The world is one week away from the second major championship of 2024. But first, a stacked field will get a very proper warm up for the PGA Championship with the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC. As always, here is your early preview of the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship and a preview of how to bet.
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2024 Wells Fargo Championship Preview
The Golf Course
While the Wells Fargo Championship is a fairly young event on the PGA Tour, Quail Hollow’s history of hosting professional golf tournaments is much older than that. Quail Hollow is a private country club first built in 1959 by George Cobb. Cobb has done hundreds of original and renovation designs, with his most famous being renovation work on East Lake, Timuquana, and the 9th hole at Augusta National. Cobb also designed the original Par 3 course at Augusta National.
The club played host to the Kemper Open from 1969 to 1979 before the event moved north to Maryland as the Booz Allen Classic. The course underwent a series of changes from its original design, beginning with alterations by Arnold Palmer in 1986. Tom Fazio did further renovations in 1997, 2003, and 2016 in preparation for the PGA Championship.
The latest redesign of the golf course in 2016 mostly affected the front nine. Hole No. 1 was lengthened by about 100 yards and took over the former No. 2 green. The former Hole No. 3 became the 2nd hole. The renovation of the 1st also changed the desired shot off the tee. A power fade (for a righty) through the dog leg and away from the trio of fairway bunkers is now the ideal ball flight. The hole now plays as a difficult 524-yard Par 4. It played as the 5th hardest hole on the golf course in 2019.
Before
After
Additionally, the club cut down huge swaths of trees to create a new Par 3 4th. The tee box on No. 5 was also moved up to eliminate a Par 5 from the scorecard to make the course a Par 71. Though there weren’t many total yards added to the scorecard, a 7,600-yard course plays a little harder as a Par 71 than a Par 72.
The most famous stretch at Quail Hollow is the final three holes, which are aptly nicknamed The Green Mile. Many players feel like they are on a death march through it, and many more see their chances of winning at Quail Hollow come to an unfortunate, swift, and cruel end.
The Green Mile
The golfers enter The Green Mile with the tough 506-yard Par 4 16th. Off the bat, there presents a conundrum off the tee. The safe tee shot is a draw away from the fairway bunker 300 yards away. However, anything down the left side of the fairway brings the water into play. Kevin Kisner, unfortunately, hit it into the water on his approach shot in the third round of the 2017 PGA Championship while leading the tournament.
The 223-yard Par 3 17th offers little respite for the players. The tee shot requires a forced carry 210 yards over a water hazard and a large bunker in front of the green. During the final round of the PGA Championship, almost no one was able to get the ball close to the hole. Justin Thomas, however, stuffed his tee shot to 10 feet and drained the birdie on his way to his first major title.
The final hole at Quail Hollow is a difficult 494-yard Par 4 with a creek winding all the way down the left side of the hole. Those who wish to avoid the creek off the tee will also have to contend with a deep fairway bunker 300 yards away. There is also a thick pocket of trees down the right side of the hole. A long and accurate tee shot on this hole is paramount. Those who hit into trouble down the right side need to take their medicine and punch back out to the fairway.
Jason Day, however, ignored this advice:
Here are the slight alterations to the course:
Overall, Quail Hollow Club is a big boy golf course. At just under 7,600 yards long, it is very demanding tee-to-green. The best players in the world are in for a mighty test this weekend.
Betting Strategies
To begin the betting strategies for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship, here is general information about the Quail Hollow Club.
Yardage: 7,558 Yards
- Quail Hollow plays as the fourth largest non-major golf course on the PGA Tour this season.
Par: 71
- While the 1st hole plays as a Par 5 for members, it will play as a long Par 4 for the PGA Tour.
Fairway Width: ~30-35 yards wide
Average Green Size: ~6,600 sq. feet
- The greens at Quail Hollow play larger than the average PGA Tour venue. And with several greens flattened out in 2023, they’ll play bigger than they did in prior years.
