Only four teams have survived and advanced to this point of March Madness, and the Sports Gambling Podcast Network breaks down the action with our NCAA Tournament Final Four preview and best bets.
This first matchup on Saturday night pits together the tournament’s Cinderella in (11) North Carolina State against (1) Purdue. It should also be a great battle in the post between Zach Edey and DJ Burns Jr.
In the second game, (1) Connecticut needs two more wins in the quest for a repeat, which starts against (4) Alabama from the West Region.
We have a pair of top seeds against surprising challengers. Even with lopsided spreads, I do believe there’s plenty of value on the board.
So, let’s dive into our NCAA Tournament Final Four preview and best bets.
NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview and Best Bets
(1) Purdue vs. (11) NC State
Spread: Purdue -9
Total: 146
Time: 6:09 PM ET
Network: TBS
All eyes watching this game will be on the two star big men, but there is another key similarity between the teams: both Purdue and NC State love to shoot mid-range shots.
According to Haslametrics, these two programs rank in the top 100 in the country in mid-range attempts per 100 possessions. However, they are also even better defensively in the same statistic.
So, I think this could lead to a slow start in this game.
For my first Final Four best bet, I’ll take the first half to fall under the total of 68.5 at DraftKings.
Another key point of attack for both offenses is on the glass. They are two strong teams when it comes to potential quick points from second chances and second chance conversion percentage.
I’m not expecting either to have much success, as they are both inside the top 60 in the nation in those defensive rebounding metrics. Neither squad likes to run at a very high tempo, likely due to wanting to throw the ball inside as much as possible.
The other bonus for our bet is where the Final Four is hosted this year. The semifinals and championship are played at State Farm Stadium, home of the Arizona Cardinals.
This will give some weird shooting sight lines with a court added to a large NFL stadium. It all just points to a slow start in the opener of the Final Four.
(1) UConn vs. (4) Alabama
Spread: UConn -11.5
Total: 160
Time: 8:49 PM ET
Network: TBS
Are you paying a high tax to back UConn? You are, but it doesn’t mean that I’m racing to the betting window to bet against the Huskies.
This led me to look into the player props market in this matchup. I believe it sets up well for one of the nation’s top big men to dominate on the boards.
So, my second Final Four best bet is for Donovan Clingan to fly over his rebound total of 9.5 at DraftKings.
Alabama struggled to rebound defensively. Since February, Houston was the only NCAA Tournament team that allowed a higher rate of offensive rebounds to opponents than the Crimson Tide.
The issues have allowed opposing centers to cover this same rebound prop against the Tide. Both Ian Schieffelin (Clemson) and Armando Bacot (North Carolina) finished with double-digit rebounds and combined for an average of 11.5 boards.
In this tournament, Clingan has averaged 10.0 rebounds per game, and he has only played over 25 minutes in just one contest.
With Alabama’s game plan likely featuring many shots from beyond the arc, the Huskies rank first in Haslametrics in opponents’ three-point percentage against average opponents. This should mean plenty of opportunities defensively for Clingan to get rebounds.
When you combine that with the offensive boards, I like the value here for UConn’s center to dominate on the glass.
