The uncertainty of not knowing who is in and out that plagues NBA bettors all year has come to a close. Well, there are a few exceptions with Giannis, Kawhi, and, to a lesser extent, Embiid. Everyone else should be good to go, which makes it easier for us to handicap these games. Here is my official NBA Play-In Tournament preview!
The play-in tournament has added so much more intrigue and chaos to end the season. I say that positively because since the play-in started, we have had highly competitive games leading up to the playoffs. We saw the Miami Heat go from play in to NBA Finals last year as well as the Lakers making it to the Western Conference Finals.
Teams see that and know that they could be in those same positions. This year is no different, as we have possibly the most loaded field we have had since the play-in began. In the eight-team field, we have three teams who have been to the NBA Finals in recent history and numerous All-NBA players. We have eight teams but only four spots. Who gets them? Let’s discuss.
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NBA Play-In Tournament Preview, Analysis, & Best Bets
Eastern Conference Odds to make playoffs – Play In teams only
Atlanta Hawks (+650)
Chicago Bulls (+490)
Miami Heat (-590)
Philadelphia 76ers (-1500)
Can Miami do it again? After going from play-in to the NBA Finals, they bring back the bulk of their team PLUS a rookie contributor. They will also be getting Tyler Herro back for a full run, which adds another dimension to their offense.
The odds indicate that the Heat and 76ers are likely to slot into the last two spots. They will square off Tuesday for the right to be the 7th seed while the loser gets the winner of Hawks and Bulls.
If you like the 76ers, just lay the money line against the Heat. Do not lay that big of a price when you can lay -195 for essentially the same result. The 76ers’ success is dependent upon the health of Embiid’s knee or his overall health.
He did not play in the season finale and would be off of five days’ rest, which is an advantage to the 76ers. I think they handle the Heat and move on to play an incredibly fun series with the Knicks.
That leaves us with three teams and one remaining spot. The Heat await the winner of the Bulls and Hawks who both are no strangers to the play-in. You can make a case for either side but I think the Bulls ultimately get it done.
They won the regular season series 2-1, and although Atlanta is the more talented team, I think the Bulls’ defense can limit Atlanta’s guard play.
The 8th seed will be decided in South Beach, which is exactly what happened between these two teams last year. The two split the season series into four fairly competitive games, and that is what I expect in this battle for the 8th seed.
In the two home games, the Heat were -3.5 and -5.5, and I would expect the number to be somewhere in the middle. For that reason, I think there is value in my best bet.
Best Bet: Chicago Bulls To Make Playoffs – Yes (+500)
After breaking down the field, the Bulls scream value to me at this number. They get a Hawks team against whom they have had success and struggled (18-23) on the road.
The Bulls will be returning home after a three-game road trip, and while they don’t have the best home record, I think the atmosphere will be outrageous for this game. The point spread indicates this will be a competitive game, and there is no team more battle-tested in the clutch than the Bulls.
Not to mention, all we need is one win to be able to profit off of this number. I won’t get into the full breakdown of how but the simple handicap is that you bet +500, the Bulls win and you should be able to lay a decent moneyline with the Heat to lock in a profit.
I do believe that the Bulls can win in Miami, and due to the recent success of the Heat in these situations, I think we are getting a good price on the Bulls.
Western Conference Odds to make playoffs – Play In teams only
Golden State Warriors (+320)
Los Angeles Lakers (-550)
New Orleans Pelicans (-450)
Sacramento Kings (+390)
We have a rematch of an electric seven-game series last year between the Kings and Warriors and a rematch of a game we saw on Sunday. The winner of the Lakers and Pelicans will face a well-rested Denver team.
I’m not trying to put any conspiracy theories on everyone, but it would be beneficial to both teams to lose and play a home game for the 8th seed. No disrespect to OKC, but if either the Pelicans or Lakers had to choose their opponent, it would be the Thunder over Denver every time.
Obviously, doing that is playing with the basketball gods, but is the risk worth the reward? We will just have to wait and see, but I do think both teams will compete, and the Lakers will come out on top.
The Warriors and Kings are no strangers to one another. A lot has changed since last year’s series, including the Kings’ loss of one of their better scorers. The two teams split in the regular season.
Three of the four games were decided by a point, so I think we can expect another tightly contested matchup.
Best Bet: Warriors To Make Playoffs – Yes (+320)
This is likely the last dance for the Warriors as currently constructed. The climb to the playoffs will not be easy, having to win back-to-back road games. Although their first road game does not require a ton of travel, they still have performed well on the road. I would rather them go to New Orleans than Los Angeles but both will be winnable games.
Warriors are 3-1 against the Lakers and 1-2 against the Pelicans this year. All regular season games are not created equal, but in a one-game setting, I trust Stephen Curry more than nearly anyone. I will take the value with Steph and the last dance Warriors.