With the UFC loading up their UFC 299 and UFC 300 pay-per-views, we were bound to have some weak Fight Night lineups mixed among them. This would be one of them. UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs Namajunas has a former two-time UFC champion in the main event, but the rest of the card is spotty at best. But we’re going to win money on it, regardless. Here are my UFC Vegas 89 predictions and best bets.
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UFC Vegas 89 Predictions & Best Bets
Amanda Ribas (+180) vs. Rose Namajunas
I’m tentatively taking big underdog Amanda Ribas in the main event, and it seems many are in the same boat, as Ribas’s odds were up at +223 just a couple of days ago. My pick of Ribas is more of a fade on Rose Namajunas than it is an endorsement of Ribas (although I do like her as a fighter).
Former two-time champ Namajunas hasn’t won a fight since November 2021 and seems to always have one foot in the sport and one foot out. This has resulted in some uneven, odd performances in the cage. Namajunas dialed in and, at the top of her game, would have no problem beating – and probably finishing – Ribas. But you can’t count on that these days, so I’m willing to toss the dice on the gritty, game underdog.
Justin Tafa (+160) vs. Karl Williams
Things drop off precipitously in the main event, a heavyweight matchup between Karl Williams and short-notice replacement Justin Tafa. Tafa is filling in for his brother, Junior, who filled in for him on short notice last month. Did you get all that?
Regardless of the late notice, I’m still taking the heavy-hitting Justin Tafa as an underdog in this fight. Williams hasn’t shown he’s anything special at heavyweight, and Tafa is one of the hardest hitters in the sport. If he’s going to win, it’s going to be via T/KO (all seven of his pro wins have come via knockout), so take that prop at +240.
Billy Quarantillo (-120) vs. Youseff Zalal
Now I’m obeying my stats, and I’m fading the short-notice fighter who would be Youseff Zalal in this featherweight main card fight. He’s making his return to the UFC after previously being cut on less than two week’s notice.
Plus, I think Billy Quarantillo is the better fighter in this matchup. He’s the better and more dangerous striker and is very good on the ground as well (as is Zalal). Plus, Billy Q has the superior resume of the two men.
Darya Zheleznyakova (-200) vs. Montserrat Rendon
The UFC must be high on the debuting Darya Zheleznyakova because they just outright signed her without first making her jump through the hoops of The Ultimate Fighter or Dana White’s Contender Series that most prospects need to go through. And I’m high on her in his fight, as well.
She’s going to outclass Montserrat Rendon on the feet. That is pretty much assured. Rendon is a grappler with no finishing ability who didn’t really impress in her UFC debut. Plus, Zheleznyakova is seven years younger, which is a pretty big advantage.
Mohammad Usman (+125) vs. Mick Parkin
I can’t believe I’m taking Mohammad Usman in a fight, but he’s continued to prove me wrong, so if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. And it’s not like Mick Parkin is a world-beater.
Usman’s nickname, ‘The Motor,’ is ironic because he really doesn’t do much in the cage. However, he’s got that one-shot knockout power that you’re looking for in a heavyweight underdog. He’s worth a gamble here at plus money.
If you’d like even more information on UFC Vegas 89, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping four episodes weekly to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
