Before we get to March Madness, we get to experience Arch Madness with the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. This year’s MVC is surprisingly deep and could manage to steal an at-large bid if Indiana State gets bounced. All games will be played at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, and the tournament will run from March 7th through March 10th. Let’s dig into the 2024 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament preview, picks, and best bets.
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2024 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Preview, Picks & Best Bets
Will the Indiana State Sycamores dominate the tournament the same way they ran through the conference? Could Drake come out on top? Does Bradley or Northern Iowa have a shot as a dark horse?
The Favorite: Indiana State +155
The Indiana State Sycamores are the wagon of the Missouri Valley Conference. They finished 26-5 overall and 17-3 in the conference. Their only conference losses came against Drake on the road, Illinois State at home, and Southern Illinois on the road.
The Sycamores are led by sophomore center Robbie Avila. Avila averaged 17.6 points, 6.9 boards, and 3.9 assists per game this year. He’s an ESPN+ superstar and could become a national sensation if the Sycamores earn a berth in the National Championship Tournament.
It’s not a guarantee that the MVC will get two teams in the tournament, so the Sycamores should play to win. They’re a top-50 team in the country and are out to prove that they’re the best in the Missouri Valley Conference.
Indiana State had the best record in the regular season, and a conference tournament championship could add momentum heading into The Big Dance. At plus odds, the Sycamores are the best bet on the board in the MVC.
Other Contenders
This year’s Missouri Valley Conference is one of the deepest group of teams they’ve had. Drake and Bradley are in the top 100 in KenPom. Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, and Belmont are all in the 100-125 range. This is a quality mid-major conference, and there are options to challenge Indiana State.
Drake is at +220 and is the two-seed in the tournament. The Bulldogs are one of the best offensive teams in the country, and are one of a few teams in the MVC that can go shot for shot with Indiana State.
The Bradley Braves are the three-seed and sit at +360 odds. They are capable of lighting it up from beyond the arc, but struggle at rebounding. Bradley also has two losses to both Indiana State and Drake. The odds might look good, but the Braves are a stay away, even at better than 3-to-1 odds.
Northern Iowa are a quality squad, but they’re facing long odds. The Panthers were also a wagon at home but struggled outside of Cedar Falls.
Dark Horse: Southern Illinois +1300
The Southern Illinois Salukis is the sixth seed in the MVC tournament. They start with a very winnable game against UIC and then draw the Bradley Braves in the quarterfinals.
The Salukis lost twice to Bradley, but one was a one-point loss at home. Southern Illinois can hang with the Braves, and it’s tough to beat a rival three times in a year.
They’ll have to go through Drake in the semifinals and then whoever comes out of the top half of the bracket in the Finals. The Salukis only lost by four on the road at Drake and have a win over Indiana State at home.
It’s not impossible to think Southern Illinois can go on a run, and at 13-to-1 odds, they’re worth a sprinkle as a dark horse.
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