Agronomy:
- Tees/Fairways/Approaches: Perennial Ryegrass Overseed
- Rough: Perennial Ryegrass Overseed – 2″
- Greens: Poa Trivialis Overseed – 12 Stimpmeter
May has brought out warmer weather for the Charlotte area. As such, the bermuda is beginning to emerge from dormancy. Per the GCSAA, the greens and fairways are about a 50/50 mix of the poa trivialis overseed and the emerging underlying bermuda. As such, it might be useful to favor better bermuda putters as the greens may behave more closely to those this week.
Past Champions:
Here are the last five champions at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, with their winning score and estimated pre-tournament closing odds:
- 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19), 70/1
- 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10), 16/1
- 2019: Max Homa (-15), 300/1
- 2018: Jason Day (-12), 20/1
- 2016: James Hahn (-9), 250/1
In retrospect, the last four champions at Quail Hollow are not surprising. All of them are among the cream of the PGA Tour stars.
However, Wyndham Clark and Max Homa were surprises when they won. While Wyndham Clark was playing well heading into the tournament, his victory at Quail Hollow was his true coming-out party (and a foreshadowing of his win at the U.S. Open a month later). And as for Max Homa, his win was completely out of nowhere, as evidenced by his pre-tournament odds of 300/1.
The commonality between all four of these players is that they’re elite drivers (at least at the time of victory). All of them are very long off the tee and do most of their damage in the strokes gained category off-the-tee. Quail Hollow is a very driver-heavy golf course and features some of the longest average drives on the PGA Tour. These players love hitting driver often.
And all of them (at least at the time) were very good long iron players. As shown below, there is a significantly higher concentration of approach shots from nearly every 25-yard proximity bucket over 150 yards. Given their strengths in this area, Quail Hollow was a great fit for them to grab a victory.
Average Scoring (at Quail Hollow):
- 2023: +0.12
- 2021: +1.19
- 2019: +0.57
- 2018: +0.92
Quail Hollow annually is one of the tougher PGA Tour venues. Of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015 (including major venues), it features the 25th toughest scoring conditions.
Given its layout, it makes sense. Quail Hollow is one of the longer golf courses on the PGA Tour. In addition, the greens featured some significant undulation to it. There are a few water hazards lurking on a few key (and difficult) approach shots). There have been several Wells Fargo Championships at Quail Hollow that have featured windy and firm conditions to amp up the difficulty.
However, the scoring average at Quail Hollow at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship was the easiest since the 2016 renovation. Making the tournament an elevated event that features the best players on the PGA Tour is a contributing factor. However, temperatures were warm. There wasn’t a lot of wind. And it’s possible that advancements in technology (specifically with the driver) has neutered the golf course.
Annually, Quail Hollow’s toughest areas are its approach shots and putting. It is the 27th toughest with approach shots and the 14th toughest with putting. This is directly attributed to the greens, which feature some significant sloping—that’s typical for most Tom Fazio greens.
However, will the softening of the greens this year (which, in effect, makes the greens play larger) make it easier to play in these areas? Less undulation to the putting surfaces makes it easier to putt from long distance and gives players a little bigger target to hit on approach shots, specifically from long range. It will be interesting to perform an autopsy of this event with respect to how improved iron and putting are this week.
Predictive Skillsets
Here is the relative skillset chart of the characteristics that are most predictive of success at Quail Hollow Club (per DataGolf). This chart previews the types of players one would expect to do well at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.
The most blatant reveal from the predictive skillset chart is the higher correlation between longer players and success at Quail Hollow. Given how driver-heavy the golf course is and how length allows one to cut off dog legs or carry certain bunkers, this is not a surprise. Bettors, at the very least, should break ties between players based on length off the tee.
Ability around the green is also less correlated with success at Quail Hollow. While the lower-than-average green in regulation rates at Quail Hollow make getting up and down important in the tournament, it’s historically not as useful as a predictive skillset.
Approach Shot Proximity
Here are the approach shot proximity buckets for Quail Hollow Club (per DataGolf) from 2023. This will preview what types of approach shots players are expected to hit at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship:
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As referenced earlier, Quail Hollow features a higher concentration of shots from over 150 yards than the typical PGA Tour venue. In addition, only about 25% of all approach shots at Quail Hollow come from inside 150 yards. And almost 60% of approach shots come from between 150-225 yards. As such, bettors should focus on mid to long approach shot ability as a key to handicapping the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.
