NFL Draft Prop Bets & Analysis

NFL Draft Prop Bets & Analysis

We are just under two weeks before the NFL Draft, and the props have started to flood the market. Unlike last year, there is minimal debate about who is going number one. The intrigue of the draft begins at number two with the Washington Commanders. NFL Draft markets can be difficult to handicap. Here are my NFL Draft Prop Bets!

It is important to not rely solely on what you THINK a team will do. There are all types of variables that go into a team making a draft pick. One trade can ruin your thoughts on what that specific team will do, so be careful.

Below are six of my favorite NFL Draft Prop Bets that are widely available. Please be sure to shop around if you like the analysis and want to wager. It is critical you get the best odds available as these markets vary drastically from book to book.

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NFL Draft Prop Bets & Analysis

Position of San Francisco 49ers First Drafted Player: Offensive Lineman (-110)

This is my favorite bet of the draft. When you dissect the roster, we can pretty much draw a line through all of the skill positions. There had been some noise surrounding Brandon Aiyuk’s desire to be traded, but those talks have died down as we progressed through the months.

Even if they wanted to move on from Aiyuk, I do not think they would spend a pick on a receiver this early. This is a deep class of pass catchers, and they can find an ancillary piece in the later rounds.

Trent Williams is ageless and still is performing at a high level. Getting some depth behind him and some competition for Colton McKivitz on the right side makes a lot of sense.

John Lynch and offensive line coach Chris Foerster attended the Washington Huskies spring game this past week. It just so happened that offensive lineman Roger Rosengarten was set to work out afterward.

The signs are there, and even if it is not Rosengarten, the 49ers could be looking at Houston’s Patrick Paul. In nearly 500 snaps, Paul surrendered only one sack and 9 pressures. Either pick would help bolster a unit that allowed nearly a 20% pressure rate on dropbacks last year.

Position of Philadelphia Eagles First Drafted Player: Cornerback (+140)

The Eagles’ disaster ending came at the hands of Baker Mayfield and his 337 passing yards. They surrendered 55 or more yards to three different receivers in their playoff loss to Tampa. They were 31st in passing yards allowed and struggled to get teams off the field in third and medium.

The regression of Bradberry and the injury concerns with Slay all should point to the Eagles getting help in the secondary. Slay missed the final four games of the regular season with a knee injury but came back in the playoffs, and it looked bad.

We are going against some history here, with the Eagles not having drafted a corner since 2002. This is a strong corner class, and the Eagles will likely have their shot at the top guy in this class, depending on who they prefer.

Total Number of Quarterbacks Drafted in Round 1: UNDER 4.5 (+160)

Every year, we obsess over the quarterback position. Rightfully so when it is the most important position. In this draft, there are only four quarterbacks with first-round grades. We will get three off the board immediately: Williams, Daniels, and Maye. Following those will likely be JJ McCarthy, but then it gets interesting.

Essentially, we are betting on Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr going in the first round, and I like the odds of neither of those happening. After the first three picks, there are three teams who need a quarterback. One of those teams is likely to take JJ McCarthy, which leaves us with two teams and two quarterbacks.

I do not think Penix’s medicals will be good enough to warrant his being drafted in the first round. A lot of people think Nix to Denver at 12 makes sense, but to me, a cornerback is the better choice. I have not read or heard any prominent source say they have a first-round grade on Nix, which tells me the Broncos likely don’t either.

They would be reaching by drafting Nix, who is likely to sit behind Stitham anyway. So why waste the pick when you will likely be in a position for a better prospect in 2025? In a division loaded with elite quarterbacks and above-average pass catchers, I think a corner opposite Pat Surtain is the only option.

Number 3 Overall Pick: Drake Maye (-125)

It can be debated that no other quarterback has been scrutinized more than Maye. After a phenomenal first year as a starter, he did not have the same impact last year, especially late in the season. If you are a Drake Maye believer, then you would say his weapons were below average, and his best receiver was not deemed eligible until late in the season.

There was also a new offensive coordinator, which means Maye was learning a new system with those aforementioned below-average weapons. Taking all of that into consideration, the numbers were still elite. Prior to pro-days, Maye was a solid-size favorite to go second overall to Washington.

Now that the odds have flipped in favor of Daniels, you are telling me the Patriots are going to pass up on Maye? If so, for whom? I don’t see it.

The Patriots are in full rebuild mode and are in a position where they should take the best player available. The signing of Jacoby Brissett allows a bridge for Maye to sit for a year and learn rather than getting thrown in the fire with a bottom-five roster in the NFL. I’m not sure the Pats can pass up on a potential franchise QB with the tools of Maye.

Number 10 Overall Pick: Brock Bowers (+250)

Since his sophomore season, Bowers has been a potential top-five pick. I think Bowers finds a home in New York. The numbers and production speak for themselves as far as his pass-catching ability, but they do not discredit him as a blocker. He played in a pro-style offense in college and graded out as a decent blocker.

While you are drafting Bowers for his pass-catching and playmaking, his versatility sets him apart. Not to mention, the Jets recently added Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith. It’s never a bad idea to draft for depth in the trenches. They can do that in round two.

With Aaron Rodgers’ return, a retooled offensive line, and a division up for grabs, I think adding a playmaker like Bowers is the way to go. Garrett Wilson and newly acquired Mike Williams will allow Bowers to work the middle of the field and be a security outlet for Rodgers on his patent scramble drills.

Along with the wide receivers, the Jets will be able to run a lot of two tight end sets. Tyler Conklin had a solid year with 61 catches for 620 yards. We saw it work wonders for the Bills, and I think Bowers can do the same for the Jets.

Number 5 Overall Pick: Joe Alt (+450)

The first draft of the Harbaugh era begins! What better way to start it than to draft the best offensive lineman in the draft? It is not a sexy pick for fans or fantasy owners, but protecting Justin Herbert is priority number one.

We know what Harbaugh and the new offensive coordinator want to do; that is not a secret. You can’t ground and pound with a wide receiver on the outside, which is why Alt, at this price, is a great value. He will round out my NFL Draft Prop Bets!

The number is this big due to the trade factor, in my opinion. Do the Vikings love JJ McCarthy enough to move up six spots? I think they have, but there is not a team ahead of them that needs a quarterback. So unless they get word of another team like Denver or Seattle moving up, I think they stay put to select their franchise offensive lineman.

Chargers are favored (-140) to draft an offensive lineman with their first pick, and Joe Alt is a hefty (-450) favorite to be the first offensive lineman drafted. If you believe there will be a trade and the Chargers move down, I do think that has some value.

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