The 3rd Saturday in May is Preakness Stakes Day at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, Maryland. The second jewel of the Triple Crown takes place over 1 mile and 3/16 and was first run in 1873. Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby at 16/1 two weeks ago. He lines up here in a bid to take his Triple Crown challenge to Belmont Park on June 8. Here are my 2024 Preakness Stakes analysis and picks!
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2024 Preakness Stakes Analysis and Picks
Track and Trip
The 9.5-furlong trip is on the dirt course around two turns, similar to the Kentucky Derby, albeit over a slightly shorter trip. A field of only nine runners means that post-draw will be largely unimportant and should nullify any luck needed in the running, although seven of the last nine winners have been drawn on the inner half of the field. Tactical speed is an asset, as is normal in North American racing. It tends to be a benefit to be towards the front early. Pimlico is a relatively tight track, and races can be stolen from the front.
Historically, horses that ran in the Derby dominated the Preakness as they re-engaged in battle. However, as horse workloads have been managed, trainers are choosing to skip the hustle and bustle of the Churchill Downs race, opting to introduce their classic hopes here instead. Only three Derby runners take their chance in this.
The Contenders
Muth – 5/4
Muth won the Arkansas Derby, with Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, and also ran Just Steel behind in the field. As a result of that, his position here as a favorite is justified. The horse was unable to line up in Kentucky due to the ban imposed on trainer Bob Baffert.
Had Muth been able to run, I think he’d have been close to a favorite in the market and looks primed to take all of the beating here. The manner of the Oaklawn Park win looks like it will translate well to Pimlico. Just Steel wasn’t miles behind that day and Mystik Dan ran a muddling race, so I’m not sure this short price is for me.
Mystik Dan – 9/2
There are a couple of schools of thought on how the Kentucky hero should be judged on that win. In the plus column, Mystik Dan laid up with the quick early pace. He was the only one of the front runners not to collapse out of it. Negatively, he had a dream run through the race.
Brian Hernandez hit all of his holes, and the horse’s nose was down when it mattered at the line. The form of Derby winners in the Preakness is strong but is getting diluted as more and more trainers bring a fresh horse to compete. I want to take him on.
Catching Freedom – 6/1
He got to within 2 lengths of Mystik Dan in the Derby, albeit with a favorable passage. He is caught somewhat in no man’s land here, as we’ve seen him beaten by re-opposing horses, and also, the quick turnaround can be a negative. However, Ken McPeek is shrewd and does not often run his inmates on two weeks’ rest.
In fact, he’s only done it 21 times in the last five years, with seven of those winning and 13 placed. Those numbers raise an eyebrow, and while I’m not making him my selection, it would be no surprise to see him go close in the Preakness.
Imagination – 13/2
Another Baffert horse. He was the favorite for the Santa Anita Derby, finishing second to Stronghold whilst showing a battling attitude. Stronghold ran okay in the Derby, not damaging Imagination’s chances, fading off the fast pace at the final turn. Clockers have been talking positively about his workouts.
Frankie Dettori takes the ride and will almost certainly go to the front. As a British racing fan of generations, I’ve seen Frankie set the fractions more times than you can shake a stick at. He’s one of the greatest ever to do it. A fast pace and rail ride can provide winners. I like the profile of this one.
Tuscan Gold – 13/2
Tuscan Gold is less exposed than some of these. Trainer Chad Brown does a good job with horses that skip the Derby and go straight to the Preakness. Tuscan Gold broke his maiden at Gulfstream with ease and ran ok in the Louisiana Derby. He’s another that will be up with the early speed and is intriguing. Chance.
Just Steel – 16/1
Just Steel bombed in the Derby but has excuses. After a rough start, he was one of those who was right on the fast pace and suffered because of it as the field turned for home. It’s not unheard of for horses to bounce back in the Preakness. After a performance like that, and Just Steel will no doubt try to do it from the front here in more favorable circumstances. Don’t rule him out.
Seize The Grey – 20/1
A second D Wayne Lukas trained horse. Seize the Grey actually won on Kentucky Derby day, taking the Pat Day Mile. That wasn’t a bad run, similar to Mystik Dan’s, in fact, in the Derby, where although he was close to the breakneck pace, he followed through with his effort. As far as 20/1 shots go, you’ll bet much worse in your life than this.
Uncle Heavy – 25/1
Not a traditional route to a Classic for this horse. Uncle Heavy started at the less fashionable tracks to win at Aqueduct in the G3 Withers. He got no sort of run in the Wood Memorial and comes to the Preakness with a lot to prove. His breeding suggests he’ll prefer a shorter trip, too.
Mugatu – 100/1
A rank outsider and deservedly so. Mugatu was on the reserve list at Churchill Downs but didn’t get a chance to run, so the owners can have their big day out here. Outclassed on all known forms, and I shall not be getting involved.
Selections
The key to the race is who gets to the front and how quickly they go when they get there. I love Frankie Dettori setting the fractions, which he’ll do here on Imagination. However, I can see at least one other, Tuscan Gold, pestering for the lead here. I’d prefer to bet something just tucked in behind the pace.
Muth should run his race. He has ticked a lot of boxes, but I think the price is too short, and there will be value elsewhere.
I liked the chances of Just Steel coming into the Derby. Nothing he did that day has put me off too much. If he can sit handy enough to the pace without cutting his throat, we should see him in a better light. I think Joel Rosario can coax him into the race down the stretch.
Seize the Grey produced a really likable effort on Derby Day. He should be able to reproduce that running style in the Preakness. He’ll be boxing on as they turn for him, and I loved the way he put his head down at Pimlico that day. Let’s give him a chance.
Win/Place/Show: 6 Seize the Grey
Win/Place/Show: 7 Just Steel
Boxed Exacta: 4 6 7
Good Luck!!
