NFL Free Agency is here already, and the rumors after the NFL Combine are flying. In this article, we are going to make our NFL free agency predictions and look at the updated betting odds. The list I am going with is based on what is available on DraftKings Sportsbooks. Other players might be available on other sites. This does include Justin Fields, who is not a free agent as well. The Bears are expected to draft Caleb Williams and make Fields available.
NFL Free Agency Predictions and Betting Odds: Saquon to Houston?
The NFL Combine and the Senior Bowl are known to get the rumor mills jumping. Some of the rumors are smoke, and some are real. Not everything comes to fruition, but Vegas is also tuned in to what is being heard.
We have seen a lot of shifts in the markets for some top names. Denver had no choice but to cut Russell Wilson. The Giants have buyer’s remorse over Daniel Jones. Atlanta has emerged as a favorite for Kirk Cousins.
Let’s examine the most updated odds on some of these top players. We can then discuss a few deciding factors and make some predictions.
We will look at some safe bets and predictions, but we will also look at the long shots that could make us some money. The vast majority of free agents return to their team, almost always making this the safest bet.
However, this is not always the case, and there is good reason to believe that some players are gone.
Russell Wilson (Age 35) – Denver Broncos
| Russell Wilson – For Which Team Will Russell Wilson Take His First Snap in the 2024/25 NFL Regular Season | |
| PIT Steelers – 135 | LV Raiders + 250 |
| ATL Falcons +450 | MIN Vikings +600 |
| NE Patriots +850 | WAS Commanders +1500 |
| TB Buccaneers +1800 | TEN Titans +3000 |
| NY Giants +3000 | CHI Bears +4000 |
| CAR Panthers +4000 | NO Saints +5000 |
| SEA Seahawks +6000 | NY Jets +7500 |
Wilson went from one of the NFL’s top stars to the NFL’s top joke. There’s been alot of memes talking about him leaving Denver with all of the cash. There are plenty of reminders of how the Denver Broncos got fleeced by Seattle.
Wilson did not live up to the billing, no matter how you look at it. Denver traded away two first-round picks, two second-round picks, one fifth-round pick, and three players for Russell Wilson and a fourth-round pick.
The #Broncos acquired Russell Wilson in March 2022 with 2 years, $51M remaining on his contract.
With his release this March, Denver will have paid out $124M to Wilson.
Seattle won the trade.
Wilson won the negotiation.— Spotrac (@spotrac) March 4, 2024
The top four teams, as far as odds are concerned, are the Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and Minnesota Vikings.
The odds could change tremendously if we see Justin Fields traded to any of these four teams. The rumors regarding Kirk Cousins going to Atlanta have also increased Wilson’s odds to Minnesota.
All four of these teams see themselves as playoff teams, and only Atlanta has a top-10 pick. Atlanta could try to trade up in the draft to acquire one of the top three or four quarterbacks. But that would cost them precious resources as far as draft capital now and next year.
Minnesota, at 11, Denver, at 12, and Las Vegas, at 13, could all try to move up to get ahead of Atlanta at eight, or maybe as high as five to get ahead of the New York Giants. This would likely be for J.J. McCarthy unless Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels fell past three.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Safe Bet – Pittsburgh Steelers (-135)
Pittsburgh is sitting at the 20 spot in the NFL Draft, and it would cost a lot for them to move up to get ahead of all of the aforementioned teams. This team made the playoffs last year behind a great defense and running game.
They just hired Arthur Smith for the offensive coordinator position, and this will continue to be their formula. Wilson is a veteran, and he showed improvements from 2022 to 2023. In 2023, Wilson was first in touchdowns under pressure and the second-best passer rating under pressure. Russ ranked fifth in TD/INT ratio.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Long Shot – New York Giants (+3000)
The Giants are in the market for a quarterback, but they are also likely picking their fourth option. Brian Daboll went from coach of the year to being close to the hot seat.
We could see the Giants try to bench Daniel Jones to keep him healthy so they can get out of his contract. Wilson is getting paid so much by Denver this year that he may not have a huge price tag. New York could then use that top-six pick on a number-one wide receiver that they desperately need.
Justin Fields (Age 25) – Chicago Bears (Final Year)
| Justin Fields – For Which Team Will Justin Fields Take His First Snap in the 2024/25 NFL Regular Season | |
| ATL Falcons +125 | PIT Steelers + 250 |
| CHI Bears +275 | MIN Vikings +550 |
| LV Raiders +650 | DEN Broncos +1400 |
| NY Giants +1400 | NE Patriots +1600 |
| WAS Commanders +3000 | TB Buccaneers +3000 |
| CLE Browns +5500 | SEA Seahawks +7000 |
| NO Saints +8000 | NY Jets +10000 |
The Chicago Bears have a decision to make. The assumption is that they draft Caleb Williams. This would make Justin Field available on a one-year deal with a potential fifth-year option next year.
