known “Dude Who Dongs” in the league. And it’s understandable, he plays on the Rockies and they stink. For example, did you know he is hitting over .300 vs lefties? And that he has no relation to Vince McMahon?
He actually might. I have no idea and didn’t bother to Google it. Let’s actually assume he is and that he’s going to body slam the stinkiest player in the game, Dallas Keuchel.
Keuchel REALLY stinks. Like – this dude won a Cy Young, and you’d have no idea. He has been a favorite to fade for bettors since he left the Astros and bounced around. He’s the new edition to the Brewers’ endless stream of pitchers they seem to have, and he was glorious (for us) in his first game.
4 IP, 5 ER, 2 HRs.
My goodness.
Anyways, he has seen Mr. McMahon before, but it was back in 2022. Nothing spectacular, so Dallas won’t suspect what’s about to happen. Keuchel throws a lot of crappy versions of pitches, but mostly sinkers and cutters.
Mr McMahon has a wOBA over .375 against both of them. Oh, and Keuchel is left-handed. Remember that “Chekov’s Gun” point I made two paragraphs back about McMahon vs lefties?
This is where it matters—the chart via Outlier.bet can help here, but TLDR, Keuchel is worse vs. lefties/McMahon is best vs. lefties. Lots of southpaw talk here, but it won’t matter when he sends one into a mountain.
We’re going to take his over 1.5 total bases at +115, which seems absurd given this matchup. McMahon has hits in nine of his last ten against lefties, but we’re even more excited about the likelihood of Brewers RP Jakob Junis coming in after Keuchel.
McMahon is 2 for 5 against this guy. He’s just ready to go off, and we’re going to bet his dough at +575 for him to make multiple pitchers cry today.
Ryan McMahon o1.5 Total Bases +114 Caesar’s (risk 1U)
HR +575 Caesar’s (to win .5u)
Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Guardians)
The man named J-Ram is hot, hot, hot right now, and the Guardians have the best record in MLB. WHAT?!?!?
Yes, that was a real sentence. Ramirez is leading the way on this Guardians team with a bunch of dudes no one has heard of in low-key one of the best cities in the US.
Ramirez has hits in 15 of his last 20 and has home runs in five of his last ten. Probably a sneaky MVP candidate if anyone had heard of him. Good news for us, we know him. And he gets to eat Chris Flexen today from the Chicago White Sox!
The former Doosan Bear (KBO real ones know!) is not good. He has a SIERA of 4.91 and an XFIP of 5.03. This means if you take out his teammates fielding the ball behind him – he still stinks.
The part we’ve keyed in on is the 13 home runs he’s given up – 9 of which have been to lefties. Lucky for us, J-Ram is a switch hitter but loves hitting lefty.
It really doesn’t matter which side Ramirez hits from. The total in this game is high, and we have 10 mph winds blowing to left field. It’s mashing weather. Also, while I wrote this, I just looked at Flexen’s stats vs. lefties again and drooled—the man has a HR per 9 of 2.83 vs. LHH.
That is so bad—bad enough that he should go back to the KBO. Not today, though. We need him for a proper Dinger Tuesday bet.
That’s right – this bet is also a Dinger Tuesday (a popular promotion on FanDuel where you get bonus bets for home runs hit today). You want his home run there (best price). We’re also not going to go with the total bases. Way too overpriced (cue the “they know” Twitter rant).
We’re taking his Hits, Runs, and RBIs over 2.5 at +100 on MGM and DK. He will drive someone in or just hit one into the sun and we cash immediately.
Jose Ramirez o2.5 Hits, Runs. RBIs +100 MGM (Risk 1U)
HR +320 FanDuel (risk .25u for Dinger Tuesday promo)
Nick Castellanos (Philadelphia Phillies)
Wait, didn’t we bet on this guy two weeks ago? Yeah, and he hit for us (RIP Donald Sutherland). I checked, and no one important has died lately except Shifty Shellshock from Crazy Town. Also—random—but did you know he used to date Punky Brewster? I digress.
It’s Nicky Bad News today, and the Phillies have had a lot of bad news lately. Everyone is hurt, and some dude named Mercado is starting. The good news for the Phils is that they have a date with the Cubs, a team that Castellanos has absolutely smashed over the years.
Forget that he already is 2 for 4 against Cubs starter Hayden Wesneski. Casty has 10 HRs in 45 games played against the Cubs. He even has a home run against Jorge Lopez, who might be so bad that he’s not even on the team anymore.
The key thing here is that we have the wind blowing aggressively to left field and a Phillies hitter who will swing at everything. He doesn’t care when you have a starter who has a HR/9 of 1.6 and six dongs to RHHs. He hasn’t even pitched enough games to do this, but the man has done it.
The total, again, is high here, and despite the absence of Harper and Schwarbs, the Phillies still have a lot of dudes who can mash a baseball. We’re going to take Casty’s total base prop of 1.5 at +120 and him to hit one into the Wiener’s Circle at +440.
He will do this while “Butterfly” plays in the background. It has been written. Also, make the Casty pick a Dinger Tuesday pick – great price on FanDuel, and there should be a lot of bombs.
Nick Castellanos o1.5 Total Bases +120 DraftKings (risk 1U)
HR +440 FanDuel (.25u for Dinger Tuesday promo)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
I could potentially do another writeup on Friday, but it’s the holiday week, so I cannot promise anything. Until you read me again, good luck with your bets, and LET IT RIDE.
