While all the hype is being directed at next month’s UFC 300, we get a banger of a PPV this weekend in Miami. Each of UFC 299’s 14 fights is meaningful, no more so than the main event for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Here are my UFC 299 predictions and best bets.
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UFC 299 Predictions & Best Bets
Sean O’Malley (-270) vs. Marlon Vera
Our main event is a rematch four years in the making. In Part 1, Marlon Vera beat Sean O’Malley via TKO after immobilizing him with a leg kick and finishing him off with strikes. But much has changed since then, most notably O’Malley becoming the UFC Bantamweight Champion.
And I think O’Malley will retain his title – and avenge his lone loss – by beating Vera on Saturday in Miami. The champ has greatly improved his all-around game since then, while Vera is still pretty much the same fighter.
O’Malley is the bigger, longer, more dangerous striker who is very well-coached. As long as he has figured out how to counter the leg kick (and even if he hasn’t), he should prevail.
Benoit Saint Denis (-205) vs. Dustin Poirier
The odds in the co-main event are baffling, to say the least. Prospect Benoit Saint Denis is getting a massive step up in legend Dustin Poirier, and he’s a massive favorite?! This is quite unexpected.
Odds aside, I’m still picking the ‘God of War’ to win the biggest fight of his career. Poirier is 35 and coming off being the recipient of a vicious head-kick knockout.
BSD is dangerous everywhere, well-rounded, and impossible to finish, but he’s still a bit of an unknown entity. While I think he can win, this isn’t a line I’m willing to put any serious money down on
Michael Page (+115) vs. Kevin Holland
Yet another betting line that I find a bit surprising. Perhaps it’s due to Michael ‘Venom’ Page making his UFC debut in this fight. But if you’ve seen any of his various fights in Bellator, you know that he’s a bad matchup for Kevin Holland.
If Holland were smart, he would turn this into a grappling match and get Page down to the mat. But Holland is known to fight as the spirit moves him, so I can see him standing and trading with a dangerous striker like Page.
Plus, there’s also no guarantee he’ll be able to successfully grapple MVP. If you want a spicier play, take Page via T/KO at +475
Maycee Barber (-200) vs. Katlyn Cerminara
Katlyn Cerminara (nee Chookagian) returns to the cage for the first time since October 2022, and she’s being served up to a young killer in Maycee Barber. Not the ideal welcome-back party for her.
Barber, 10 years her junior, is going to put a relentless pace on Cerminara, and is the far more physical and dangerous fighter. She should be able to bully her way to a victory on Saturday night.
Michel Pereira (-145) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
I think there’s real value in Michel Pereira at -145 in his early prelim fight against Michal Oleksiejczuk. In fact, it was my ‘lock’ pick on the latest episode of the MMA Gambling Podcast.
While Pereira is known for his flashy striking and knockouts, he’s also a low-key good grappler and wrestler. And while he can surely best Oleksiejczuk on the feet, he might be better served to take him down to the mat where he’ll have an even bigger advantage. Either way, Pereira should be the better man.
If you’d like even more information on UFC 299, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping four episodes weekly to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
