Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors love home run props. Here are three home run props to play today, April 11, across all MLB action.
“Yep. Man, that ball got out of here in a hurry. Anything that travels that far ought to have a damn stewardess on it, don’t you think?” – Crash Davis, “Bull Durham”
Dongs. Bombs. Nukes. Piss Missiles. Rockets. Home runs have different names for different people, but we can all agree – they’re fun as hell to watch. And even more fun to bet on.
So, with that said, here are three guys I’m targeting today to hit balls to the moon (and a backup prop to accompany them). Short slate, but we found some gems.
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Three Players Hitting Bombs Today: Home Run Props for April 11, 2024
Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies)
The Caveman himself is off to a strong start, batting .333 with 3 HRs and a team-leading OPS of .942. He has also always hit RHP better than lefties, and last year was no exception.
He draws the Pirates’ Jared Jones – who has been pretty impressive in his first two starts. That being said, under the hood tells a different story. Jones has a hard-hit rate of 57% and an absurd barrel rate of 21.4%. Small sample size, yes. But you can’t have that at Citizen Bank Park. Weather reports are for 14mph winds blowing out and to left field, so we’re targeting Marsh – one of the few Phillies hitters capable of hitting opposite as a lefty.
Oh, and Marsh is hitting .400 with a 1.183 OPS against RHPs this season. Marsh’s three home runs this season have been off two four-seam fastballs and a slider. What pitches make up 86% percent of Jones’ pitch arsenal? A four-seam fastball and a slider. Marsh is hitting one to the moon.
Brandon Marsh o1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs +125 MGM/DraftKings (1 unit risk)
HR +625 MGM (.1u risk)
Marcus Semien (Texas Rangers)
Oakland A’s LHP JP Sears stinks. If you want nerd stats to back it up, then here are the numbers: 48% hard-hit rate, 4.5% K rate, and an xFIP this season of 7.16. He stinks, lefty or righty.
Marcus Semien does NOT stink. He’s also been on fire lately, hitting his total bases prop in 6 of his last 10 games overall and 5 of his last 7 against Oakland dating back to last season. He’s murdering them in this series too: 6 hits, 6 total bases in the first two games of the series.
We’re going to take his bases prop, not his HRR prop, because Garcia behind him has a terrible history against Sears, and we don’t want to risk stranding Semien on the base paths. I’d rather just worry about Marcus doing his job. Sears doesn’t walk or strike out a lot of guys, and Semien is pretty elite at waiting for his pitch.
Sears is bottom in the league in xSLG at .594. Expect Semien to continue to mash against Oakland and probably send one to Mars. Lock in Semien’s as you’re building your home run props card for the April 11 slate.
Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases -125 FanDuel (to win 1u)
HR +340 FanDuel (.15u)
Bobby Witt, Jr (Kansas City Royals)
For a year, I tried to push a campaign to give Bobby Witt the nickname “Downtown” so we could all call him “Downtown” Bobby Witt a la “Major League 3: Back to the Minors,” but it never really manifested. I digress…
Witt is the heart and soul of this Royals team that just clobbered the Astros. I expect the beatings to continue since Witt has an OPS of 1.072 vs righties and Hunter Brown has a hard hit rate of 52% in his two starts this year. He’s one of the few pitchers who found a way to get worse in their second start. This isn’t a “just this year” thing either, Brown was way worse against RHBs last year too.
The entire Royals lineup is hitting right now and they have the highest hard hit rate in the majors. That spells trouble for Hunter Brown. With guys like the Italian Stallion Vinnie Pasquantino batting behind him, I’m confident Witt will find a way to score a run while on base if he doesn’t hit Hunter Brown’s fastball over the Kaufman Stadium fence and into an Arby’s parking lot, thus scoring himself.
Bobby Witt Jr. o2.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs +110 DraftKings (risk 1U)
HR +550 MGM (.1u)
Here’s a super easy link to add all the plays mentioned above to your bet slip like a true tech-savvy degenerate.
We’ll be back with more later on, but for now, enjoy these home run props for today, April 11. AND LET IT RIDE!
