Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props to play today, May 1, across all MLB action.
“You guys talkin’ about Kelly Leak? That dude is a bad mother. You talk about a loan shark. I borrowed a nickel from him last week. He said if I didn’t give him a dime by Friday, he’d break my arm.” – “Bad News Bears”
We went 0-2 last week. I don’t know who to blame so I’ll just blame Joel Embiid. Perfect time for a bounce back.
Let’s get into the HR picks and the accompanying prop for each:
CHECK OUT EVEN MORE MLB ACTION ON OUR FREE PICKS PAGE
Three Players Hitting Home Runs Today: Home Run Props – May 1, 2024
2024 Season Record:
7-12 Overall (2-10 on HRs)
+.4 units
CJ Abrams (Washington Nationals)
Washington Nationals fans haven’t had much to cheer for since their 2019 World Series win, but CJ Abrams has been a bright spot on this team since coming over from the Padres, and this season, he’s truly blossomed into a top-tier star.
With an ISO of .324 and a wRC+ of 170 (both of those are nerd stats for the uninitiated), Abrams has absolutely become a unit at the plate. And guess what he’s really good at? Smoking lefties. He’s batting .406 against them this year with an OPS of 1.316. Guess who’s starting tomorrow for the Rangers? A lefty! Andrew Heaney.
Heaney might stink. I say “might” because he has crazy home/road splits. His ERA at home is 9.31, but away from Arlington, it’s 4.05. In a limited sample size (and trust me, it’s limited—it’s 4 batters), lefties are batting .667 against him this season. Lefties were his weak spot last year, too, as he performed worse against them than righties.
By the way, CJ Abrams is a lefty, if you haven’t figured out where we were going with that. Abrams is 1 for 2 lifetime against Heaney. It’s a small sample size, but if the internet has taught us anything, it’s that we take limited information and run with it as truth. Either way, he’s been killing lefties and has at least a hit in eight straight games versus LHP, as seen in an image from Outlier below.Bet.
We’re going to take his HRR at -135. Slightly juicy, yes, but Heaney’s walk rate soars to 20% versus lefties, and I’d rather not risk losing a hit because of a free pass. Plus, CJ is pretty likely to steal second and get into scoring position right away. None of this matters since he’s going to cash the bet by sending one to Mars.
CJ Abrams o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs -135 BetMGM (to win 1U)
HR +550 DraftKings (.1u risk)
Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds)
Elly De La Cruz is ELECTRIC. The base-stealing, home-run-crushing son-of-a-gun has blown up this season to the tune of MVP chants from the masses. Rightfully so, as he’s got 8 HRs to go with 18 steals, and we’re only one month into the season.
His ability to switch hit is a benefit here, as he goes against Joe Musgrove who – frankly – stinks against both types of batters but really stinks against LHBs. Elly hits .308 with an OPS of 1.116 against RHP, and Musgrove at home has been especially bad against LHBs (they hit .342 against him).
Remember when this dude threw a no-hitter? That feels like forever ago. Anyways, he stinks now. And Elly’s wRC+ jumps to nearly 200 when he goes against righties. This is a disaster matchup for Java Joe (I have no idea if people call him that).
I could bore you with more stats and tell you that Elly has an absurd run value of 7 against four-seam fastballs (Musgroves’ main pitch), but I won’t. Instead, I’ll just share this video of him effectively retiring Noah Syndergaard with a home run that hasn’t even landed yet.
Jumping back on the HRR here (at a sensible -110). Musgrove stinks. This entire Reds lineup should eat him alive. EDLC is going to send one into the Pacific Ocean.
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs -110 DraftKings (to win 1U)
HR +525 BetMGM (.1u risk
Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins)
Who the hell is this guy, and why does he have a hockey player name? Trevor Larnach is a Minnesota Twins outfielder who has had some injury history, so you probably haven’t heard of him. He’s bounced back and forth between the major leagues and minors, but he’s here now – and the dude MASHES. He’s hitting .379 in nine games and absolutely obliterates RHP:
9 hits in 25 ABs and 2 HRs. An OPS of 1.113. A wRC+ of 217 to go with a K rate above 20% (lol) – this guy is a classic “Dinger” guy.
He’s going against the White Sox’ Chris Flexen – who is really bad in Chicago (he probably just hates it there). His ERA is 7.50 at home vs 2.84 on the road. Oh, and lefties are hitting .438 off of him. Our boy Trevor is a lefty.
We aren’t messing around – we’re taking his HRR as he’s cashed it in seven of his last ten games and five straight. Plus, the Twins are in the top fve in most hitting categories (OPS, Average, wRC+, ISO) against RHP in the last three weeks. He’s going to get one of his teammates in, or he’s going to score, or he’s going to hit one from the South Side of Chicago to the North Side – that’s how good he is—that or to the moon.
Trevor Larnach o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs -120 BetMGM (to win 1U)
HR +300 BetMGM (.15u risk)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here: https://lnk.bet/t/f250mAWP
We’ll be back with more later on, but for now, enjoy these home run props for today, May 1, AND LET IT RIDE!