Looking for potential suitors is a repeat of the Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins suitors. The difference here is that the Bears likely make the call, and some teams have an edge in draft capital.
Looking at the trade value chart as a guide, the Patriots’ second-round pick is worth 560 points. Minnesota, Atlanta, and Las Vegas are all between 480 and 460.
A team like Pittsburgh with a later second-round pick would have to add more, maybe a fourth-round pick, to compete with the others. They happen to have two fourths. Atlanta has two thirds, and Minnesota has 0 thirds.
Atlanta has been the most logical spot for a long time. Fields is also a Georgia native who grew up not far from Atlanta. The coaching hires of Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson would leave us with a Sean McVay-type offense, which would lead us to think of quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford.
Pittsburgh would make a lot of sense, and the fit in the Arthur Smith offense is pretty great. But Russell Wilson won’t cost them a pick, and it seems like a logical landing spot.
Fields would be in a great spot with some weapons and a running game. The team has a solid defense, but it still needs more offensive-line help.
The Las Vegas Raiders just hired Luke Getsy for their offensive coordinator position. It’s not really an inspiring hire after being let go by the Bears. We also heard a lot of rumors of discontent between Fields and Getsy. This wouldn’t make a lot of sense for Fields or Getsy.
Denver is now looking for a new quarterback. They also seem to be in rebuild mode and the tear-down phase. Acquiring a quarterback with a Day 2 pick makes more sense if they are a rookie.
Minnesota is trying to keep Cousins, but it sounds like their contract discussions have hit a snag. I still think they should keep Kirk in Minnesota, and Fields is more likely a backup option for Pittsburgh and Minnesota.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Safe bet – Atlanta Falcons (+125)
Atlanta has a nice set of young weapons, and they added Justin Fields to the mix. Fields will get a second chance at home behind a fantastic offensive line. Atlanta has a solid defense, and this is by far the best situation Fields has been in. It is also not a long-term commitment. The Falcons can test things out with Fields before committing financially.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Long Shot – Cleveland Browns (+5500)
Cleveland could use a backup plan for Deshaun Watson. Joe Flacco, at his age, could be the backup plan, but a very short-term plan. Flacco is rumored to be trying to stay in Cleveland or possibly follow Alex Van Pelt to New England.
He also has ties back to Baltimore, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Los Angeles Rams. But Cleveland truly understands the importance of a background quarterback.
Cleveland will invest in a backup, and they are also staring Deshaun Watson’s contract in the face with regret. If they could use Fields’ current salary to help them swallow some of the Watson contract.
Kirk Cousins (Age 35) – Minnesota Vikings (Unrestricted Free Agent)
| Kirk Cousins – For Which Team Will Kirk Cousins Take His First Snap in the 2024/25 NFL Regular Season | |
| ATL Falcons -225 | MIN Vikings +150 |
| PIT Steelers +1000 | LV Raiders +1000 |
| DEN Broncos +1500 | NE Patriots +1000 |
| SF 49ers +2200 | WAS Commanders +2500 |
| TEN Titans +3500 | TB Buccaneers +4000 |
| NY Giants +5000 | CHI Bears +5000 |
| CAR Panthers +7500 | SEA Seahawks +7500 |
Every four years, we have a leap year, and Kirk Cousins is a free agent. He has absolutely crushed it every time around and he is expected to do it again. Things are a little different at 35 years old and coming off of Achilles surgery.
But he also controls the market. Good quarterbacks rarely hit the market, yet Kirk Cousins does. You can take that however you like.
Kirk Cousins is beloved in Minnesota, and it is hard to see him leaving. But the Atlanta Falcons rumors are coming on strong. Zac Robinson has a connection back to McVay.
Cousins would get a pristine situation with a great supporting cast. He also goes to a very winnable division. Staying in the NFC, he also stays away form the Mahomes, Burrow, and Jackson gauntlet.
He is looking for a Super Bowl, so I am eliminating half of these teams. Cousins is the piece that controls the board. I believe he is the top guy on the board for Atlanta, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh.
But only one will get him, and the others will need to pivot. Minnesota has also been linked to J.J. McCarthy.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Safe Bet – Minnesota Vikings (+150)
A player returning to their own team is almost always the safest bet. In this scenario, you get the plus odds. As exciting as Atlanta might be, this is the safe bet with Cousins’ deep connection with Minnesota, the staff, and the team.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Long Shot – New York Giants (+5000)
Like I said with Russell Wilson. The team is likely to put Daniel Jones on ice like Jimmy Garoppolo, with Tommy DeVito as the backup. New York is a year away from winning a playoff game. Adding Cousins allows them to use their draft picks to get him some weapons and protection.
