Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props (aka “Dudes Who Dong”) to play on June 21, 2024, across all MLB action.
“How can you not be romantic about baseball?” – “Moneyball”
I hope you’ve been tailing; we went 2-1 last week with two bombs (Thanks, Marcel and William!). We’re 4-1 in our last five dong calls. Oh, and we have a new name for this column – Dudes Who Dong. Rolls of the tongue, doesn’t it? Let’s jump in….
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Three Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – June 21, 2024
Nick Castellanos (Philadelphia Phillies)
Don’t worry, no one died – but we’re still taking the much-maligned Phillies outfielder to blast one into the Citizens Bank Park parking lot today. Actually, technically, someone did die. Donald Sutherland passed away, but I doubt anyone who reads this knows who that is (he was in the Buffy the Vampire Slayer movie and MASH). Rest in Peace. I digress…
Look, I get it—Casty hasn’t had a hit against the Diamondbacks since Game 1 of last year’s NLCS. But that only matters to people who live in the past. Also, that team stunk. This team is awesome. It’s very different.
Speaking of guys who stink, the Snakes are sending lefty Jordan Montgomery to the mound. He stinks. His ERA is 5+ on the road, and the dude is giving up a slugging percentage of .538 to righties. Not only that, but his main pitch is the worst pitch you could possibly throw to this Phillies team – a sinker ball. Please note the chart from Outlier.Bet:
Casty has hit 6 of his 9 HRs this year off lefties, and all of his power metrics go up against southpaws – especially his hard hit rate, which jumps from 33% to 43.6%. Oh yeah, and he’s 2 for 3 off Monty – who will be too busy worrying about not letting Bryce Harper send one to Mars to focus on getting Casty out? Plus, the wind is blowing to the left-center at 10 mph tomorrow. A ball is as good as gone.
We’re going to take his o1.5 bases at -120. A little juice but we all know he’s smacking a double in his first at bat. The dude holds grudges. Plus Liam (his son) is out of school so might be at the game. That calls for hitting one to Mars.
Nick Castellanos o1.5 Total Bases -105 FanDuel (to win 1U)
HR +470 FanDuel (to win .5u)
Tyler O’Neill (Boston Red Sox)
The Red Sox, as a whole, mash lefties – they have the 9th-best OPS vs LHP this season and 6th-best since June 1st. It’s not just our guy DEEEEEVVVVVERS either, it’s the Canadian Thunder (no idea if that’s his nickname) Tyler O’Neill. He hits lefties to a .345 clip. Plus, have you seen this dude? He once hit a home run to beat the Giants and ripped his jersey off. The dude is carrying unlicensed firearms – GUNS!
Reds starter Andrew Abbott stinks. Don’t let his ERA of 3.42 fool you. This dude has given up 13 dongs this season, and 12 of them are to righties (part of why we’re skipping Rafael here). If his name looks familiar, it’s because it is – we faded him last week, too, when William “MVP” Contreras sent one to a Wisconsin Beer Bar. But back to Andrew.
He mostly throws fastballs, which O’Neill carries a wOBA of .395 against. Changeups? O’Neill has a run value of +2 against those bad boys. Sliders? A .448 slugging percentage. It’s really the fastball Lefty vs Righty matchup we’re after. Especially since Great American Ballpark is the 3rd best ballpark for home runs from righties (don’t believe me? It’s right here).
We’re going to take O’Neill’s total base prop and add in his HR at +300 since he’s going to drop one into a bowl of Skyline Chili.
Tyler O’Neill o1.5 Total Bases 105 MGM (Risk 1U)
HR +300 FanDuel (to win .5u)
Corey Seager (Texas Rangers)
The Rangers have been mid this year. Shout out, Cameron Kerr, sorry – your team is mid. But they also have one of my favorite studs in MLB – Corey Seager. A dude who had f’n core muscle surgery in February and was like, “Yeah, I’ll be fine to swing a bat soon,” and backed it up. At one point, the former Dodger had 8 in 8 games. And now he gets Brady Singer.
Singer is the very definition of mid. This dude has a hard-hit rate of over 40% on the road and lets left-handed hitters rent a condo in his head for FREE (they bat near .300 on the season and over .400 against him on the road).
He does throw sliders, which Seager hates (albeit, he throws them in the area Corey loves, see chart below via Outlier), but he’s also got a sinker, which Seager mashes to the moon (hits .350 off those babies). Seager also already has a hit off him this season, so you know Brady is going to be pitching scared.
Seager is in a little bit of a slump right now. I get it. But this is where he breaks out. He’s watching Mr June – Kyle Schwarber mash baseballs and he’s thinking “That could be me”. He also absolutely murders most of the guys in this Royals bullpen, all of which are mid.
The Royals were nice enough to play yesterday and used their high-leverage guys, leaving Nick Anderson and Will Smith available to likely pitch today. Seager has a bomb off Will Smith and a hit off Anderson. I think we’re set up for success in this entire game, boys.
Seager is going to go over his total base prop of 1.5 and hit one into a jukebox in an Arlington, TX bar while some guy uses $5 to play Bob Seger’s “Night Moves” on repeat. Trust me.
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases +105 MGM (risk 1U)
HR +350 FanDuel (to win .5u)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here
I’ll see you guys next week to count the winnings, but for now, enjoy these home run props for today, June 21, and LET IT RIDE.
