After a thrilling end to the group stage, the knockout rounds kick off this weekend, and SGPN previews the soccer action with our Euro 2024 Round of 16 best bets.
The first pair of matches start on Saturday before wrapping up the round on Tuesday. At this stage of the competition, all bets are settled after 90 minutes, regardless of whether there is overtime or penalty kicks.
Because of the seeding from the group stage, one side of the bracket includes France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium. The other quadrant gives England a clear path to the final or a long shot at making it.
This has been a thrilling tournament so far, and it should only get better with these matchups. So, let’s dive into the fixtures with our Euro 2024 Round of 16 best bets.
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Euro 2024 Round of 16 Best Bets
England vs. Slovakia – England Win to Nil (-106) FanDuel
Date: Sunday, June 30
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Network: FOX
Yes, I am going down with the ship here. I may be the last one still backing this England team, but I don’t see how Slovakia finds the back of the net here.
I can’t make an argument or a selling point about the Three Lions’ attack so far. However, this still has been the best defensive team in this tournament.
In the three group games, Gareth Southgate’s squad only gave up one goal. According to fotmob.com, England held opponents to just 1.2 expected goals and one big scoring chance.
Meanwhile, Slovakia has lost the expected-goals battle in every game. This is the same nation that averaged just 0.77 xG per 90 minutes.
Although the performances in the group stage weren’t great, I expect England to do enough here to beat a weak Slovakia team.
France vs. Belgium – France ML (-110) BetMGM
Date: Monday, July 1
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Network: FOX
This is the headliner matchup of the Round of 16, and I like how this sets up for a France team that has been here before.
We have seen this same French side sleep-walk through the group stage of other major tournaments. Les Bleus then turns it up in the knockout rounds to go on a long run.
Since 2016, Didier Deschamps has guided his team to the finals of the previous two World Cups and Euro 2016. He now gets his experienced roster against a Belgium team in turmoil.
After their last game, the Belgians were booed off the field by their fans. This prompted the country’s captain, Kevin de Bruyne, to pull the players away from the Belgium section instead of walking over for the ceremonial acknowledgment.
This all comes after internal fights between players in the locker room following a game at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, which resulted in multiple key stars calling it quits and not representing their country again.
France closed as the -170 favorite in the opener against Austria, and I think these odds have shifted too far here.
Austria vs Turkey – Over 2.5 (-110) DraftKings
Date: Tuesday, July 2
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Network: FOX
Goals have been a common theme in games involving either of these teams, and I believe that continues here in the Round of 16.
Starting with Turkey, this same bet would have cashed in every match in this tournament. The combined expected goals average in those fixtures was 3.333 xG per 90 minutes.
Meanwhile, Austria has also played in some high-scoring matches. At least three goals have been scored in two group games, while the xG average is over three per fixture.
You also don’t have to search too far back for a previous meeting between the two nations. The two played in a friendly back in March, which ended with seven goals.
Yes, a knockout-round game at the Euros will be more cagey than a friendly. However, these two managers both like to push for goals, and I think we should see them in this matchup.
Austria Stage of Elimination – Semifinals (+350) DraftKings
For our final Euro 2024 Round of 16 best bet, I’m going to switch it up by giving my favorite future now that the bracket is set.
I mentioned at the top of the article that this quadrant is one that you can attack from a longshot perspective, and Austria is the team I am backing to lose in a semifinal.
The Austrians’ first matchup of the knockout rounds is a Turkey team that they just beat in a friendly in March 6-1. I also like the advantage Austria has as manager behind Ralf Rangnick, whose attacking style should give Turkey fits.
Rangnick’s team will likely face the Netherlands again in the quarterfinals. This is another matchup in which Austria has the coaching advantage.
After winning the meeting in the group stage, it should only give the Austrians confidence that they can do it again. Make sure to play this form of the bet at +350 as opposed to Austria to advance to the semifinals at +220.