Saquon Barkley (Age 26) – New York Giants (Unrestricted Free Agent)
| Saquon Barkley – For Which Team Will Saquon Barkley Take His First Snap in the 2024/25 NFL Regular Season | |
| HOU Texans -200 | LA Chargers +275 |
| DAL Cowboys +900 | NY Giants +550 |
| CHI Bears +900 | BAL Ravens +1200 |
| PHI Eagles +3000 | MIN Vikings +3500 |
| GB Packers +4000 | CIN Bengals +5000 |
| LV Raiders +5500 | BUF Bills +5500 |
| WAS Commanders +5500 | TEN Titans +5500 |
Barkley and the New York Giants were able to work this out last off-season. But, they never agreed on a long-term deal. They may not this year, but Barkley is beloved in the locker room and a captain on this team. He’s a fan favorite, but he would be a huge loss, especially if he goes to a rival team like Dallas or Philadelphia.
Houston makes a lot of sense, especially considering their salary cap situation. This is a playoff team that could afford to overspend a little at a position like running back.
This staff came from San Francisco, which invested heavily in Christian McCaffrey. C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are already recruiting Barkley. Other teams are doing their best, and several suitors are rumored.
The Houston Texans CJ Stroud reportedly recruiting Giants Saquon Barkley pic.twitter.com/FDPYXSCViB
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) March 2, 2024
NFL Free Agency Prediction Safe Bet – New York Giants +550
Houston does appear to be the safest bet, but Saquon has always been a Giant. He is even from New York and grew up a Giants fan. He held out very briefly last year, and his value goes beyond the field.
The home team’s being the fourth-best odds doesn’t feel safe. But these are quite the odds for a player to return to a team he has been with for so long. This is the marquee name of the NFL free agency predictions and will be the top target for many teams.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Long Shot – Las Vegas Raiders +5500
If Josh Jacobs does not return, the Raiders could end up looking for a new back. Zamir White is there, but Saquon would be a big help for a young quarterback.
Whether it is O’Connell, Fields, or a rookie, Barkley would offer a major lift. Giants’ great Antonio Pierce and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham are very familiar with Barkley.
Derrick Henry (Age 30) – Tennessee Titans (Unrestricted Free Agent)
| Derrick Henry – For Which Team Will Derrick Henry Take His First Snap in the 2024/25 NFL Regular Season | |
| BAL Ravens +110 | DAL Cowboys +425 |
| MIA Dolphins +1000 | HOU Texans +1000 |
| TEN Titans -+1000 | LA Chargers +1200 |
| PHI Eagles +1200 | MIN Vikings +1500 |
| GB Packers +1500 | LV Raiders +2500 |
| KC Chiefs +2500 | CIN Bengals +2500 |
| CHI Bears +2500 | BUF Bills +2500 |
The King already gave his goodbye speech to Tennessee, and it would be hard to see him returning at this point. The Ravens and Cowboys have been linked from the start. Both are contenders, and both landing spots have running back needs. Henry would land behind good offensive lines, with good quarterbacks and top-three offenses.
Miami and Houston both offer great situations for Henry. He is looking for a championship, and I don’t foresee him going to a non-contender. It would be really hard for Titans’ fans to swallow seeing him go to Houston, but it is a real possibility.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Safe Bet – Baltimore Ravens (+110)
Baltimore makes so much sense, and a Henry plus Lamar Jackson backfield is scary. Derrick Henry could be a piece that helps get Baltimore over the top. This is a power run offense, and Henry is the definition of a power back. He matches their identity and would be a touchdown monster in this system.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Long Shot – Buffalo Bills (+2500)
Buffalo has a good running back, but Henry would be a great compliment to this backfield. Josh Allen would not have to be used as the heavy as much, either.
I could see Philadelphia as another option, but Buffalo could be an option for Henry. Trying to tackle Derrick Henry in January or February in Buffalo would be a nightmare. Henry is an older back but a big piece of the NFL free agency predictions equation.
Josh Jacobs (Age 26) – Las Vegas Raiders (Unrestricted Free Agent)
| Josh Jacobs – For Which Team Will Josh Jacobs Take His First Snap in the 2024/25 NFL Regular Season | |
| LV Raiders -320 | LA Chargers +750 |
| HOU Texans +850 | BAL Ravens +1100 |
| DAL Cowboys +1300 | CHI Bears +2000 |
| PHI Eagles +2200 | MIN Vikings +2200 |
| GB Packers +2500 | CIN Bengals +2500 |
| TEN Titans +2500 | TB Buccaneers +2500 |
| NY Giants +4000 | DEN Broncos +5000 |
Jacobs was tagged last year, held out, and the Raiders figured it out. They did not get a long-term deal done, but it feels like one is imminent. Josh has been such a big part of this team’s offense and the core of the team with Maxx Crosby.
