Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors love home run props. Here are two home run props to play today, April 23, across all MLB action.
We’ve gone two straight articles without any dongs, but we’re still profitable so that’s really all that matters, right? Well, wrong. All that matters is the home runs. That was a test, and if you said, “It’s fine,” then you failed. Let’s get into the HR picks and the accompanying prop for each:
CHECK OUT EVEN MORE MLB ACTION ON OUR FREE PICKS PAGE
Two Players Hitting Bombs Today: Home Run Props for April 23, 2024
2024 Season Record:
7-8 Overall (2-8 on HRs)
+3.2 units
Vinnie Pasquantino (Kansas City Royals)
The Italian Stallion is hot right now, with hits in 11 of his last 12 games and 15 of his last 20. He just went 0-4 against the Jays but had a 101 mph flyout that went 360 feet.
His splits against RHP this season are nasty, too—he leads the team in walk rate vs. RHP, lowest K rate, 2nd highest ISO, and 3rd highest wRC+ at 167 (which is pretty impressive). He had a slow start to the season, so his overall averages are down, but his wRC+ jumps 20 points when he faces righties.
He’ll be going against Blue Jays’s RHP Yariel Rodriguez – a rookie who has been solid in limited time this season. Despite only facing 22 batters thus far, he’s been worse against lefties, and his hard hit rate is 50% with an 18% barrel rate – that’s bad. He throws two main pitches – a 4-seam (Vinnie hits .292 off those) and a slider (Vinnie hits .333 off those). Both of the HRs that Rodriguez has given up this season came off his slider.
Lucky for us, other Royals hit sliders well, too (Sal Perez and MJ Melendez). One of the main reasons we like Vinnie P is that despite being a lefty, he’s hitting .313 off LHP this season. This means we don’t have to worry late in the game about a lefty-on-lefty situation. We love a guy who is matchup-proof on pitching and is already hitting.
We’re going to take his HRR prop over 1.5 since the walk rate is high, and we can hopefully either cash this via his own RBI or Sal or someone behind him. It’s really not going to matter since he’s hitting a ball to Mars.
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs -125 BetMGM (to win 1u)
HR +725 MGM (.1u risk)
Jordan Westburg (Baltimore Orioles)
There are other people on this Orioles team not named Adley or Gunnar. Enter: Jordan Westburg
Westy is hitting .300 against LHP this season, which is actually worse than the .327 he’s hitting against RHP. As I mentioned in the Vinnie P write-up, we love a dude who can hit both right and left-handed pitchers because it prevents a matchup issue later in the game.
Tyler Anderson has an ERA of 1.42 but an xFIP of 4.68 (that means he’s not as good as he looks). He’s still giving up a 14% barrel rate and a hard-hit rate of 35%. He’s given up three HRs this year. When people hit him, they take him deep. He also hasn’t exactly gone against a murder’s row of teams – the Marlins, the Red Sox, the Rays.
He did pitch against the Reds, but that team leads the league in strikeouts. This Orioles team leads the majors in hard-hit rate and can hurt you in every lineup position.
To add more evidence of a Westy day, the dude has a wOBA of .373 or higher against all of Anderson’s pitches, including an absurd .625 vs. cutters. We haven’t even mentioned that he has had hits in 10 of his last 11 games, and in 5 of those games, he had 2+ hits.
We’re going to take the HRR here again; a little juicy at -130, but with Westburg likely batting 5th (that’s been his spot vs. LHP), and the Orioles in front of him (Mountcastle and Adley) both crush lefties, so they should be on base.
With Tyler Anderson also having a propensity for walks (9.2% BB rate that spikes to 16% against lefties – two of whom bat ahead of Westburg), let’s bet on our guy to take advantage of baserunners or make it easy and hit one to Disney Land.
Jordan Westburg o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs -130 DraftKings (risk 1U)
HR +350 FanDuel (.14u risk)
Your handy dandy link to add all these to your bet slip via Outlier.Bet is here: https://lnk.bet/t/Qy29To
We’ll be back with more later on, but for now, enjoy these home run props for today, April 24. AND LET IT RIDE!