March Madness Betting Strategy: 2024 Ten Commandments

March Madness Betting Strategy

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It’s every gambler’s favorite time of year March Madness! Of course before hopping in to some March Madness betting it’s worth a read of our March Madness ‘Ten Commandments’ covering our best March Madness betting strategy tips for 2024.

Make sure to enter our free March Madness contest for a chance to win $2000.

Check out our printable NCAA Tournament Bracket!

1. THOU SHALT BET ALL 36 1H UNDERS

Overall | 225-157-14 | 58.82%
2023 | 18-16-2 | 52.94%
2022 | 20-14-2 | 59%
2021 | 26-7-3 | 79% *1st 10 round 1 hit parlayed
2020| DNP
2019 | 17-18-1 | 49%
2018 | 24-12-0 | 67%
2017 | 14-22-0 | 39%
2016 | 22-13-1 | 63%
2015 | 20-14-2 | 59%
2014 | 16-18-2 | 47%
2013 | 24-10-2 | 71%
2012 | 21-15-0 | 58%
2011 | 21-14-1 | 60%

2. THOU SHALT RESPECT BALANCED TEAMS

Only 2 times NCAA champ finished outside the top 20 Ken Pom for AdjO & AdjD efficiency

2014 Uconn 39 O 10 D
2021 Baylor 2 O 22 D

TOP Contenders (Teams in Ken Pom top 20 for AdjO & AdjD)

Connecticut o1 d11
Arizona o7 d12
Auburn o10 d7
Houston o14 d1

Fringe Contenders (Top 20 for AdjO + Top 50 AdjD)

Purdue o3 d21
Duke o8 d25
Gonzaga o9 d47
BYU o11 d50
Creighton o12 d23

Fringe Contenders (Top 50 for AdjO + Top 20 AdjD)

Tennessee o25 d3
North Carolina o22 d5
Saint Mary’s o46 d16
Marquette o21 d19

Teams to FADE (Top 20 AdjO Outside Top 100 AdjD)

Alabama o2 d105
Florida Atlantic o15 d106

Teams to FADE (Top 20 AdjD Outside Top 100 AdjO)
Virginia o192 d6

3. THOU SHALT FADE THE FIRST-ROUND UPSET

Underdogs of at least 7.0 points that are off a straight-up win as an underdog of at least 6.0 points have gone a woeful 14-26 ATS over their last 37 attempts

2023 3-0 ATS
2022 1-1 ATS
2021 2-3 ATS

Underdogs coming off a double-digit point win outright are 3-20 SU + 6-17 ATS in their next game (last 23)

1-2 ATS | 0-3 SU
2022 1-1 ATS

4. THOU SHALT IGNORE THE SEED NUMBER

5 V 12 SEED

5 SEEDS 4-0 SU/ATS 2023

Since 2012 – SU 25-19 – ATS 19-24-1. 2019 was the first time in 30 years that no No. 12 seeds scored an outright win in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. 2023 was the 2nd

4 V 13 SEED

At least one 13-seed has won a game in the tournament in 11 out of the last 14 years.

2 V 15 SEED

6 15-seeds have advanced to the second round in the last 10 tournaments.

5. THOU SHALT RESPECT THE PLAY-IN-GAME

Only once since 2011 did a play-in team not make the round of 32
5 times a play-in team reached the Sweet Sixteen
2 times a play-in team reached the Final Four

6. THOU SHALT NOT BELIEVE IN FAIRY TALES

Since 1985 only 5 teams outside the top 3 seeds have won the National Championship:
1985 Villanova (8)
1988 Kansas (6)
1997 Arizona (4)
2011 Connecticut (7)
2023 Connecticut (4)
Since 1985, 27 of 160 Final Four Teams have come from outside the top 4 seeds

7. KEEP HOLY THY FREE THROW PERCENTAGE

77% free throw percentage is the cutoff for teams that are good against ATS. In addition teams that shoot +7% better than their opponent are bet on.

8. THOU SHALT FADE MAJOR CONFERENCE TOURNEY WINNERS

Arizona good example from 2023.

9. THOU SHALT NOT WORSHIP FALSE IDOLS

Best NCAA Tourney Records ATS:
Andy Enfield USC 9-3 ATS (0-3 Last 3)
John Calipari 31-23-3
Matt Painter PUR 19-13 ATS
Jim Boeheim SYR 55-36-3 ATS

Worst NCAA Tourney Records ATS:
Jamie Dixon TCU 9-17 ATS
Rick Barnes TEN 8-19
Mark Had A Few 19-27-1 ATS
Tony Bennett 8-14 ATS

10. NOBODY SHALT GIVE A CRAP ABOUT YOUR BRACKET

Don’t root for your bracket, just root for your bets.

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