NASCAR heads to Dover, Delaware, this week to take on the “Monster Mile.” The 1.03-mile concrete oval lives up to its nickname by chewing up tires and spitting out cars. Banked at 24 degrees in the turns and nine degrees on the straightaway, it’s 400 laps of high-speed racing. Let’s take a look at the Würth 400 picks, best bets, and odds.
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NASCAR Würth 400 at Dover Odds, Picks and Best Bets
Last week, it was chaos that reigned supreme at the end of the race, leaving a lot of torn-up cars, and ruining some of our bets (McDowell 40/1 was painful)! Tyler Reddick came out on top with his first win of the 2024 season, with car owner Michael Jordan there to celebrate.
Erik Jones was involved in an earlier wreck when three Toyotas got out of shape trying to draft, sending Jones’ car into the wall on a vicious hit. Jones has a compression fracture in his back and is out indefinitely. Jones said the team will reevaluate week to week, but Jones will not be in the car at Dover. Truck series regular Corey Heim is the team’s contracted replacement driver and will fill in in Jones’ absence.
Erik Jones’ brutal crash @ Talladega, 2024. pic.twitter.com/l19VIMhKZQ
— Andrew (@Basso488) April 22, 2024
NASCAR Würth 400 at Dover Odds
Kyle Larson +475
Martin Truex Jr +700
Denny Hamlin +700
William Byron +700
Ross Chastain +700
Christopher Bell +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Chase Elliott +1400
Ty Gibbs +1400
Joey Logano +1800
Alex Bowman +1800
Tyler Reddick +1800
Brad Keselowski +2000
Kyle Busch +2000
Chris Buescher +2000
Bubba Wallace +3000
Chase Briscoe +3000
Josh Berry +6000
Noah Gragson +8000
Ryan Preece +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Austin Dillion +10000
Carson Hocevar +10000
Ricky Stenhouse +10000
Michael McDowell +10000
John Hunter Nemechek +10000
Jimmie Johnson +10000
Corey Heim +10000
Todd Gilliland +25000
Austin Cindric +25000
Justin Haley +25000
Corey Lajoie +25000
Zane Smith +25000
AJ Allmendinger +25000
Harrison Burton +50000
Daniel Hemric +100000
Kaz Grala +100000
Alex Bowman Top 10 Finish (-110)
When the odds for Dover dropped, Bowman was the first driver I was interested in looking at. -110 is a great number on Bowman this week. Alex Bowman has continued to be a solid driver at Dover. He missed last year’s race due to his own back injury, but Josh Berry was still able to score a top 10 in this car.
In 2022, Bowman finished fifth at Dover. In 2021, Bowman took the 48 car that Jimmie Johnson won 11 cup races at Dover into victory lane after leading 98 laps. Bowman has been top five in four of his last five races here.
An underrated part of Alex Bowman’s 2024 campaign, he’s already finished in the top five four times in 10 races. Combine those finishes with one of his best tracks, and this top 10 bet becomes one of my favorite Dover picks.
Ty Gibbs Over Ryan Blaney (-110)
Ryan Blaney managed to score a third-place finish last season at Dover, but before that, his results haven’t been good here. Blaney only has three top-10 finishes in 13 career starts at the Monster Mile and hadn’t scored a top-10 since 2018 before last season.
Over the last six races, Blaney has only one top-10 finish as the Ford drivers struggle to keep up. In those six races, Ty Gibbs has come out ahead of Blaney four times.
Gibbs’ results over the last four races have slowed down after the second-year Cup Series driver started the season on fire. That doesn’t worry me much, as Ty races for Joe Gibbs Racing who consistently has some of the fastest cars week in and week out.
Gibbs was running fifth late in last season’s race before a fuel issue forced him to settle for a 13th-place finish in his only career start at the track. The speed Gibbs, the driver, and the team have shown this season gives me a lot more faith going into this weekend.
Martin Truex Jr Top 5 Finish (+100)
Martin Truex Jr is one of the best at Dover. He’s the defending race winner from last season, and his finishes speak for themself. In the last seven races at Dover, Martin Truex Jr has finished inside of the top two five times. Top two, five times. Yet you are getting him at even money here. Don’t overthink this bet, and grab some Truex to win at 7/1 while you are at it.
In 5 of the last 7 Dover races, Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top TWO!
The two outliers are both asterisk mark results.
2022 = 12th. Ross Chastain just had to wreck him on the last lap battling for 3rd.
2021 = 19th. Pole, led the opening 16 laps. During the lap 35…
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) April 22, 2024
Chase Elliott to Win (+1400)
How Elliott is 14/1 over on BetMGM, I’m not sure, but get this line as early in the week as you can. Elliott is another driver who is great at Dover. His teammate Kyle Larson is the favorite to win at +475. Elliott is coming off snapping his 42-race winless streak at Texas just two weeks ago.
Elliott is the other NextGen driver to win at Dover. He won this race in 2022, his second win at the track. In 13 starts at Dover, Chase has finished inside the top three six times. Before last week’s Superspeedway race, Elliott had a streak of three straight top-five finishes. At one of his better tracks, he should be in the mix at the end of the day on Sunday.
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