He would have plenty of suitors, but how much of a market would he have? Unless someone is offering him a much bigger contract, I would expect him to return to Las Vegas.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Safe Bet – Las Vegas Raiders
It’s always the safest bet. I do not think he is leaving. Houston would be my second favorite option as a backup plan for Saquon. Vegas retained their interim head coach and is looking for them to do the same with Jacobs. He was drafted there and will continue his legacy as a Raider.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Long Shot – Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings are releasing Alexander Mattison, and they struggled to find a running game last year. Ty Chandler played well in spirit, but they could use a workhorse.
Josh Jacobs would take the pressure off of whoever the quarterback was and provide some balance to this offense. Minnesota is a playoff team, and this offense did well when they relied on a lead back.
Jacobs could find himself in a great situation in Minnesota, which could also have a rookie quarterback.
Stefon Diggs (Age 30) – Buffalo Bills (4 Years Left on Contract – Opt-Out in 2025)
| Stefon Diggs – For Which Team Will Stefon Diggs Take His First Snap in the 2024/25 NFL Regular Season | |
| BUF Bills -200 | KC Chiefs +1000 |
| HOU Texans +1000 | DAL Cowboys +1200 |
| CHI Bears +1200 | BAL Ravens +1300 |
| NE Patriots +1500 | CAR Panthers +1800 |
| ATL Falcons +2500 | ARI Cardinals +2500 |
| NY Giants +3000 | IND Colts +5000 |
| GB Packers +5000 | CIN Bengals +7500 |
There is a lot of smoke regarding Stefon Diggs’ dissatisfaction with Buffalo. Even his brother went on social media to say he needed to leave. The Bills have had changes for their offensive coordinator role, but is that enough? Also, can they afford to keep Stefon Diggs?
There is a reason he made this list. Buffalo just released a lot of players, and Diggs was not one of them. But his contract is a concern with their current cap situation and adds to these rumors.
Stefon Diggs is included in this NFL free agency predictions article because of his contract. He is essentially in the last year of his deal. The team has an opt-out in 2025 for three years and $67,985,000. The dead cap on that would be $22,247,000. A team acquiring him could also use that opt-out to renegotiate or get out of the contract.
But, his cap hit this year is almost $28 million with a dead cap of over $31 million. This season’s salary ($18 million) becomes fully guaranteed on March 17th, 2024.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Safe Bet – Dallas Cowboys (+1200)
Buffalo, of course, is the safest bet, but the Cowboys would be my second favorite. His relationship with his brother, joining a contender and being with an established quarterback.
There are so many boxes checked, and Diggs does appear to be wearing out his welcome. He was traded out of Minnesota, and he could be traded again. Stefon paired with CeeDee would be a scary combination.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Long Shot – New York Giants (+3000)
The Giants need a true number-one wide receiver, and we know Brian Dabboll loved Stefon Diggs. The general manager and the coach are familiar with Diggs and Buffalo.
They were also there for his best years. The Giants could end up adding more than one pass-catcher. Diggs reuniting with Daboll would be an interesting option. Regardless of the quarterback, the Giants need pass-catchers, and Diggs is a good one.
Chris Jones (Age 29) – Kansas City Chiefs (Unrestricted Free Agent)
| Chris Jones – For Which Team Will Chris Jones Take His First Snap in the 2024/25 NFL Regular Season | |
| KC Chiefs -350 | CHI Bears +425 |
| HOU Texans +225 | DET Lions +600 |
| WAS Commanders +1000 | IND Colts +1000 |
| ARI Cardinals +1500 | TB Buccaneers +2000 |
| SF 49ers +2000 | LV Raiders +2000 |
| TEN Titans +3000 | JAX Jaguars +3000 |
| CIN Bengals +3000 | ATL Falcons +4000 |
Jones held out last year and then balled out to get his money back. The rumors are that he and the Chiefs are already working on a deal. But last year, they were not able to work it out, and they did not choose to tag him. We will see if they can get it done, but I am very optimistic about this one.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Safe Bet – Kansas City Chiefs (-350)
It is hard to see Jones leaving, especially after the Super Bowl, but he wants to get paid. They have chosen not to tag him, and they have given up their leverage.
Again, this makes me confident that a deal is in the work. But we could see a team try to lure him away with serious offers.
NFL Free Agency Prediction Long Shot – Las Vegas Raiders (+2000)
Chris Jones is a rare difference-maker at his position. Taking him off the Chiefs and adding him to any team is huge. This is the type of move that helped the San Francisco 49ers overtake the Philadelphia Eagles.
It is rare that a player at his age already has three Super Bowl rings. Money could be the main motive if he leaves, a situation to think about when making any NFL free agency predictions.
